The rise of Arctic competition: Why business leaders should pay attention

The Danish government's recent $2 billion Arctic security investment marks a pivotal moment in global strategic positioning that every multinational CEO should be monitoring.

This investment isn't just about military modernization - it's a signal of fundamental shifts in global trade routes, resource access, and international relations that will impact business operations for decades.

Why does this matter to business leaders?

The Arctic represents the intersection of several critical business factors: new shipping routes, untapped natural resources, and emerging geopolitical tensions. Denmark's move from using sled dog patrols to investing in advanced ships, drones, and satellites reflects this region's rapidly evolving strategic importance.

Three key implications for global business:

First, shipping and logistics leaders need to closely monitor the development of Arctic routes. As the ice melts and new pathways open, companies could save significant time and cost on Asia-Europe shipping. However, the militarization of the region could complicate access and increase operational risks.

Second, the intensifying competition between great powers in the Arctic will affect resource extraction and development rights. The region holds an estimated 30% of the world's undiscovered natural gas and 13% of undiscovered oil. Companies in energy, mining, and related industries must factor this new security environment into their long-term strategic planning.

Third, this military buildup signals potential regulatory and compliance challenges. As Arctic nations enhance their presence and oversight capabilities, companies operating in or through the region will likely face increased scrutiny and new regulatory frameworks.

Denmark's investment isn't happening in isolation. It comes amid renewed US strategic interest in Greenland and a broader NATO focus on Arctic security.

For business leaders, the Arctic is transitioning from a peripheral concern to a central theater of global competition.

The global business takeaway: We're entering an era where Arctic strategy needs to be part of every multinational's risk assessment and opportunity analysis.

It's becoming clear that the Arctic is no longer just a remote frontier—it's emerging as a critical nexus of global trade, resource competition, and strategic positioning. As business leaders, you must consider how these developments will affect our operations, supply chains, and market access in the coming years.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

Sound More Interesting at Cocktails Memo | January 24

Here are 25 talking points for better conversation at cocktails from news of the past week.

1. Only 16 Districts: Of the 435 US House races conducted in 2024, only 16 district electorates voted for a different party's nominee for Representative than they did for President—meaning 96.3% of the US House district electorates voted for a straight party ticket for President and the US House.

2. MI-GOV: Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) announced a run for Michigan governor.

3. SC-GOV: Rep. Nancy Mace (R)says she is considering a run for governor of South Carolina.

4. Egg prices rise nearly 37 percent: In some states, eggs cost as much as $9 per dozen.

5. Donald Trump is the first president in more than 100 years to call for new American territory—including Mars.

6. An Oxfam report claims Colonial Britain drained India of $64.82 trillion.

7. Sweden has sent 550 troops to Latvia, its first major deployment since joining NATO in March, which ended its decades-long neutrality.

8. Turkey is home to more than 3 million Syrian refugees.

9. Wildfires in Brazil last year burned an area larger than Italy, monitor MapBiomas has said. Some 120,000 square miles burned in 2024, up 79% from the previous year.

10. Trade power: Less than 3% of the world's electricity is internationally traded.

11. AI job loss? Last year, the IMF reported that up to 40% of jobs globally would be impacted by or lost to AI.

12. AI data centers need lots of space: About 875 acres in Abilene, Texas, or roughly the size of New York's Central Park, have been set aside to construct data centers dedicated to AI.

13. AI is power-hungry: Legislators in at least eight states have filed or plan to file bills establishing eco-conscious guardrails for the AI industry. According to the US Department of Energy, the AI industry will consume up to 12% of US electricity by 2028.

14. South Carolina will reboot its giant nuclear project to meet the demand for AI.

15. Google is backing artificial intelligence developer Anthropic with a further $1 billion.

16. MrBeast has joined a new bid to buy TikTok.

17. The SEC announced "SEC Crypto 2.0," a task force "dedicated to developing a comprehensive and clear regulatory framework for crypto assets."

