Global Political Intelligence Daily
September 10, 2021
What’s happening inside North Korea?
TOP FIVE
1. Thinner Kim steals spotlight at North Korean parade
2. Russia + Belarus launch massive war games
3. US + Mexico restart high-level economic talks
4. The fight over Western Sahara is heating up again
5. Ford said it will stop manufacturing cars in India
ASIA
Thinner Kim steals spotlight at North Korean parade: AP reports North Korea has held a parade showcasing military dogs and virus workers in orange hazmat suits, but leader Kim Jong Un still managed to seize the spotlight by looking thinner and more energetic than he has in years.
North Korea forgoes the usual muscle-flexing in a military parade: NYT reports the parade, which marked the government’s 73rd anniversary, was seen as a celebration of those who have borne the brunt of the regime’s effort to rebuild the economy amid sanctions and the pandemic.
What’s happening inside North Korea? Since the pandemic, the window has slammed shut.
WP
Japanese escapee sues North Korea for decades of misery: DW reports North Korea escapee Hiroko Saito says she and 97,000 others were deceived into relocating to the North in the 1960s with promises of "paradise on Earth." Instead, she suffered starvation, repression, and loss.
Xi Jinping hasn’t set foot outside China for 600 days
Bloomberg
+ Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will be touring South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, and Cambodia from Friday onwards
Xi Jinping's pivot to the state: Kevin Rudd's address to the Asia Society, New York.
Asia Society
Cathie Wood’s Ark cuts China positions ‘dramatically’: Closely watched investor has switched to stocks ‘currying favor’ with Beijing after tech crackdown.
FT
Will Xi move on Taiwan? History warns he might: Niall Ferguson: After Afghanistan, Chinese leader may conclude the US won't intervene, scholar says.
DW
Nikkei: Taiwan Navy launches 'carrier killer' with 28 missiles
+ Ta Chiang to be deployed to island's northeast, where Chinese ships pass
Not yet a failed state, Malaysia is decaying rapidly: Affirmative action and the costs of discrimination.
Imran Shamsunahar
Ford said it will stop manufacturing cars in India. With accumulated losses of more than $2bn in ten years, a market share of just 1.6%, and an abysmal track record for not using its full manufacturing capacity, the American carmaker has run out of gas. Jim Farley, Ford’s boss, called it a “difficult but necessary” decision. General Motors, a rival, left India in 2017.
Nikkei: Ford takes exit from Indian auto production
+ US automaker racked up $2bn in losses over 10 years
EUROPE
ECB to slow bond-buying as Europe’s economy improves: FT reports that Lagarde insists ‘the lady isn’t tapering’ and warns the eurozone is ‘not out of the woods.’
Siri, show me a ‘forceful and persistent’ ECB: Central bank is pulling back but needs to convince markets its asset purchase program will not end prematurely.
Frederik Ducrozet
+ Under the Indo-Pacific strategy, the European Commission will unveil next week, the EU will seek digital partnership agreements with Japan, South Korea, and Singapore.
Poland warned no EU recovery funds without judicial reform: FT reports the justice commissioner calls for fines on Warsaw and says Brussels ‘at end of the road.’
Russia's St. Petersburg honors victims of Nazi siege: The Russian city of St. Petersburg is honoring the victims of an 800-day Nazi siege during World War Two. Food was strictly rationed, and around a million people died. For the survivors of the blockade, bread is more precious than they can express.
DW
Putin’s eternal reign: Russia's parliamentary elections will be held later this month. Many believe one winner has already been decided: Vladimir Putin and his United Russia party.
DW
Nikkei: BRICS summit: Putin blasts US over Afghanistan 'crisis'
+ Leaders urge 'inclusive intra-Afghan dialogue' to ensure stability, law, and order
AFP: Russia, Belarus launch massive war games – worrying NATO
Reuters: Russia and Belarus agree closer energy, economic integration
Russia, Belarus agree on economic integration pacts: WSJ reports Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko, signaled plans to deepen ties between the two countries, a major step forward in the Kremlin’s long-held goal of exerting greater influence over its smaller neighbor.
Afghan takeover fuels Greece-EU border patrol spat: Politico reports with Greece bearing the brunt of EU-bound refugees, the country wants more support from the bloc.
"Nothing is as dangerous for the state as those who would govern kingdoms with maxims found in books." -- Cardinal Richelieu
The Socialist ‘Femme Française’ Anne Hidalgo launches bid to succeed Macron
The Times
AP: France pays emotional tribute to New Wave actor Belmondo
Axios: France to offer free contraception for women up to the age of 25
Court blocks Lafarge bid to scrap Syria crime against humanity charge: Reuters reports Lafarge lost a bid to dismiss a charge of complicity in crimes against humanity in Syria's conflict on Tuesday when France's highest court said the matter should be re-examined, overturning an earlier ruling.
+ Lafarge, now part of Holcim, accused over Syrian plant
+ Company admitted Syrian subsidiary paid armed groups
+ Lafarge denies complicity in crimes against humanity
+ Court says payment enough to characterize complicity
The Times: Williamson, Patel, and Raab facing demotion as prospect of snap reshuffle looms
‘We are party of low taxation,’ says Johnson after tax rise: Guardian reports the prime minister also stresses the role of the private sector in continuing to provide social care.
Tories trailing Labour with lowest backing since election
The Times
Brexit – Trouble in store: Why your supermarket shelves are empty and other reasons Global Britain is a rotten deal.
Nigel Warburton - TNE
British Council to shut offices in Europe and beyond amid financial crisis: Politico reports cultural and diplomatic institution to close offices in 11 countries from Belgium to the United States.
Green and amber lists could go in travel rules shake-up
BBC
+ The UK’s medicines regulator has granted emergency approval for the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines to be used as booster shots.
+ People in Scotland will need proof they have been fully vaccinated before they can enter nightclubs and many large events from 1 October.
Germany investigates suspected Russian cyberattacks: DW reports the German chief prosecutor's office has opened investigations into several recent cyberattacks targeting politicians ahead of Germany's upcoming election. Russian intelligence is suspected of being behind the breaches.
Europe does not need four more years of ‘Merkelism’: Germany must shoulder more of the burden of defending an open international system.
Philip Stephens
NORTH AMERICA
US, Mexico restart high-level economic talks after 4 years: AP reports the United States and Mexico restarted high-level economic talks Thursday after a four-year pause as top advisers to presidents Joe Biden and Andrés Manuel López Obrador expressed eagerness to make headway on issues important to both nations such as infrastructure, trade, and migration.
Reuters: Mexico and US agree to work on supply chains, migration
Bloomberg: AMLO allots $32 billion for Pemex to boost flagging oil output
+ Proposed 2022 budget is 17% higher than this year’s plan
+ Exploration and production investment up 26% to $18 billion
Canada's main parties jump aboard spending bandwagon as election nears: Reuters reports with less than two weeks before Canadians vote in a federal election, the race is too close to call. But what is certain is that for the first time in recent memory, no matter which party wins, the government spending taps will be wide open.
America and the world: The real lessons from 9/11: America risks swinging from hubris to muddle.
The Economist
9/11: The man who told Bush ‘America is under attack’: Andrew Card, George W Bush’s chief of staff, endured a lot of the president’s anger that day.
The Times
We are more secure than we were on 9/11: Remember the victims and the heroes, but most of all remember the feeling of national unity.
Condoleezza Rice
The new age of American power: Despite forecasts of decline following the Afghanistan withdrawal, the US military is planning another century of global domination.
Adam Tooze
Look who’s backing Biden’s foreign policy: The Kochs: The US withdrawal from Afghanistan represents a victory for Republican isolationists. It also ties their credibility to the performance of a Democratic White House.
Politico
AFP: US calls on G7 to quickly implement global tax reform
The EU and US confirm the inaugural transatlantic Trade and Tech Council meeting. The first gathering will take place in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on September 29-30.
+ The US chose Pittsburgh to be the place to start a transatlantic united front against China, saying the city “reinvented itself as a hub for technology.”
US and China need to repair tech ties: Microsoft President: Brad Smith says Big Tech must behave responsibly and adhere to regulations.
Nikkei
Trump wanted out of Afghanistan. Now he wants to bomb it. As corners of the Republican Party take whacks at his record, the former president is convening a shadow national security team to discuss Afghanistan.
Politico
+ The fence around the Capitol will likely be re-erected ahead of the Sept. 18 rally, according to CNN.
The real Biden presidency emerges: It is not a colossus bestriding the political universe, rather a middling administration, at best, that will have trouble imposing its will even on its own party in Congress.
Rich Lowery
@tnewtondunn: Some significant COP26 news: President Biden is coming to Glasgow. A big relief for the PM, who invited him months ago. A needy shot in the arm for the summit too, which is in trouble after talks for a deal with China + others stalled.
Axios: Biden to mandate COVID vaccines for federal workers, with no option for testing
+ Biden's job approval ratings have plunged by 10 percentage points since early summer; his declaration of victory over Covid on July 4 was a huge miscalculation, as was the inept evacuation of Afghanistan.
+ The US has recorded more than 40 million COVID cases – one in five confirmed cases globally.
When was the first US COVID death? CDC investigates 4 early cases: The deaths, spread out across four states in January 2020, have become part of a scattershot collection of clues about the virus’s early spread.
NYT
Bloomberg: Centrist Democrat backs Powell for second term as fed chair
+ Jon Tester’s endorsement bolsters Powell’s chances in Senate
+ Progressives have urged Biden to choose a more liberal nominee
Politico: ‘We’re in a really good place,’ Newsom says as recall looms
Biden to campaign Monday with Newsom as recall nears end: AP reports California Gov. Gavin Newsom will get a boost in the final days of a campaign that is trying to kick him out of the office from the nation’s most prominent Democrat: President Joe Biden. Biden will join the first-term Democratic governor in the Southern California city of Long Beach on Monday, the day before voting ends. He’s the last of a string of prominent Democrats who have come to the deep-blue state to assist Newsom as he faces a recall election.
Biden to campaign with Newsom on Monday in Long Beach: LAT reports Biden’s appearance for Newsom will come just days after Vice President Kamala Harris visited California — all in the hopes of galvanizing Democrats against a Republican taking over the country’s largest state.
Newsom stakes his future on one simple argument: Fear a GOP governor
LAT
Former Vice President Mike Pence will join Fox & Friends for an interview this morning, his first national TV appearance in nearly a year.
+ "There are a lot of reasons to like the Republicans’ chances of winning a majority next year." -- Sabato's Crystal Ball
Digital currencies pave way for deeply negative interest rates: If people can’t hoard physical money, it becomes much easier to cut rates far below zero.
James Mackintosh
Facebook's latest attempt to build a crypto empire meets familiar skepticism in Washington
WP
California aims to ban recycling symbols on things that aren’t recyclable: NYT reports the well-known three-arrows symbol doesn’t necessarily mean that a product is actually recyclable. A new bill would limit the products allowed to feature the mark.
REST OF THE WORLD
The globe’s new public health strategy: Every country for itself: When international cooperation was needed, rich regions looked after their own. Poor countries have taken note.
Politico
Bolsonaro’s sound and fury can’t hide his failures: Flag-wearing loyalists turned out for the embattled Brazilian president this week. Moderate voters and investors are harder to keep onside.
Clara Ferreira Marques
Reuters: Bolsonaro steps back from Supreme Court battle, boosting Brazil markets
Pro-Bolsonaro truckers strike, paralyzing roads: DW reports truckers in Brazil have blockaded roads in support of President Jair Bolsonaro. Other truck drivers have also come under attack by Bolsonaro supporters, causing paralysis on federal highways.
Reuters: Brazil's Bolsonaro says striking truckers to stand down on Sunday
Bloomberg: Egypt-Turkey ties could be restored this year, premier says
+ Restoration of ties hinges on resolving outstanding issues
+ No countries should be physically present in Libya: Madbouly
Why the fight over Western Sahara is heating up again
Bloomberg
AFP: Ethiopia says Tigray rebels 'routed' in Afar; rebels deny
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Curation and commentary by Marc A. Ross | Founder @ Caracal
