Caracal Global founder Marc A. Ross was on Bloomberg Radio's Sound On program last week.
Hosted by Kevin Cirilli, I was joined by Josh Kraushaar of National Journal and Steven Dennis of Bloomberg News.
Topics discussed: the new Democrat Congress, Speaker Pelosi, the government shutdown, and Apple in China.
You can listen here: https://bloom.bg/2CUaITv
"Being genius is not enough, it takes courage to change people's hearts"
Caracal Global Daily
January 7, 2019
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross
Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia
Caracal Global Daily = News + Analysis at the Intersection of Globalization + Disruption + Politics
TOP FIVE
✔️ Eurasia Group's top risks for 2019
✔️ US-China trade talks
✔️ ‘Yellow Vests’ staying power
✔️ How Clemson competes with Alabama
✔️ Musk breaks ground on Tesla's Shanghai factory
ROSS RANT
Sound On: New Dem Congress, gov shutdown, Apple: I was on Bloomberg Radio's Sound On program last week. Hosted by Kevin Cirilli, I was joined by Josh Kraushaar of National Journal and Steven Dennis of Bloomberg News. We discussed the new Democrat Congress, Speaker Pelosi, the government shutdown, and Apple in China. You can listen here: https://bloom.bg/2CUaITv
GLOBALIZATION
Top risks for 2019: Eurasia Group's annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of the year: http://bit.ly/2TApyE9
1. Bad seeds
2. US-China
3. Cyber gloves off
4. European populism
5. The US at home
6. Innovation winter
7.Coalition of the unwilling
8. Mexico
9. Ukraine
10. Nigeria
"Pretty much everything that we monitor geopolitically that matters in the world is presently heading in a negative direction. It’s been 21 years since I started the firm, that’s never been true before." -@ianbremmer
Trump sees China’s weakness as US strength: NYT reports, Trump is largely ignoring economic warning signs in the US, saying China is too weak to keep up the trade fight.
Trade talks resume between US, China amid optimism about ending dispute: WP reports, the meetings in Beijing will be the first face-to-face talks since President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed to a cease-fire in their rancorous trade dispute.
George Magnus: The rhetoric is changing but Xi Jinping is staying the course
Xi cannot risk caving in to anything that threatens China’s core interests.
Industrial policy designed to boost China’s technological and military capacity is not up for negotiation.
FT: Xi Jinping’s top economic adviser unexpectedly attends trade talks
Liu He’s appearance at working level discussions highlights China’s desire to do deal.
US Navy ship sails in disputed South China Sea: Reuters reports, a US guided-missile destroyer sailed near the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea claimed by China as US officials join talks in Beijing during a truce in a bitter trade war.
China approves $125bn of rail projects in stimulus: FT reports, easure to boost economy is latest move to give country breathing space in trade war.
AFP: Taiwan arrests BASF engineers for 'leaking tech' to China
‘Yellow Vests’ show staying power: After another weekend of protests, France’s “yellow vests” are establishing themselves as an unavoidable force in French politics and a durable threat to the presidency of Emmanuel Macron.
NSA Bolton: Team Trump won’t withdraw US forces from northern Syria unless Turkey offers a firm commitment not to target America’s Kurdish allies.
China, Russia, and EU edge away from petrodollar: Nikkei reports, rise of US unilateralism raises concern about relying on greenback for oil trade.
Gabon foiled an attempted military coup on Monday, arresting several plotters just hours after they took over state radio in a bid to end 50 years of rule by President Ali Bongo's family.
DISRUPTION
WSJ: The rivalry that shouldn’t be: How Clemson competes with Alabama
The Tigers make 50% less money than the Crimson Tide but recruit and fundraise with creativity.
The Tigers’ broad reach is partly the byproduct of expanded social-media marketing efforts, spurred by Clemson’s hiring five years ago of a former Tampa Bay Rays employee named Jonathan Gantt to lead a small staff of content creators. Their job: to concoct such vivid portraits of life at Clemson that recruits would want to visit.
Privacy becomes a selling point at tech show: AFP reports, Apple is not among the exhibitors at the 2019 Consumer Electronics Show, but that didn't prevent the iPhone maker from sending a message to attendees on a large billboard. "What happens on your iPhone stays on your iPhone," Apple says in the message to be seen by tens of thousands attending the Las Vegas tech show.
US gadget love forecast to grow despite trust issues: AFP reports, the US tech industry is weathering a crisis of confidence over data protection and a difficult geopolitical situation, with record sales expected in 2019, organizers of the Consumer Electronics Show said Sunday. The Consumer Technology Association (CTA) predicted that US retail revenue in the sector would climb to a record high $398 billion this year.
POLITICS
Trump tries to sell border ‘barrier’ to Democrats: FT reports, White House drops demand for concrete wall as shutdown heads into third week.
Biden sees himself as Democrats’ best hope in 2020, allies say: NYT reports, Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s entry into the presidential race would set up a primary clash between a veteran Washington insider and more liberal contenders.
Jonathan Bernstein: Does Joe Biden have a chance?
Democrats like him. But he’d likely command only factional support – and not a winning coalition.
Reuters: Democrat Warren takes economic message to Iowa in kickoff to 2020 race
California: Democrat Gavin Newsom will be sworn in as California’s 40th governor today.
FT: US-China: farmers count the cost of the trade war
America’s soybean exports to the world’s biggest market have all but disappeared, leaving farmers dependent on a $12bn bailout
“As soybeans have remained the most exposed commodity in the trade war, investors should monitor this market in assessing the state of Sino-US trade negotiation,” says Citigroup.
“The longer this goes on, we’re going to see bankruptcies go up and then it’s going to bleed into the banking sector,” says Neel Kashkari, the Minneapolis Fed president.
Edward Luce: The fading of the US multinational lobby
Trump is no longer listening to big business
It used to be said that what was good for General Motors was good for America. Donald Trump’s administration believes that what is bad for Apple is bad for China.
Business pocketed Trump’s corporate tax cut last year — and the rolling deregulation. They must swallow the rest.
How Washington plans to regulate Big Tech: FT reports, Silicon Valley is steeling itself for 2019 to be the year when Washington takes action over how tech companies balance the way they use data against their customers’ right to privacy.
“Secret algorithms, concealed monitoring & potential marketing & more, require privacy rights and protection,” tweeted Richard Blumenthal, a Democratic senator, referring to Facebook.
Chinese tech investors flee Silicon Valley as Trump tightens scrutiny: Reuters reports, new Trump administration policies aimed at curbing China’s access to American innovation have all but halted Chinese investment in U.S. technology startups, as both investors and startup founders abandon deals amid scrutiny from Washington.
COMMERCE
WSJ: CBS News names Susan Zirinsky as its first female president
CNBC: Elon Musk breaks ground on Tesla's Shanghai factory
"China is becoming the global leader in electric vehicle adoption, and it is a market that is critical to Tesla's mission to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy" -- Elon Musk
After four years of planning, Tesla Inc. finally broke ground on its planned $5 billion factory in the world’s biggest auto market.
Nikkei: China tech to 'stay low' at CES amid simmering trade war
Nucor said it would spend about $1.35 billion to build a plate mill in the Midwest, taking advantage of federal tax cuts that has resulted in windfall gains for several companies.
Eli Lilly buying Loxo Oncology in $8B deal.
Marriott: Hackers accessed more than 5 million passport numbers during November’s massive data breach.
Stores in the US, 2016:
Subway: 26,932
YUM! Brands: 17,504
McDonald's: 14,155
Dollar Tree: 14,108
Dollar Tree: 13,322
Starbucks: 13,172
Dunkin' Brands: 11,366
CVS Health: 9,769
7-Eleven: 8,256
Burger King: 8,121
Verizon: 6,839
Wendy's: 5,739
HT NRF
CULTURE
Golden Globes: “Green Book” emerged as the big winner, taking home three trophies, including best comedy.
HBD: Nicolas Cage, actor, Leaving Las Vegas (1995), 55
SPORT
HBD: Lewis Hamilton, racing driver, five-time Formula One world champion (2008, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018), 34
College Football Final
Oklahoma vs Clemson +7 | OU 60
8:00 pm ET on ESPN
NYT: Alabama’s toughest competition might be its second string. Or its third
Word of the day = defenestration
Marc Ross Daily
December 12, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross
Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia
Marc Ross Daily = Business News at the Intersection of Globalization, Disruption, and Politics
TOP FIVE
✔️ UK’s May to face a no-confidence vote
✔️ Chinese state tightens grip 40 years after Deng's reforms
✔️ Marriott breach is traced to Chinese hackers
✔️ “proud to shut down the government for border security.”
✔️ Superdry has more than 550 stores
GEOECONOMICS
UK’s May to face no-confidence vote amid Brexit disarray: WSJ reports, British Prime Minister Theresa May is set to face a vote of confidence in her leadership after rebel lawmakers from her Conservative Party triggered a vote that could further destabilize the already chaotic Brexit process.
Theresa May vowed to contest a vote of confidence in her leadership today with “everything I have got.”
Today’s PMQs will proceed.
Are there 158 MPs willing to vote against May?
Vote will happen this evening in London - results expected around 3:00 - 4:00 pm ET
Tory Eurosceptics trigger vote of confidence to seize control of EU divorce.
If PM May survives the vote, under party rules she cannot be challenged again for 12 months - meaning she will most likely lead the Tories into the next general election.
May's team discussed forcing a no-confidence vote weeks ago to strengthen her leadership.
If May loses, there will be a multi-round leadership election in which any Tory MP who can find themselves a seconder can stand.
Backbench MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, chair of the Brexit-supporting European Research Group, says Theresa May should resign.
Why now? Under Conservative party rules, a leadership challenge is initiated if 15 percent of Tory members of parliament — at the moment 48 MPs — write letters to the chairman of the party’s 1922 Committee of backbench MPs demanding a confidence vote. The 1922 chairman, Sir Graham Brady, determines the date of a confidence vote “as soon as possible in the circumstances prevailing.”
@NicolaSturgeon: Today is a stark reminder that the UK is facing chaos and crisis entirely because of a vicious civil war within the Tory party. What a self-centred bunch they are. They all need to go, not just the PM.
British Chamber of Commerce: "At one of the most pivotal moments for the UK economy in decades, it is unacceptable that Westminster politicians have chosen to focus on themselves, rather than on the needs of the country. The utter dismay amongst businesses watching events in Westminster cannot be exaggerated."
Who could replace May? Boris Johnson, Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove, Amber Rudd, or Matt Hancock
Christmas market attack: A gunman killed three people and injured 13 in a suspected terror attack near a Christmas market in the French city of Strasbourg.
Nikkei: Chinese state tightens grip 40 years after Deng's reforms https://s.nikkei.com/2QqMBnz
"On Dec. 22, 1978, the Communist Party set out a strategy of "reform and opening up," a Deng-led attempt to turn the page on decades of economic stagnation that followed a series of disastrous political campaigns, including the Cultural Revolution and Great Leap Forward."
"Under President Xi Jinping, the state has asserted tighter control over the economy, partially reversing forces set in motion by Deng. As characterized by the phraseguojin mintui -- meaning "the state advances as the private sector recedes" -- the Chinese Communist Party and the state are tightening their grip on business."
"Xi Jinping is a fervent disciple of Mao Zedong, not Deng Xiaoping," said Willy Lam, an adjunct professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong's Centre for China Studies.
Eurasia Group on the road ahead for the US and China: "It is very unlikely that the US and China will reach an agreement on trade issues by their agreed deadline of 1 March; the more likely scenario is extended negotiations that last through the first half of the year as ... Trump and Xi ... try to avoid further escalation without making deep concessions.
WP: China’s judgment on Huawei case: Anger, patriotism and iPhone boycotts
Huawei CFO released on C$10 million bail: FT reports, Meng Wanzhou must surrender passports and pay for private security guards to accompany her.
Trump said he would intervene in the Justice Department's Meng Wanzhou case if it would serve national security interests or help close a trade deal with Beijing.
WTF?!?
LAT: US investigators point to China in the Marriott data hack affecting 500 million travelers
NYT: Marriott breach is traced to Chinese hackers as USprepares crackdown
The hack was part of a Chinese intelligence effort that also breached health insurers and security clearance databases, people briefed on the inquiry said.
Japan unveils a plan for first aircraft carrier since World War II.
"Once upon a time, the job of an economist was to talk about economics. Now, most of the job seems to be trying to second-guess what politicians will do next." -- UBS' Paul Donovan.
AMERICAN POLITICS
NYT: Trump threatens shutdown in combative appearance with Democrats
“proud to shut down the government for border security.”
