The song I have played for 40 years

This August, Peter Hook and the Light open a 21-date North American tour in Cleveland, playing New Order's Get Ready front to back, a record that turns 25 this year. A few weeks ago, New Order itself announced remastered and expanded editions of (The Best Of) and (The Rest Of). Two camps of the same Manchester lineage, one selling the deep cuts, one selling the hits, both betting on the same thing: that the songs people already love are the songs people will pay to hear again.

This hits home for me.

I have been listening to New Order's Age of Consent for more than 40 years. The song is from Power, Corruption & Lies, released in May 1983. Four decades on, I still cue it up. Sure, I am open to new music, and I secure recommendations from KCRW. But Age of Consent still gets heavy rotation.

Is something wrong with me?

No.

There is a name for what is happening, and it is one of the most useful ideas I know for thinking about how you run a business.

In Algorithms to Live By, Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths devote a chapter to a problem computer scientists call explore versus exploit.

Explore means gathering new information. Exploit means using what you already know to get the best result available. Every choice you make, which restaurant, which song, which market, which message, is a bet on one or the other. Choose the familiar, and you exploit. Choose the unknown, and you explore. The whole art is knowing which bet the moment calls for.

Right now, most leaders are all-in on exploration. Everyone wants the new platform, the new market, the new tool, the shiny object that is getting buzz this week. AI has poured gasoline on it. The volume of options has gone vertical, and the reflex is to chase whatever is novel before the window closes.

Here is the uncomfortable part. The novelty reflex is often the wrong bet.

It comes down to where you are in your company's life and your career. A startup is in its childhood. It should explore. It does not yet know what it sounds like, who its customer is, or which message lands, so it experiments until something clicks. That is the right bet for that stage.

A mature company is in its adulthood. It knows. It has a product that works, an audience that shows up, and a strategy that performs. For that company, endless exploration is not curiosity; it is avoidance. The discipline is to stop searching and exploit what works. Form the habit. Build the cadence. Show up the same way until your customers expect you, demand you, need you. That is how an advantage compounds, and you cannot compound something you abandon every quarter to chase the next thing.

Three things this means for leaders:

First, audit your presence honestly. If you are a known quantity with a working formula and you are still operating like a startup, hunting the next shiny object every month, you are exploring when you should be exploiting. You are leaving expertise on the table.

Second, separate the tactic from the message. The tactic will change, and it should. But the idea you are known for, the thing customers actually come to you for, does not need to chase the algorithm. Peter Hook is not rewriting Get Ready. He is playing it in full because it is good and because his audience wants it.

Third, do not confuse tired with underplayed. Most of the time, the message you think is stale is not stale at all. You are just bored with it. Your audience has heard it a fraction as often as you have. What feels old in the boardroom is often brand-new to the market.

The best leaders hold both at once. They keep a small budget for exploration, a few bets on the unknown, because never exploring is its own kind of failure. But they spend the bulk of their energy exploiting what they already know works, because that is where results actually come from. They know when to keep searching and when to keep playing.

The world has changed, and the temptation to start over has never been stronger. Most leaders treat every new platform, every new tool, every new market as proof they need to abandon what got them here. The leaders who win in this environment know the difference between a strategy that is exhausted and one that has more runway.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

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I help leaders sound like the smartest person in the room on what’s coming next — and know how to talk about it. | Founder @ Caracal Global + Brigadoon. | DET + WAS + EDI + LON

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Thinking through Anthropic and export controls

On Friday, June 12, 2026, at 5:21 pm Eastern, a letter from US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick landed at Anthropic. It ordered the company not to give its two most advanced AI models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, to any foreign national anywhere in the world without a license from the Commerce Department. It cited export-control statutes written for civilian technology with military intelligence uses. It threatened criminal and civil penalties. Because Anthropic had no way to verify every user's citizenship in real time, the only path to compliance was to shut both models down completely. Three days after launch, the most capable models the company had ever shipped went dark for everyone.

