Sound More Interesting at Cocktails Memo | September 1, 2023

25 talking points for better conversation at cocktails from news of the past week.

1. Xi Jinping plans to skip the G20 summit while China-India tensions mount.

2. Joe Biden to visit Vietnam after G20 summit in India.

3. Another coup in Africa: Since 1990, two-thirds of coups in Africa have been in ex-French colonies.

4. Japan seeks a record ¥7.7 trillion defense budget.

5. The US Space Force plans to expand its footprint in the Indo-Pacific region with a new subordinate command in Japan.

6. Grant Shapps has been appointed UK Defence Secretary. For Shapps — this is his fifth Cabinet post in just one year.

7. Sean Penn captures the first Russian bombs dropped on Ukraine in new documentary 'Superpower.'

8. UAE launches an Arabic large language model in the Gulf push into generative AI.

9. Election 2024: Francis Suarez is the first GOP candidate to suspend his campaign.

10. Foxconn's Terry Gou announces bid for Taiwan's presidency.

11. Joe Biden to visit Vietnam after G20 summit in India.

12. A worldwide lithium shortage could come as soon as 2025.

13. Toyota to build over 10m vehicles for the first time this year.

14. X will again allow political advertising after it was suspended in 2019.

15. 18%: The market vacancy percentage of US class A office space.

16. Revino is launching a new system to reuse wine bottles.

17. Barstool Sports reportedly lays off nearly 25% of staff.

18. Apple's iPhone 15 event will be held on September 12.

19. Gazprom sends the first-ever shipment of Baltic LNG to China via the Arctic.

20. Karlie Kloss wants to buy i-D magazine from Vice Media.

21. Happening now: The Venice International Film Festival.

22. Simone Biles won a record eighth US all-around title and became the oldest gymnast to win the championship.

23. Canada's men's national team head coach John Herdman steps down to take the Toronto FC job.

24. Megan Rapinoe to play her final game for USA on September 24.

25. Lewis Hamilton is extending a deal with Mercedes F1 until 2025.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

Don't create unnecessary buzz

The 1979 poster by the UK Conservative Party declaring "Labour isn't working" is an all-time game-changing political campaign message.

The posters went up based on the expectation that Labour PM James Callaghan would call a general election.

The poster caused a commotion.

The UK Labour Party cried foul, moaning that Conservative Party members in the photo had never stood in a dole queue and that the poster was a "fake."

A Labour Party MP even spoke to the House of Commons and denounced the poster as "soap-powder advertising."

The Labour Party properly stepped in it.

All the attention only did one thing: it made a simple poster newsworthy.

News that demanded the poster be covered.

News that allowed the poster to enjoy maximum earned media.

The "Labour isn't working" poster appeared on the front page of newspapers and television news bulletins across the UK.

The more Labour cried foul and complained, the more news coverage it received.

With all the commotion, Callaghan delayed calling the election, and Britain entered a period called "the winter of discontent."

This general election delay only compounded the buzz and made the poster seem even more relevant.

When the call for a general election came in May 1979, the Conservative Party resurrected the poster and added one extra word to read "Labour Still Isn't Working."

The poster played a significant part in the election of Margaret Thatcher's Conservative government, as well as an increased use of negative advertising, forever changing the nature of British political campaigning.

If you need help knowing when to not to step in it and create a media buzz advantage for your opponents, Caracal is here to help.

Caracal believes successful geopolitical business communications requires intelligence, strategy, and engagement.

Caracal is here to help you succeed in today's interconnected geopolitical and earned media environment.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

How to not make a prediction

One of the tents of successful geopolitical business communications is intelligence.

Or, if you want a more specific definition, let's use the Bayes' rule.

Named after Thomas Bayes, the rule describes the probability of an event based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event.

This means the best way to make a good prediction is to be accurately informed about what you're predicting.

As explained in the book Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions, applying the Bayes rule means you have the intelligence to grasp the world in proper proportions.

The book explains: "When something surprises us, it ought to surprise us, and when it doesn't, it ought not to."

However, when language is added, this rule starts to break down.

What we talk about typically differs from what we experience.

We talk about what we think a listener will find most interesting, compelling, and entertaining.

We talk about rare things.

The book states: "There's a curious tension, then, between communicating with others and maintaining accurate priors about the world. When people talk about what interests them - and offer stories they think their listeners will find interesting - it skews the statistics of our experience."

This need to communicate on topics we hope the listener finds most interesting, compelling, and entertaining makes it challenging to maintain appropriate prior distributions.

This challenge has only increased with the rise of the printing press, cable news, and social media.

Simply put, media coverage of events, news, and innovations does not track their occurrence in the wild.

Barry Glassner, a professor of sociology at Washington University in St. Louis and author of The Culture of Fear, notes that the murder rate in the United States has declined by over 20% since the 1990s, while the coverage of gun violence on American news has increased 600%.

So, if you need solid intelligence to execute world-class geopolitical business communications, you must follow the Bayes' rule and protect your priors.

Make a solid geopolitical prediction by protecting your priors.

Or secure an outside expert to identify what matters and what should be in a weekly zeitgeist memo.

If you need help identifying essential news or crafting a zeitgeist memo to protect your priors, Caracal is here to help.

Caracal believes successful geopolitical business communications requires intelligence.

Caracal is here to help you succeed in today's interconnected geopolitical and Bayesian environment.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc