The European Dilemma: Caught Between Models

Europe's geopolitical balancing act is a masterclass in complexity. While the US pursues "decoupling" from China, European leaders prefer the term "de-risking." This linguistic difference reveals a deeper struggle: how to balance economic efficiency with strategic autonomy. The German experience shows just how hard that is.

In November 2022, as the US was imposing strict export controls on semiconductors, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Beijing with a delegation of major business leaders. The message was clear: Germany and China are deeply intertwined.

+ Economic dependence: German industrial giants like Volkswagen, BMW, and BASF are heavily invested in the Chinese market. For example, VW sells over 3 million cars in China annually and operates 33 plants there.

+ Personal insight: As part of my EMBA program, I saw this firsthand during a visit to a SAIC Volkswagen plant in Shanghai. The scale of their operations shows just how established and integral they are to China's auto industry.

+ Political concessions: To ensure a smooth visit, Scholz overrode concerns at home and approved a deal allowing Chinese state-owned enterprise Cosco to invest in a container terminal at the Port of Hamburg. It was an undisputed globalization win for Beijing.

This push-and-pull is no accident. China has long played a "divide-and-defuse" strategy, using economic concessions to prevent a united front against it.

As German economic thinkers are now recognizing, this is a dangerous game. "The German economy is much more dependent on China than the other way round," says Juergen Matthes of the German Economic Institute. Like its former reliance on Russian energy, Germany's trade ties with China have become a strategic vulnerability.

The reality for Europe's economies is what economists call the "impossible trinity": They cannot simultaneously maintain close economic ties with China, security dependence on the United States, and strategic autonomy from both.

Can Europe truly "de-risk" without "decoupling?" Or is it just a more polite way of describing a precarious and increasingly risky balancing act?

-Marc

Detroit’s Factory Floor Has the Edge Over Boston’s Ivory Tower in the AI Game

Carl Benedikt Frey’s New York Times commentary piece warns about AI, echoing past fears of the 1970s, when factories closed and cities like Detroit took the hit. He points to Boston’s wins and Detroit’s losses as proof that brainpower beats muscle in today’s world. But that view is too narrow. Once AI leaves the lab, Detroit’s strengths matter more than Boston’s.

Boston has Harvard and MIT. No one doubts their brainpower or their skill for research. These schools produce brilliant thinkers and innovative ideas. But turning ideas into things that work in the real world takes more than brains. It takes the know-how to build, test, and scale up. Detroit has been doing that for over a hundred years.

Think about what happens when AI steps off the screen. Self-driving cars need real assembly lines. Smart factories need real plants, not just code. Robots with AI must integrate seamlessly into real-world supply chains. Detroit knows how to make millions of complex machines run day after day. Boston writes about these things. Detroit builds them.

Detroit’s auto industry learned hard lessons from global competition. Those lessons now give Detroit a leg up as AI moves from theory to practice. While Boston hosts debates, Detroit’s workers know how machines work on the ground. They know which sensors break first, where jams form, and how to fix things when the clock says 3 a.m. and the line can’t stop.

Money counts, too. In Boston, a startup can burn through its cash just keeping the lights on in a pricey Cambridge office. That same money in Detroit pays for double the space, more engineers, and actual tools. Lower costs allow Detroit companies to try new things and fail faster—a must for genuine innovation. When every dollar matters, Detroit’s budget lets teams take risks that Boston’s rent won’t allow.

Location matters as well. Detroit sits in the middle of North America’s industrial heart. Chicago, Toronto, Cleveland, and Milwaukee are close by. Together, this region makes more money than Germany’s whole economy. Boston may have fast ties to finance, but Detroit connects to the farms, factories, and delivery networks where AI will make the biggest mark.

The Great Lakes region is more than a place on the map. It has the power grids, roads, and skilled workers needed to make AI work in the real world. These are not just nice extras—they are must-haves when you want to go from theory to practice. Venture capital is good, but it won’t keep the lights on in a smart factory.

Some say Boston’s tech boom proves that knowledge work belongs on the coasts. They forget Detroit once led the world in new ideas, too. The difference now? Detroit learned from its past. The city recognizes that lasting success requires more than just bright ideas. You need to be able to build at scale.

Boston is great at creating AI. Detroit is great at making things that last. As AI shifts from research to daily life, the skills that built America’s car industry will matter more than the degrees that fill journals. The cities that can turn bright ideas into real products will win the future.

The next big wave in industry won’t come from ivory towers. It will come from factory floors, where workers are familiar with both the latest code and the oldest machines. Detroit’s mix of know-how, lower costs, and strong location puts it ahead of cities that only theorize. Frey should look past today’s headlines. Tomorrow’s AI winners will be those who can build, not just think.

While Trump swings, China builds its bloc

Picture this: Donald Trump lines up his shot at Mar-a-Lago, while Xi Jinping welcomes Kim Jong Un’s daughter to a state dinner. One leader chases a golf ball. The other builds the next world order.

While the US gets lost in its own noise, China moves with quiet purpose. Xi, Putin, and Kim have created something more substantial than a photo opportunity. They share weapons, money, and a plan to end Western power.

Let’s look at the facts. Three nuclear states now control a third of the world’s land. They hold rare earths, energy, and factories that make NATO look small. They plan in decades. We plan in news cycles.

Kim Jong Un brought his daughter to meet Xi last week. That’s not a detail, it’s a message. North Korea is thinking in generations. China told Pyongyang its value “will not change.” This isn’t a short-term deal. This is built to last.

Russia brings force. North Korea brings chaos. China brings cash and calls the shots. Together, they offer a new path for strongmen. Join us, they say, and you keep your power. Trade with us and skip Western rules. Buy our arms and forget about lectures on rights.

Now, US companies face a test. You can sell in China, but only by playing by Beijing’s rules. You can source from this bloc, but risk your supply chain being held hostage. Every choice in the boardroom is now a bet on which system will win.

The State Department still thinks tough words matter. Congress holds hearings, but little changes. Meanwhile, China’s engineers help Russia make new missiles. North Korean shells hit Ukraine. Beijing’s digital currency chips away at the dollar. Words don’t stand a chance against actions.

Business schools still teach cases from the 1990s, when the West thought its values would spread everywhere. Today’s MBA students need new lessons. The world is splitting in two: open or closed, free or controlled. Companies must pick a side or risk losing both.

This axis offers order, but through force. No real elections. No tough questions from the press. No courts to stop bad deals. For leaders tired of the mess of democracy, Beijing’s model can look smooth. That’s the trap. That’s what could undo everything America built after 1945.

Here’s the choice: accept this new order or fight for what matters. But fighting takes focus. Focus takes leaders who look past the next round of golf. While Trump perfects his swing, Xi perfects his plan. That’s the real game. And it’s one the US can’t afford to lose.