Think about this. A commercial software product, available to hundreds of millions of users, many of whom pay serious cash for advanced features, was reclassified as something closer to a bazooka over the weekend. No public rulemaking. No comment period. A letter on a Friday evening from a government whose former AI and crypto advisor, and current member of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, was spotted at the SpaceX IPO celebration in Times Square alongside a group of other close associates and longtime friends of Elon Musk.

This is the part most leaders get wrong about the moment we are in. They treat a development like this as someone else's problem, a tech-sector story, a Washington story, an Anthropic story. It is none of those things. It is a demonstration of how fast the line between "commercial product" and "controlled national-security asset" can now move, and in which direction. If you run anything that touches advanced computing, biotechnology, energy, advanced manufacturing, or critical infrastructure, the Anthropic letter is a live drill for your own company. It's a good time to be selling potato chips and not silicon chips.

Reading a moment like this like a pro is the discipline I call SIGNAL™, the framework I use with clients to make sense of a volatile operating environment: Sources, Inputs, Geography, Noise, Analysis, Loop. The hardest letter in that sequence right now is N, for Noise. Because two stories are being told about why this happened, and they do not match.

The official story is a security story. An administration official told Axios that Commerce acted after a third party claimed it had found a way to jailbreak Mythos, alarming the administration about a national security risk, and that the lockdown would remain in effect until, in the administration's telling, the government's security apparatus is hardened. Cybersecurity experts quoted by Reuters worry that Mythos, built to find flaws in code, could turbocharge attacks on bank systems.

The other story is a feud story. Reporting from several outlets notes the Trump administration's Defense Department had earlier labeled Anthropic a supply-chain risk after the company drew red lines around military use of its technology. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made the posture plain, posting on Saturday from @PeteHegseth: "Three months ago, @DeptofWar kicked @AnthropicAI out of our building—forever. Every passing day proves why that was the right move. 🇺🇸"

Read against that backdrop, an export-control letter arriving on a Friday night, three days after a flagship launch, citing a jailbreak the company says exposes nothing new, looks less like a clean security intervention and more like the next move in a fight that started months ago.

Here is the analytical point. You do not need to know which story is true to act. You need to recognize that when the official rationale and the likely rationale diverge this sharply, you are looking at engineered Noise, and the job is to plan for both readings at once. Treat the security rationale as real, because the statutory authority is real, and the next letter could be addressed to you. Treat the feud rationale as real, because it tells you the rules are now personal, relational, and reversible in ways no compliance manual will capture.

Three things this means for leaders right now:

First, your regulatory exposure is no longer just what is on the books. It is your standing with the people holding the pen. Anthropic, by several accounts, got here partly because it said no to the Pentagon on principle. That may prove to be the right call or a costly one, but the lesson is that the relationship was the risk surface. Know where you stand with your regulators before the letter arrives, not after.

Second, geography just reasserted itself. Within seventy-two hours, G7 leaders meeting at Évian-les-Bains were discussing a "trusted partners" scheme to carve out allied access to American models, with the EU separately seeking Mythos to study it. The buzz from France was that Anthropic was a bigger issue than the Strait of Hormuz. Makes sense. The reach of a US export order, the scramble of allies to route around it, and the question of which side of the line your operations sit on are all questions of place. If your business assumed a borderless market for advanced technology, that assumption expired on Friday.

Third, silence is a position, and usually the wrong one. The leaders who weather a reclassification like this are the ones who have already built the relationships, framed their own narrative, and earned the benefit of the doubt before the crisis. The ones who go quiet and lawyer up discover that by the time they have something to say, the story has already been written about them.

The world has changed. The way you need to explain it has not. Most leaders treat communications as a tactic for explaining decisions after they are made. The leaders who win in this environment treat communications as a strategy that shapes an audience's understanding before, during, and after a decision is made, not just as an explanation after the fact. When the people who can switch off your most valuable product over a weekend are also the people forming an impression of who you are, that impression is not a soft asset. It is the asset.

