Let's go for three: China's new family planning

CNN: China's new three-child policy sends baby and maternity stocks soaring

"Shares of Goodbaby, which makes children's products, jumped 31% in Hong Kong. Suzhou Basecare Medical Co., which offers genetic testing for couples looking to undergo IVF, rose 15%."

China's government announced Monday (May 31, 2021) the relaxation of strict family planning restrictions and now allowing couples to have three children, per an official Xinhua post translated by Channel News Asia.

Starting three decades ago, China's central government planners have told married couples of the Middle Kingdom that "one child is enough."

But the central government planners were wrong. So in 2016, it allowed parents to give birth to a second child.

Now in 2021, the central government planners are wrong again.

At a meeting of the country's most senior officials, an agreement was reached for even greater relaxation of birth-control regulations, all in an attempt to help China fulfill its goal of "actively coping with an aging population."

Released in early May 2021, the once-a-decade census showed China is facing a deepening demographic predicament - will China grow old before it grows rich?

Only 12 million babies were born last year in China, a drop of almost 20% from 2019 and the country's lowest population growth since the 1960s when it was reeling from an extensive famine.

The Economist reports, at 1.3 children per woman, China's total fertility rate is already among the world's lowest. It is also well below the 2.1 necessary to keep a population from falling over time.

Officials now fear that the economic growth that has powered China to new heights will stall if more babies don't appear.

In 2012, after expanding for 50 years, China's labor pool reached peak employment and began to shrink.

Getting more babies will be a challenge.

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Engagement. What is it good for? Absolutely nothing.

Biden's Asia Czar has spoken and has declared the era of engagement with China is donezo.

Speaking at an event hosted by Stanford University, Kurt Campbell, the US coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs on the National Security Council, said, "The period that was broadly described as engagement has come to an end." From now on, US policy toward China will now operate under a "new set of strategic parameters," Campbell said, adding that "the dominant paradigm is going to be competition."

Not that this new pronouncement should surprise anyone paying even scant attention to the US-China relationship.

From a 2020 Pew Research survey, most of the surveyed countries have an unfavorable opinion of China. Australia, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United States, South Korea, Spain, and Canada all reported negative views on China - all at their highest points since Pew Research began polling on this topic more than a decade ago.

Earlier this year, Pew Research found most Americans support a tough stance toward China from human rights to economic issues.

According to this latest Pew Research survey, roughly nine in ten US adults (89%) now consider China a competitor or enemy rather than a partner.

Many Americans surveyed also support taking a firmer approach to the bilateral relationship, whether by promoting human rights in China, getting tougher on China economically, or limiting Chinese students studying in the United States. More broadly, 48% think limiting China's power and influence should be a top foreign policy priority for the US, up from 32% in 2018.

Under Xi Jinping's leadership, the intensity toward China has only grown.

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Designed by a communication executive for other communication executives, it is the only US-China commercial relationship service that puts communications first.

Carcacal’s China Communications Intelligence service is actionable insights, media trend-spotting, and senior executive advisory to help you better think about and speak on the US-China commercial relationship.

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Will China grow old before it grows rich?

The latest census numbers out of China have reignited this long-running debate: No doubt China's population is aging, seeing its slowest growth in decades.

China's overall population did continue to grow in 2020, rising to 1.412 billion people, up from 1.4 billion in 2019.

Today, 264 million people, or roughly 18% of China's population, are over 60. For a reference point, this population number is nearly identical to Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Italy combined.

China's seniors live longer and healthier lives, with demographers predicting that by 2050, seniors will make up a third of China's total population.

This demographic problem of an aging population and falling birth rate will shift more attention and resources to the nation's retirees - think less investment in infrastructure and more money spent on healthcare.

This so-called "gray-haired" economy will reach nearly a trillion dollars this year. From a consumer spending and marketing perspective, look for growing demand from this age cohort from companies providing travel, hospitality, health, education, and e-commerce services.

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To read the full post, you need to join Carcacal’s China Communications Intelligence service.

Designed by a communication executive for other communication executives, it is the only US-China commercial relationship service that puts communications first.

Carcacal’s China Communications Intelligence service is actionable insights, media trend-spotting, and senior executive advisory to help you better think about and speak on the US-China commercial relationship.

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