Germany ain’t decoupling from China anytime soon

I penned an opinion editorial for The Hill exploring the focus of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's trip to China.

Scholz was in Beijing earlier today with a top-flight business delegation in tow, including the CEOs of Volkswagen and BASF.

Here are some highlights:

+ This week’s biggest geopolitical business event is Germany to China.

+ As the Biden administration imposes new export controls on semiconductor technology to China and Republicans suggest that, upon taking control of the House of Representatives, as expected, they plan to review everything from Chinese military threats and COVID-19 to intellectual property theft, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is visiting Beijing with a delegation of business leaders.

+ Setting expectations for the first EU leader to visit China since the start of the pandemic, Scholz’s spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said the chancellor is not in favor of “decoupling” from China. Examining the numbers, you can see why.

+ For democratic governments, nearly all foreign policy is driven by domestic policy. Germany’s export-driven economy can’t escape increased geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific, China’s stifling zero-COVID policy, and a growing weariness of an overreliance on China’s market for revenue and economic growth.

+ Politely whispered in the past, this sentiment is now driving the dialogue with leading German economic thinkers. “The German economy is much more dependent on China than the other way round,” according to Juergen Matthes of the German Economic Institute.

+ A good rule of thumb for governing in a democracy is that good economics makes bad politics. Scholz appears committed to the economics, regardless of the politics.

+ His Germany-to-China moment has four goals: shoring up the German-Chinese commercial relationship; pressuring ministries to overlook Chinese investment in Germany; keeping the big multinational German companies happy at the expense of small and medium-sized enterprises; and reminding the U.S. elected officials that nations will do what is best for their economic security.

Access the full opinion editorial here.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

The geopolitics of TikTok

Estimates suggest that TikTok has about 80 million monthly active users (MAUs) in the United States.

Of these users, 60% are female, and 40% are male. 60%, or 48 million MAUs, are between the ages of 16-24. 26%, or 21 million MAUs, are between the ages of 25-44.

TikTok skews young and is used by those who are actually young and those who aspire to be young.

Oh, did you know TikTok is a Chinese internet company ByteDance?

Washington is keen to have more say and oversight over how this platform engages Americans.

In 2020, Team Trump took the dynamic step of ordering the app banished from the country within 45 days.

Of course, being an undisciplined political operation, Trump changed his mind. Instead of a ban, he thought it best that the company rather get sold to a US buyer — provided, according to the Washington Post, that the United States got rewarded for its efforts by pocketing a "very large" cut of the sale's proceeds.

The leaders of TikTok prepared themselves to sell the technology to some blue-chip American company.

To which officials of the Chinese Communist Party moved to squash any takeover. Beijing listed the algorithms that drive TikTok to China's list of banned exports and warned ByteDance executives to "strongly and carefully" reconsider any sale.

Washington Post reports that the fight over TikTok has become one of the biggest standoffs of the modern internet: two global superpowers deadlocked over a multibillion-dollar powerhouse that could define culture and entertainment for a generation.

For Team Biden, TikTok has become a big test of how to regulate popular technology while navigating the contours of the US-China commercial relationship.

So wild are the extremes in Washington DC on how to deal with TikTok; on the same day back in September, Biden appeared in a TikTok video while TikTok CEO Vanessa Pappas appeared before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee testifying on data security.

TikTok is not really social media.

TikTok is handheld television on a sugar rush with access to global content creatives streaming hyper-personalized channels.

So hyper-personalized is TikTok, it doesn't care about your lame friends and wacky aunts for content. TikTok has executed an artificial intelligence (AI)-based recommendation engine that satisfies your desires and peccadilloes with snappy videos.

TikTok knows snappy videos are easier to create than pen a witty Tweet or drop a 1,000-word LinkedIn thought leadership piece. TikTok recognizes that more people naturally can put out a decent TikTok video, copy a dance, or follow a meme, than, say, can write anything educational or entertaining.

"Text just isn't as good at capturing this medium. Then, there's a problem of information density, which is I think why text loses in comparison. People are always looking for more information that's faster and easier to digest. And video just encodes so much more information than text. The medium is so dense, and, ultimately, that's more effective at communicating information." -- Kevin Munger is an Assistant Professor of Political Science and Social Data Analytics at Penn State University

If TikTok is actually television, it seems regulation would be allowed, and frankly, it needs to happen.

The Communications Act of 1934 will need an update, but the foundation is there. As outlined in the act, the Federal Communications Commission is empowered to regulate interstate and international communications through cable, radio, television, satellite, and wire.

Also, nations frequently regulate television and communications. From Canada's Canadian cultural content requirement to China's censorship policy denying access to Facebook, YouTube, Google, Netflix, Zoom, Bloomberg, and The Economist, to name a few.

By the way, TikTok is currently negotiating with CFIUS, the black box interagency committee responsible for conducting national security reviews of foreign companies' deals. Axios reports the negotiations are focused on whether TikTok can be divested by Chinese parent company ByteDance to an American company and remain operational in the United States.

All of which maybe be a moot point, as after using TikTok to engage voters and drive GOTV efforts, a new Republican-controlled Congress could try to scrap any deal viewed as too easy on China.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

Speaker | Geopolitical Business Intelligence

Globalization has significantly changed the nature of American politics forging a new generational paradigm. 

How America proceeds in this new environment is unknown. 

With an endless news cycle, a continuous flow of global trade, protectionist laws, and committed geopolitical powers, American politics is being shaped from many directions and far beyond America's shores. 

Decisions made in Beijing now influence actions in Brussels, which then compel policy in Washington, DC.

I can speak with authority on this subject.

I am the founder of Caracal, a geopolitical business intelligence firm, former communications director for the US-China Business Council, and past adjunct professor at the George Washington University teaching a course on globalization and American politics. You can find my bio here: https://www.caracal.global/founder-team

I am available for 45-minute, 90-minute, and 180-minute sessions - be it lectures or workshops, in person or by video conference.

Specifically, I can discuss the following with accessible language and good cheer:

+ US-China commercial relations

+ How to a geopolitical executive

+ Globalization and American politics

Happy to chat and discuss a session that matches your business and political objectives.

Thanks.

-Marc