Sound More Interesting at Cocktails Memo | January 13

25 talking points for better conversation at cocktails from news of the past week.

1. Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte to travel to US next week to discuss Washington pressure on Netherlands to adopt China tech export ban.

2. A Chinese state-owned bank is offering people who deposit about $512,000 Western-made mRNA vaccine shots in a bid to lure wealthy clients.

3. The State Department will start spelling Turkey as "Türkiye" in diplomatic and formal settings.

4. German MPs in Taiwan: A high-ranking parliamentary delegation from Germany landed in Taiwan for a four-day visit this past Monday.

5. Kyiv intelligence reports Moscow to mobilize 500,000 new conscripts.

6. JBAT | Counties to watch in 2023:

🇯🇵 Japan

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇦🇺 Australia

🇹🇷 Türkiye

7. Emmanuel Macron has invited Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to France on March 10 to hold a bilateral summit.

8. King Charles will travel to France on March 27, his first state visit since becoming monarch.

9. 280,000 Italian-born people were living in the UK in 2021, according to the Office for National Statistics.

10. Nancy Pelosi raised more than $1 billion for Democrats during her 20 years in leadership, according to her team.

11. US party preferences: Largest percentage of Americans identify as independent, per Gallup.

12. Donald Trump plans to hold his first presidential campaign event of the year in South Carolina later this month.

13. TikTok bans: At least 19 state governors, dozens of universities, and the federal government have banned the Chinese-owned app from being used on their devices and networks.

14. There were 300 auto-related exhibitors at CES this year.

15. Tesla is close to sealing a preliminary deal to set up a factory in Indonesia.

16. Southwest Airlines estimates the cost of its Christmas holiday mess will cost its bottom line between $725 million and $825 million.

17. More than half of German companies report labor shortages.

18. In 1975, the average grocery store stocked 65 kinds of fruits and veggies. By 1998, that number had reached 345.

19. Noma, often called the world's best restaurant, will close at the end of 2024.

20. De La Soul albums will finally be available on streaming services for the first time on March 3.

21. Veteran surfer Marcio Freire died at the Portuguese big-wave break Nazaré.

22. The NFL booked a record $2.7 billion in sponsorship revenue in the 2022-23 season, led by deals in alcohol and tech, according to SponsorUnited.

23. F1 races averaged about 1.5 million viewers per race in 2022, roughly the same as a regular-season National Basketball Association game.

24. Only five women have competed in Formula One. The last one to start in an F1 race was Lella Lombardi in 1976.

25. Americans love football: US investors now control 62 professional European soccer clubs.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

ITK Daily is geopolitical business intelligence for senior executives with global ambition.

ITK Daily curates news @ the intersection of globalization, disruption, politics, culture, + sport and provides actionable insights and sharp commentary.

The situation determines the tactic.

A proper tactic is not only about what job needs to be done; it is also about comprehending the environment of the situation.

David Snowden and Mary Boone formulated a useful framework that takes into account the environment of the situation and sorts out which tactic will be best for the job.

On the framework, Harvard Business Review writes: "Many executives are surprised when previously successful leadership approaches fail in new situations, but different contexts call for different kinds of responses. Before addressing a situation, leaders need to recognize which context governs it—and tailor their actions accordingly."

Snowden and Boone called their tool the Cynefin framework.

Cynefin, pronounced ku-nev-in, is a Welsh word that signifies there are multiple factors in our environment and from our experiences that influence us in ways that we can never fully recognize or understand.

Snowden explains the literal translation of cynefin means “habitat or place, but what it actually means is the place of your multiple belongings.” 

By this, Snowden means our perspectives and responses to a situation result from multiple factors, including our multiple experiences, memberships, associations, and surroundings.  This mashed-up cocktail influences us in ways we don’t fully recognize or understand.

Unlike other models, the Cynefin framework is a sense-making model and not a categorization model.

A categorization model is the classic 2x2 matrix where the framework precedes the data.

A sense-making model is where the data precedes the framework. 

You can watch him discuss the concept of the framework here.

The Cynefin framework allows you to sort a situation into one of five environments:

Simple.

Complicated.

Complex.

Chaotic.

Disorder.

So depending on what situation you are in, you should respond differently and with a tactic that is proper and proportional to the situation.

Each situation requires a different tactic.

Of the five situations, the first four are the clearest and most obvious. 

Still, for the globally ambitious executives reading this, you will most often find yourself in a disorder situation.

The first problem you will face in responding to a disorder situation will occur without you even knowing it.

Your top-of-mind response will be based on your personal preferences and previously most successful tactic shaped by your multiple experiences, memberships, associations, and surroundings.

Your top-of-mind response will be based on accessing the situation based on your preferred tactic.

The danger you will face is your favorite tactic which worked swimmingly in the past for a clear and obvious situation, won’t work now because there is a new reality. A new situation. A new disorder.

The Cynefin framework allows you to recognize that your actions must match the reality you find yourself in through a sense-making process.

If you need help determining the proper tactic for your situation, Caracal is here to help.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

ITK Daily is geopolitical business intelligence for senior executives with global ambition.

ITK Daily curates news @ the intersection of globalization, disruption, politics, culture, + sport and provides actionable insights and sharp commentary.

Wednesday Office Hours by Caracal

20-minute conversations.

Actionable insights on:

+ Geopolitical intelligence

+ Strategic planning

+ Economic diplomacy

+ Communications

Every Wednesday, unless there is good surf or snow.

11:00 am - 1:00 pm ET.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry.

Caracal is here to help.

ITK Daily is geopolitical business intelligence for senior executives with global ambition.

ITK Daily curates news @ the intersection of globalization, disruption, politics, culture, + sport and provides actionable insights and sharp commentary.