Most leaders find Caracal Global through a communications audit because they know something is off, but have not yet sorted out their focus, positioning, or voice. The leaders who want to become the definitive voice in their sector run an Issue Authority System, executed like a campaign. And underneath all of it runs intelligence, the daily discipline of reading the world accurately that makes any of it credible. That is the SIGNAL work. It is the proof, not the pitch.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

The Sporting Caracal Global | June 13, 2026

The Sporting Caracal Global

June 13, 2026 

Sport at the intersection of geopolitics, commerce, and governments. With insights for better communications from an athletic perspective, and a Madison Square Garden comeback that NYC will never forget.

The World Cup is finally underway. Mexico beat South Africa 2-0 at a roaring Estadio Azteca, Julian Quiñones scored the tournament's first goal, and nearly half the world is expected to tune in over the next five weeks. Compare that audience number with a Bloomberg poll showing that most Americans will not watch a single match of the tournament their country is co-hosting, and you have the communications story of the summer.

That is the lens this week. Five stories where the score matters less than who controls the story, plus the Person and Athlete of the Week.

The lead: The host country is the away team at its own World Cup

The story of the week in sport is not the opening match at the Azteca. It is those who could not get into the country that will host the next several rounds.

A Somali referee was denied entry to the United States, his World Cup dream over before it began. Two members of Iraq's national team were detained. Iran's squad will land the day before its first match, leaving no margin for error. A sports historian told Le Monde the referee decision sets "a dangerous precedent" two years before the LA Olympics. Meanwhile, hotels in Canada and Mexico are posting higher World Cup occupancy than US host cities, 180,000 tickets have hit the official resale portal with median prices down 20% in a month, and New York is spending roughly $503 million on a summer of events it cannot guarantee foreign fans will attend.

Readers of this memo have followed this thread since the May 9 launch: first the empty hotel rooms, then the pricing collapse, now the entry denials. Each chapter confirms the same structural failure. The tournament was sold as a soft-power triumph, and the host's own administrative actions keep contradicting the sales pitch. Half the world is watching the world's biggest sporting event, and a meaningful share of what it sees about America is a closed door.

The communications principle holds: pre-empting a bad narrative is cheaper than correcting one. The US had two years to align visa policy with tournament messaging. It is now correcting in real time, on the biggest stage there is, at full retail price.

The last truly global audience just got more valuable

The Economist made an argument this week that every brand strategist should embrace: entertainment is going local. From music to television, audiences worldwide are tuning out American content and embracing alternatives closer to home. But the World Cup, with nearly half of humanity watching, is the exception.

If shared global moments are disappearing, the few that remain command a premium in attention, emotion, and price. Prediction market wagers on the World Cup winner have already climbed to $2 billion, putting the market on track to become Polymarket's largest ever. The capital is confirming what the culture is signaling: this is the one event the whole planet still experiences together.

For senior executives and founders, the implication cuts two ways. The value of authentic presence at genuinely global moments is rising because there are fewer of them. And the cost of faking that presence is rising too, because a fragmented audience has gotten very good at detecting an outsider renting a moment that does not belong to it. The local-content boom means your global message now lands in a hundred different local contexts. The brands that win this tournament will be the ones that understand the World Cup is global precisely because every fan experiences it as local.

+ David C. Baker: "I was listening to a few economists talk about soccer on the world stage yesterday, and they said something interesting: the most popular sport in the world is not the most popular sport in the world's three most populous countries. That's a remarkable fact."

Skechers was on the court before the moment arrived

OG Anunoby made the leap that set up the Knicks' historic Game 4 comeback, the one that has New York one win from its first championship since 1973, wearing Skechers. The brand launched its first technical basketball shoe less than three years ago. It holds under 6% of the global sports footwear market. And it just got the most valuable credibility injection in basketball, in the NBA Finals, for the price of a roster deal signed a year ago.

This is the communications lesson challenger brands keep relearning the hard way: you cannot buy your way into a moment after it happens. Nike could outspend Skechers a hundredfold tomorrow and not purchase what Anunoby's leap delivered, because credibility at the peak of attention is only available to those who positioned before the peak. Skechers signed the player, built the product line, added a multi-year WNBA partnership, and then waited for sport to do what sport does.

