Marc A. Ross on The Curiosity Dividend

I had a wonderful conversation with Carlo Navato on his podcast, The Curiosity Dividend.

Carlo is an old friend, and we shared some adventures in the UK's Lake District in 2024. Plus, we have an equal passion for the Detroit Lions as well as creative pursuits in photography and writing

Carlo is the visionary founder of Haxted Estates, a multi-award-winning property developer who believes his success has come from being passionately curious.

Carlo believes he has no special talents except his ever-curious mindset. For him, curiosity leads to inspiration, which leads to creativity and empowers you to do cool stuff.

A chartered surveyor by training, he is happiest with mavericks in wild places. He is a passionate photographer and lover of books, vinyl, his VW camper van, sports, and wine. He is a founding partner of the Do Lectures.

You can follow Carlo on Instagram or LinkedIn.

Here are the top ten insights from our converation on geopolitics, corporate diplomacy, and the shattering of the old world order in these chaotic times:

1. The Trump administration has implemented unprecedented global tariffs that I described as "tariffing the entire planet." Trump's economic decision has caused significant market turmoil and is restructuring global supply chains, with even allied nations seeking accommodations.

2. I characterized Trump as a "day trader" without a long-term strategy: "Trump has no 100-year plan. He has no 10-year plan. He has no 10-hour plan." This short-term approach creates unpredictability in international relations and markets.

3. America's post-WWII economic prosperity created a "false sense of hope" because there was no competition from war-ravaged nations. As countries like Japan, Germany, England, and China recovered and entered global markets, America's economic position naturally shifted.

4. America's national debt, which stands at approximately $30 trillion against a $25 trillion economy, may drive tariff policies as a revenue-generating mechanism rather than just a form of protectionism.

5. I suggested America isn't "globalized enough" and should focus on selling more internationally rather than erecting trade barriers: "Instead of being so fearful of the world, let's get in it. We have the best companies in the world."

6. The Detroit Lions' turnaround under Dan Campbell exemplifies effective leadership by embracing a local identity rather than importing external models. The team hired leadership independently (rather than friends hiring friends) and focused on Detroit's blue-collar, gritty characteristics.

7. I identified several world leaders he considers noteworthy: Italy's Giorgia Meloni for embracing Italian "specialness," France's Emmanuel Macron for starting his political party, and Argentina's Javier Milei for attempting to revitalize a potentially powerful economy.

8. I predicted the political consequences of the tariff policies: "I think these tariffs stay on for a while. I think we go into a recession. I think the Democrats take back the House, and it's a whole new ballgame."

9. On managing information overload, I emphasized distinguishing between signal and noise: "I really focus on the signal, like, what are the four or five data points that really, really matter?" This focus and decision-making enable me to maintain my focus amid the constant news cycles.

10. In the podcast, I revealed my creative interests beyond geopolitics, including photography and writing. I highlighted how diverse skill sets and experiences (what I call a "talent stack") can converge later in life to help you reach your maximum potential.

Enjoy the ride + Plan accordingly.

-Marc

Team Trump’s self-inflicted trade war disaster

In the highly complex and interwoven arena of international commerce, Team Trump has somehow managed to declare victory after setting the economic house on fire. The White House recently announced tariff rollbacks with great fanfare, hailing their negotiating prowess after plunging global markets into chaos.

This represents a bewildering pattern we’ve witnessed repeatedly: create an unnecessary crisis, partially resolve the problem you manufactured, then claim heroic achievement. It’s akin to a firefighter seeking praise for extinguishing a fire they deliberately set.

Team Trump's reckless trade strategy has caused real economic damage. Global supply chains—complex networks built over decades—are now disrupted. American companies find themselves paralyzed with uncertainty. International markets have experienced significant downturns. Our closest allies feel betrayed. Retaliatory tariffs against American goods continue to harm US exporters.

Despite pulling back from some of their most extreme positions, Team Trump celebrates as though they have engineered a masterful victory. This selective perception ignores the lasting harm inflicted on American businesses, consumers, and our global standing.

Consider the United States’ current position: America now maintains a staggering 24 percent average tariff rate, higher than any other nation on Earth. As former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers Jason Furman points out, we’ve surpassed even nations like Iran and Venezuela, which maintain rates of 12 and 14 percent, respectively. No country with a population above one million and per capita income even a quarter as high as America’s imposes average tariff rates above 10 percent.

The economic consequences reach everyday Americans in ways many fail to recognize. Brett Schulman, CEO of Cava, the Mediterranean restaurant chain, faces rising costs across his entire operation. Pulp-based paper bowls from Canada, olive oil, and Kalamata olives from Greece are now subject to tariffs. Even construction costs for new locations will likely increase. Schulman aptly describes it in the Wall Street Journal: “It’s like going to a restaurant where the menu keeps changing before you order. No one feels confident making a decision.”

This uncertainty reverberates throughout our economy.

When import taxes hit essential products, businesses must either absorb those costs—reducing profits and limiting growth—or pass them on to consumers. Your Mediterranean lunch bowl grows more expensive not because of market forces but because of deliberately imposed government policies.

Financial Times columnist Gideon Rachman describes the administration’s “mob boss” tactics toward global markets. Trump's White House goons initiated trade conflicts with virtually every major trading partner simultaneously while taking “an axe to the supply chains of many of the world’s leading multinationals.” No coherent strategy guides these actions—neither foreign policy realism nor trade mercantilism can explain such self-defeating behavior.

Perhaps most shocking, these economically destructive policies won’t achieve their stated goals. Trade deficits—Team Trump’s supposed concern—will remain essentially unchanged. Instead, the leadership of the United States made the entire global economy poorer, including ourselves.

The celebration over partial tariff rollbacks exemplifies a disturbing pattern from Team Trumo: create chaos, allow substantial damage, partially reverse course, and then declare victory. This approach only succeeds politically when constituents fail to connect deteriorating economic conditions with the policies causing them.

Americans deserve trade policies crafted with strategic foresight, economic literacy, and diplomatic skill—not impulsive decisions that harm our prosperity and standing in the world. Our current approach resembles a child knocking over a Monopoly board, slamming his feet, scattering a few pieces back onto it, then claiming championship status. The economic security of millions demands better than theatrical negotiations that leave us all worse off.

Enjoy the ride + Plan accordingly.

-Marc

Trump's trade war: Creating chaos + Claiming victory

In a bewildering display of global economic management, Team Trump has once again employed its signature strategy: create a crisis, partially resolve it, and then declare an unprecedented victory.

The recent trade chaos, which Team Trump will undoubtedly declare "The Art of the Deal," reveals an unprecedented pattern of governance emanating from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue through manufactured chaos.

After threatening massive tariffs that sent global markets into a nosedive, Team Trump has now pulled back on some measures while maintaining others—then declared this retreat a masterful negotiation.

The reality is far more concerning.

The economic costs of this approach have been substantial. The administration triggered a cascade of market disruptions by abruptly announcing sweeping tariffs against virtually all major trading partners simultaneously. American companies found themselves scrambling to adjust supply chains built over decades. Construction projects faced sudden cost increases. Restaurants like Cava began calculating how tariffs on everything from Canadian paper bowls to Greek olive oil would affect their bottom line.

"It's like going to a restaurant where the menu keeps changing before you order," Brett Schulman, Cava's CEO, was quoted in the Wall Street Journal. "No one feels confident making a decision."

This uncertainty is what businesses fear most—it paralyzes investment, delays expansion, and ultimately costs jobs.

Even with the partial pullback, the United States has positioned itself as an outlier in global trade policy. As economist Jason Furman points out, "We are now at a 24 percent average tariff rate, making the US the highest tariff country in the world—leapfrogging pikers such as Iran and Venezuela with average rates of 12 and 14 percent, respectively."

Heaby-handed tariffs like this are unprecedented territory for an advanced economy. No other nation with our level of prosperity maintains such protectionist barriers.

Team Trump's approach defies conventional economic wisdom across the political spectrum. No coherent school of thought—whether from conservative free-market proponents or progressive economists—supports simultaneously antagonizing every major trading partner.

As Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times aptly described, the White House has "taken an axe to the supply chains of many of the world's leading multinationals."

What's particularly troubling about this approach is that it likely won't achieve its stated goals. Trade deficits—Trump's obsession—typically reflect macroeconomic factors like savings and investment rates rather than trade barriers. The most probable outcome is not a manufacturing renaissance but higher prices for American consumers and businesses.

Consider your Mediterranean lunch bowl at Cava. When import taxes hit olive oil, feta, and tahini, restaurants must pass those costs to customers. Team Trump touts these tariffs as "protecting American jobs," but the reality is more expensive meals, furniture, and appliances.

Our allies, meanwhile, watch with growing concern. Nations that have been steadfast partners now face unexpected economic aggression from their most important ally. Many have already announced retaliatory measures, creating a spiraling cycle of protectionism that historical evidence suggests will leave everyone worse off.

The trade conflicts also distract from opportunities for genuine economic cooperation on issues like intellectual property protection, market access, and technology transfers—areas where targeted, multilateral approaches might yield real benefits.

What makes this approach particularly dangerous is its unpredictability. Markets function best with clear rules and expectations. When policy becomes erratic—shifting dramatically based on presidential whims rather than careful analysis—the economic consequences extend beyond immediate price changes to long-term investment decisions and strategic planning.

By declaring victory after creating a crisis of its own making, Team Trump demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of leadership. True negotiating strength comes not from threatening allies or disrupting established systems but building coalitions around shared interests and values.

As consumers soon discover the real costs of these policies at restaurants, car dealerships, and retail stores, the supposed victory will reveal itself as merely a retreat from a self-inflicted wound—one that leaves lasting economic scars while solving none of the underlying challenges it purported to address.

Enjoy the ride + Plan accordingly.

-Marc