18. Citigroup plans a £1 billion upgrade to its London HQ to tempt staff back to the office.

19. 25%: The share of the global population living in cities of over a million people, up from 15% six decades ago.

20. Detroit property values have increased for the 9th year.

21. Netflix surges past 300 million subscribers.

22. According to a paper published in the British Journal of Psychiatry, people with ADHD live shorter lives. Researchers studied the health records of more than 300,000 people in Britain and found that the average life expectancy was 6.8 years shorter for men with neurological conditions and 8.6 years for women.

23. Conan O'Brien will receive the 2025 Mark Twain Prize for American Humor.

24. 'Emilia Pérez' garners 13 nominations to lead the Oscars race, followed by 'The Brutalist' and 'Wicked,' each earning 10 nominations.

25. The Paris Olympics medals designed by LVMH are tarnishing.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

Good Data Here | The 2025 Trust Barometer

One of my favorite documents for understanding the state of the world and its future is the Edelman Trust Barometer, now in its 25th edition. The survey aims to understand why people hold the views they do and how personal attitudes interact to shape broader societal forces affecting commerce and culture.

Edelman reports: "The 2025 Trust Barometer has revealed a profound shift to acceptance of aggressive action, with political polarization and deepening fears giving rise to a widespread sense of grievance."

Here are the seven most significant insights from the 2025 Edelman Trust Barometer report:

Trust crisis with governments + electoral impact: Government trust levels remained largely stagnant globally, with only two countries showing significant trust improvements—Argentina and South Africa. Only five countries scored in the 70s—China, Indonesia, India, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia—with the United States and the United Kingdom mired in the 40s at 47 and 43 percent, respectively. Globally, the trust index remains at 56%—the same as in 2024—indicating elections are failing to restore institutional confidence.

Economic insecurity: Job security fears have intensified globally, with significant increases in concerns about globalization (+5-6%), financial pressures (+3%), and technology disruption (+2-5%). Over 60% of employees worry about international trade conflicts and recession impacts. Survey respondents indicated they are also more suspicious of the rise and use of artificial intelligence (AI). This calls for more action from businesses, such as implementing workforce reskilling and retraining necessary to keep people employable whose jobs are being eliminated or significantly altered by automation and AI.

Leadership credibility collapse: Trust in leaders has hit historic lows. 69% believe government leaders purposely mislead people (up 11 percentage points since 2021), alongside similar distrust of business leaders (68%) and journalists (70%). This represents an all-time high in leadership skepticism. Bottom line: If you're a leader, you ain't trusted.

Wealth + Trust inequality: A 13-point trust gap exists between the high-income (61%) and low-income (48%) populations. 67% believe wealthy individuals don't pay fair taxes, while 65% view wealthy people's selfishness as a source of societal problems. Bottom line: If you're wealthy, you ain't trusted.

Rising social volatility: Forty percent of survey respondents now view hostile activism as legitimate for driving change, and this sentiment reaches 53% among young adults (18-34). This indicates a growing willingness to embrace confrontational approaches to achieving social change. See the "Just Stop Oil" protestors.

Business leadership opportunity: The good news is that those reading this memo can make a difference. Businesses remain the most trusted institution (62%) and are uniquely positioned as competent and ethical. However, this trust advantage comes with expectations—majorities expect businesses to address affordability, climate change, and workforce training.

Grievance crisis: 61% of people globally hold moderate to high grievances against institutions and elites. This mindset correlates strongly with decreased trust in all institutions and increased zero-sum thinking about social progress. This high level of grievance represents a fundamental challenge to social cohesion.

These findings suggest a volatile social environment where traditional institutions struggle to maintain legitimacy and face increased demands for tangible economic security and social equity progress.

As I have said for years, business leaders have a unique opportunity and obligation to help address these challenges, given their relatively stronger trust position.

Business leaders are uniquely qualified to address the challenges facing us. With the wherewithal, access to funds, and global reach, they should embrace 2025 as the year to make a difference—be a force for good.

How CEOs navigate the waters of globalization and geopolitics will shape commerce and culture for the foreseeable future.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal