Cause > Campaign

A cause beats a campaign every time.

When running for high office, keep policy solutions simple.

1 is best.

Hope.

3 is good.

Compassionate conservatism.

No child left behind.

Tax breaks for all.

5 is the most.

In Manchester recently, Labour’s Keir Starmer outlined the beginning of five “national missions” that will drive his 2024 election manifesto.

When Mitt Romney ran for president, he had a 59-point plan to save America.

"Channeling the management consultant he used to be, Romney presented the outlines of a 59-point plan, published in a 160-page book. His aides boasted that it is the most specific proposal any presidential candidate has offered."

You can read the full 2011 Washington Post article on Romney's plan roll-out here.

So successful was Romney's 59-point plan with American voters that it landed him not in the White House but in the US Senate.

Good data alert | Fog of war: How the Ukraine conflict transformed the cyber threat landscape

Nearly one year ago, Russia launched an attempted full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

From the start of this full-scale invasion, offensive and defensive cyber operations have played a prominent role in the conflict.

To provide more insights into the role of cyber, Google has released a report entitled: Fog of war: How the Ukraine conflict transformed the cyber threat landscape.

The report is based on analysis from Google’s Threat Analysis Group (TAG), Mandiant, now part of Google Cloud, and Google Trust & Safety.

You can access the report here.

Insights I found compelling:

+ Google has donated 50,000 Google Workspace licenses for the Ukrainian government, a rapid Air Raid Alerts system for Android phones in Ukraine, support for refugees, businesses, and entrepreneurs, and measures to pause monetization indefinitely and significantly limit recommendations globally for several Russian state news media across our platforms.

+ The Ukrainian government is under near-constant digital attack.

+ The level of collective defense  between governments, companies, and security stakeholders worldwide  is unprecedented.

+ This report outlines three significant observations: (1) Russian government-backed attackers have engaged in an aggressive, multi-pronged effort to gain a decisive wartime advantage in cyberspace, often with mixed results; (2) Moscow has leveraged the full spectrum of information

operations — from overt state-backed media to covert platforms and accounts — to shape public perception of the war, and (3) The invasion has triggered a notable shift in the Eastern European cybercriminal ecosystem that will likely have long-term implications for both coordination between criminal groups and the scale of cybercrime worldwide.

+ Together, these observations point to several broader assessments for the security community from now on: (1) Russian government-backed attackers will continue to conduct cyber attacks against Ukraine and NATO partners to further Russian strategic objectives; (2) Moscow will increase disruptive and destructive attacks in response to developments on the battlefield that fundamentally shift the balance — real or perceived — towards Ukraine; and (3) Russia will continue

to increase the pace and scope of information operations to achieve the objectives described above, particularly as we approach critical moments like international funding, military aid, domestic referendums, and more.

+ It is clear that cyber will now play an integral role in future armed conflict, supplementing traditional forms of warfare.

+ Since the war began, Google has seen an over 300% increase in Russian phishing campaigns directed against users in NATO countries in 2022 (compared to a 2020 baseline).

+ The GRU’s most versatile operators do it all: From intelligence collection, destructive network attacks, and contributing to information operations.

+ The war caused Chinese government-backed attackers to shift their focus towards Ukrainian and Western European targets to gather information on the conflict.

+ Google has seen a resurgence of hacktivism and Russian intelligence connection to hacktivists.

+ Information operations (IO) targeting domestic Russian audiences have seen a spike in shoring up support in Russia for the war and praising Wagner Group.

+ During the war, Google has observed a pattern of concurrent disruptive attacks, espionage, and IO — likely the first instance of all three being conducted simultaneously by state actors in a conventional war.

+ The cybercriminal ecosystem has been disrupted, with some groups declaring political allegiances, others splitting into geopolitical lines, and prominent operators shutting down.

If you need help overcoming the fog of war with actionable geopolitical intelligence, Caracal is here to help.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

ITK Daily is geopolitical business intelligence for senior executives with global ambition.

ITK Daily curates news @ the intersection of globalization, disruption, politics, culture, + sport and provides actionable insights and sharp commentary.

Google has too many peacetime generals

I am all-in on Google.

From using a Chromebook exclusively to hosting chats on Google Meet.

I even use YouTube Music.

I know, wild.

You see, I am rooting for Google.

Even though they rejected me.

I interviewed there once back in the day.

Somehow I got through the HR algorithm and was picked for an opening phone interview.

I was thrilled, prepped, and ready.

And just like that, with one 20-minute call, my move from Google user to Google employee was over.

A Googler told me I was lucky to have just gotten a phone interview.

He wasn't totally wrong.

Word on the street is that Google receives two million applications yearly.

Whole keynotes have been hatched by telling audiences that it is ten times harder to get a job at Google than it is to get into Harvard.

After reading an insightful post from Praveen Seshadri on what is happening in Google today, I understand why I wasn't made a Googler.

Google looks for peacetime generals.

But when a company has too many peacetime generals, well, the company becomes too peaceful.

When a company becomes too peaceful, everyone works only for their colleagues and what managers think of their work.

Not what the outside, messy, complex, and warring consumers think of your work.

I am no peacetime general.

Seshadri's post is worth a read. You can access it here.

Here are insights I found compelling:

+ Google has 175,000+ capable and well-compensated employees who get very little done quarter over quarter, year over year. Like mice, they are trapped in a maze of approvals, launch processes, legal reviews, performance reviews, exec reviews, documents, meetings, bug reports, triage, OKRs, H1 plans followed by H2 plans, all-hands summits, and inevitable reorgs.

+ Google has four core cultural problems: (1) no mission, (2) no urgency, (3) delusions of exceptionalism, (4) mismanagement.

+ Does anyone at Google come into work actually thinking about “organizing the world’s information”? They have lost track of who they serve and why.

+ Overall, it is a soft peacetime culture where nothing is worth fighting for.

+ Within Google, there is a collective delusion that the company is exceptional.

+ Google can no longer seek success by avoiding risk. The path forward has to start with culture change, and that has to start at the very top.

+ Google’s executives should look at what Satya Nadella did at Microsoft: (1) lead with a commitment to a mission, (2) set aside the peacetime generals who underpromise and underdeliver, (3) winnow the layers of middle management that have accumulated over time, many promoted gradually beyond their capability, and now incapable of change.

I am still rooting for Google.

I trust they can bring on some wartime generals.

If you feel it's too peaceful at your company, Caracal is here to help.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

ITK Daily is geopolitical business intelligence for senior executives with global ambition.

ITK Daily curates news @ the intersection of globalization, disruption, politics, culture, + sport and provides actionable insights and sharp commentary.