Global Political Intelligence Daily
Demystifying global politics, power, and policies
September 22, 2021
Australia, Boris Johnson, Canada
TOP FIVE
1. Politics trumps money in Chinese markets
2. Submarine crisis is way deeper than French pride
3. Justin Trudeau keeps his job, but loses some luster
4. UN assembly’s opening featured a single female speaker
5. A US government shutdown on October 1 is a genuine threat
ASIA
Australia sub deal should upset China, not France: AUKUS attempts to fulfill two important goals: multilateral partnerships to counter Beijing, and making Britain relevant after Brexit.
Hal Brands
Xi’s designs on Taiwan will outlast US resolve: China believes the alliances designed to contain it are brittle and that time is on its side.
Roger Boyes
Xi stays away from Evergrande but calls for inclusive growth at UN: Nikkei reports the Chinese leader sticks to 'common prosperity' theme, even as debt crisis looms.
In a pre-recorded speech at the UN General Assembly, Xi Jinping of China said his country would stop financing coal-fired power plants overseas.
Evergrande turmoil forces Chinese developers to prove strength: Nikkei reports property companies to announce capital injections and bond redemptions.
What are the systemic risks of an Evergrande collapse? The debacle is a test of Xi Jinping’s commitment to reshaping the economy.
Economist
Politics trumps money in Chinese markets: Even Beijing may not know whether it will be comfortable with Big Tech in the future and in what form.
Andy Xie
Australia’s submarines make waves in Asia long before they go to sea: Some nations fear an accelerated arms buildup in a region where larger countries have already ramped up their military spending or capabilities.
NYT
EUROPE
If AUKUS, China and Russia don’t take Europe seriously, guess who’s to blame: Before you listen to Emmanuel Macron’s rants, just ask Lithuania what it thinks about his European “sovereignty.”
Andreas Kluth
Submarine crisis is way deeper than French pride: It is dangerous to write off Paris’ fury over Aukus as temporary or theatrical. This dispute will reverberate across Europe.
Lionel Laurent
German minister: Submarine dispute is 'a wake-up call': DW reports Germany's European Affairs minister said it will be difficult to rebuild trust between the EU and its allies as the US, UK, and Australia insist that long-term relations with France won't be affected.
Top EU official warns ‘something broken’ in transatlantic relations: Thierry Breton’s intervention comes as Franco-American tensions threaten broader diplomatic efforts.
FT
EU leaders accuse Biden of disloyalty to allies: Politico reports Charles Michel says Trump was ‘clear’ about disliking Europe, Ursula von der Leyen says ‘business as usual’ can’t continue.
“You don’t do that to an ally”: Longtime French ambassador to US scorches Biden: It’s not just the Australian submarine deal, says Gérard Araud. President Biden, he says, doesn’t seem to care about Europe at all.
TNR
Snookered by Anglo-Saxons: The Europeans have misread Biden and misjudged Johnson. A bad combination.
Wolfgang Münchau
Were the French blindsided by the AUKUS submarine deal?
AFP
How France was blindsided by the Australia-US sub deal
AFP
AFP: Macron and Modi vow to ‘act jointly’ in Indo-Pacific as submarine row intensifies
UK's Boris Johnson comes to America to push for climate commitments — and make nice with Biden: The prime minister headed to the White House Tuesday — by Amtrak, an emissions-conserving choice that no doubt appealed to the American president with a Delaware train station named after him.
WP
UK-US: Borris Johnson refused to commit to a US-UK trade deal by 2024, admitting that Biden had 'a lot of fish to fry.'
Bloomberg: UK weighs joining USMCA pact as Hopes for US-only deal fade
UK pins hope on joining US, Mexico, and Canada trade pact: FT reports London shifts focus to USMCA as the prospect of clinching a bilateral deal with Washington fades.
Biden sinks hopes of quick trade deal with US: Ministers look to join North American pact instead.
The Times
Jeff Bezos to Boris Johnson: It’s your job to make Amazon pay more tax
The Times
Poll: Scots not confident UK can hit net-zero climate target: Scottish voters rate their government’s own chances of reaching net-zero higher than the rest of the UK.
Politico
Scotland + COP26: Scots polled have overwhelmingly heard (77 percent) of the COP26 summit and mostly support it going ahead (53 percent to 32 percent). With big protests expected when the summit rolls into Glasgow, respondents are split on whether they should be allowed to protest around the main venues — 42 percent think they should be allowed to, 35 percent don’t.
+ 80 percent of Scots said they actively adopt behaviors to protect the environment and combat climate change.
The stain on Merkel’s legacy: The German chancellor enabled authoritarians in the EU. Will, whoever succeeds her prove different?
Daniel Hegedüs
NORTH AMERICA
Justin Trudeau keeps his job, but loses some luster: Canada’s prime minister called a pointless election.
Economist
Trudeau returns to power with minority grip on Parliament: Riding high in the polls this summer, the Liberal prime minister gambled on an election with hopes of attaining majority power.
Politico
Canadians back Justin Trudeau, with reservations: Liberals fall short of a parliamentary majority in an election where voters weren’t enamored with their options.
WSJ
Trudeau wins, but is diminished by a futile election: The prime minister struggled to find a campaign issue that could distinguish his party and expand its power in Parliament.
NYT
Guardian: Justin Trudeau secures a third victory in an election ‘nobody wanted’
Canada’s Liberal Conservatives lose: The Tories offered Trudeau Lite, but voters kept the real thing.
WSJ - Editorial
UNGA: President Biden told the UN General Assembly that the US was 'opening a new era of relentless diplomacy.'
Joe Biden calls for ‘new era of relentless diplomacy’ in UN speech: FT reports the US president’s address to General Assembly comes as relations with allies tested by Afghanistan and AUKUS.
From relentless war to relentless diplomacy, Biden declares new chapter: Nikkei reports at debut UN speech, the president makes no mention of China.
CNN: Member of CIA chief's team reported Havana syndrome symptoms on recent trip to India
US-Australia submarine deal: what are the risks?
AFP
Dems fear Biden’s domestic agenda could implode: “If any member of Congress is not concerned that this could fall apart, they need treatment,” said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO).
Politico
US careens toward shutdown, financial crisis amid stalemate in Congress: WP reports Democrats have tied an increase in the debt ceiling with a bill that funds the government into December, setting off a war with Republicans, who refuse to raise the cap out of opposition to President Biden’s agenda — even if it means grinding the country to a halt.
A US government shutdown on October 1 is a genuine threat.
54: According to a Pew poll conducted August 23-29, 54 percent of Americans surveyed said that despite vaccinations, the pandemic's worst is "yet to come." Many said that mixed messaging has made them less trusting of public health guidance.
3 in 10: According to YouGov, three in 10 Americans would not feel safe seeking hospital treatment at this time because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
After California recall, Democrats fret over Latino vote: The party still has the backing of the nation’s fastest-growing demographic group, but signs of softening support cause concern.
Gerald F. Seib
REST OF THE WORLD
UN: A new Pew Research poll finds that roughly two-thirds of people globally view the organization favorably. Only in Taiwan does a majority have a negative view.
Bloomberg: UN assembly’s opening featured a single female speaker
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Curation and commentary by Marc A. Ross | Founder @ Caracal