‘This has spiraled downward’: Democrats introduce Trump to divided government: WP reports, during 17 extraordinary minutes of raised voices, pointed fingers and boorish interruptions, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer gave the president a taste of Washington’s new dynamic.
WH COS: Trump says he is looking at 10 or 12 candidates for chief of staff job and Kelly will stay on indefinitely.
Today: Sentencing of Michael Cohen, Trump’s former personal lawyer, after his guilty plea to tax fraud and campaign-finance crimes.
FL-SEN: Rick Scott spent a record $64 million of his own money to win the Florida Senate race.
@Redistrict: In January, House Dems will represent:
79% of Asians
78% of Whole Foods locations
72% of Latinos
66% of Clinton voters
66% of African-Americans
60% of college grads
54% of all Americans
45% of whites
39% of Trump voters
27% of Cracker Barrel locations
20% of America's land area
Why Beto O'Rourke in 2020 = small donors and Facebook: He raised $80 million for his Senate bid - most of that came from online donations. He used Facebook to live-stream videos of everything from his campaign rallies to eating lunch at Whataburger.
Sherrod Brown: Is looking rumpled a path to the presidency?
No.
MoveOn 2020 presidential straw poll:
O’Rourke 15.6
Biden 14.9
Sanders 13.1
Harris 10
Warren 6.4
Brown 2.9
Klobuchar 2.8
Bloomberg 2.7
Booker 2.6
COMMERCE
Tencent Music public offering priced at $13 per American depositary share.
McDonald's to dial back on antibiotics in its burger meat.
Hitachi nears deal worth up to $7 billion for ABB's power grid business.
Superdry has more than 550 stores in 49 countries.
Google has 'no plans' to launch a Chinese search engine.
Morgan Stanley will lead Uber's IPO and rake in the most fees from a listing valued at as much as $120 billion.
Verizon has cut the value of its Oath media business—a pastiche of recently acquired firms including AOL and Yahoo—by $4.6 billion (almost half its value).
TRENDS + BUZZ
India media size: With nearly 500 million internet users and roughly 530 million smartphone users, India is the second-largest online and smartphone market in the world next to China.
Roughly 40% of India's total population is using smartphones and is accessing the internet.
Cars on the road: About 500 million cars were added to the global car fleet between 2000 and 2017, 75% in developing economies — and 40% in China alone, according to the IEA’s 2018 World Energy Outlook. Today, there are 1.1 billion cars on the road, and the fleet is expected to grow a whopping 80% by 2040. Much of that growth will take place in India, China, and other developing economies.
Throw the bird in the lake: Big e-scooter has unleashed about 1,000 two-wheelers in Oakland — with dozens of them ending up at the bottom of Lake Merritt. This Instagram account is dedicated to discarded scooters: https://www.instagram.com/birdgraveyard/
Beauty: The global beauty market is worth $532 billion.
Paper towels: The world spends about $12 billion on paper towels for home use annually.
Baby boomers are aging alone more than any generation in US history: About one in 11 Americans age 50 and older lacks a spouse, partner or living child.
CULTURE
Time's 2018 'Person of the Year': Killed and imprisoned journalists - "The Guardians."
Kathie Lee Gifford to leave NBC's 'Today' Show in April.
Google's top US trending search queries for 2018:
1. World Cup
2. Hurricane Florence
3. Mac Miller
4. Kate Spade
5. Anthony Bourdain
6. Black Panther
7. MegaMillions Results
8. Stan Lee
9. Demi Lovato
10. Election Results
SPORT
The Ringer's favorite sports moments of 2018: From the Philly Special to UMBC’s upset to whatever J.R. Smith did in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, here are the sports moments that defined our year: http://bit.ly/2RT5Q6b
More Philly Special: UPenn basketball upsets No. 17 Villanova, 78-75, for the first time since 2002.
Champions League:
Today: All matches @ 3:00 pm ET
Ajax vs Bayern München
Manchester City vs Hoffenheim
Young Boys vs Juventus
Valencia vs Manchester United
Champions League = Through to round of 16: Ajax, Atlético Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern München, Borussia Dortmund, Juventus, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Paris Saint-Germain, Porto, Real Madrid, Roma, Schalke, Tottenham Hotspur
Champions League = Can still reach the round of 16: Lyon, Shakhtar Donetsk
Will transfer to Europa League round of 32: Benfica, Club Brugge, Galatasaray, Internazionale Milano, Napoli, Valencia