Most companies chase the moment that already happened, paying premium prices for association with last week's story. The better play is Skechers' play: identify where the moments will concentrate, take real positions early, and accept that most will not pay off, because the one that does pays for everything.

Team USA will be asked about everything except soccer

Will Leitch made the point in The Washington Post: Trump's culture wars will chase the US men's national team throughout this entire tournament, and the golden US hockey team has already proved there is almost no way to get it right. Stand for the anthem, kneel, visit the White House, decline, say something, say nothing. Every option is a position, and the players did not choose the battlefield.

Layer on the Guardian's reporting that open Christian faith has become central to this USMNT's identity, from Pulisic to McKennie, and a UFC cage match on the South Lawn for the president's birthday, coupled with the #USMNT opening play at SoFi last night, you have a national team operating inside the most politically charged home World Cup ever staged.

The lesson here is for federations, sponsors, and any organization whose people will face value questions on camera: neutrality will not be available, and improvisation is the worst strategy. The athletes who navigate this well will be the ones whose answers were decided before the question came, calm, consistent, and their own. The same is true for the brands behind them. If your name is on the shirt, you have a position, whether you state one or not. Know it now, while the question is still hypothetical.

+ @Jermainejunior: Sorry to spoil the party, but this doesn’t feel anything like the World Cup atmosphere of 1994. Walk outside, and hardly anyone seems to care. It's wild that the NBA Finals are getting more attention than the biggest sporting event on the planet. Welcome to America. 🇺🇸⚽

LIV Golf and the message inside a wire transfer

The FT reports Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund has injected only a third of the $600 million it pledged to LIV Golf for 2026, leaving the remainder of the season's events in doubt.

Two weeks ago, this memo tracked the Saudi sports story leaving the arena: the Esports World Cup decamping to Paris, bankruptcy planning at LIV. The drip-feed funding is the next data point, and it is the most honest communication Riyadh has issued on the subject. Press releases said a long-term commitment. The wire transfers say something else, and sophisticated stakeholders, players, agents, broadcasters, and sponsors read the transfers.

That is the durable principle: in any funded venture, the funder's behavior is the message, and it always outranks the funder's statements. Slow-walked capital tells every counterparty to start hedging, which accelerates the very collapse the funder is trying to avoid paying for. If you are the money and you intend to stay, fund visibly and on schedule, because the cadence of your support is read as a forecast. If you are the venture, the moment the cadence changes is the moment your communications strategy must shift from promotion to retention, because everyone on your roster has already noticed.

Person of the Week: Gianni Infantino

The FIFA president has spent years engineering this tournament around a single relationship, currying favor with President Trump so thoroughly that the WSJ describes him as staging the biggest World Cup in history for an audience of one. This week, as the bill for that strategy came due, his crisis communications consisted of defending the highest ticket prices ever charged and telling fans upset about the Somali referee's denial of entry that they "should chill" because "we don't live on the moon."

As a communications case study, Infantino is fascinating and cautionary in equal measure. The concentrated-stakeholder strategy is real, and it has worked: the tournament is happening, across three countries, with the White House invested in its success. Managing one decisive stakeholder is efficient. But it is also fragile, because it leaves you with no constituency when that stakeholder's actions, visa denials, immigration raids, travel bans, start damaging your product. Infantino cannot criticize the policies that are hurting his tournament because his entire position is built on the man who made them.

And "chill" is what a leader says when he has no other message available. Telling your angriest customers to relax is not crisis communications. It is the sound of a strategy that has run out of room. The next five weeks will show whether an audience of one is enough to carry an event built for an audience of four billion.

Athlete of the Week: Charlie Dalin

The French sailor Charlie Dalin died Thursday at 42, after a long illness, having carried through the greatest feat of his career. In the 2024-25 Vendée Globe, the solo, non-stop race around the world known as the Everest of the Seas, Dalin sailed 24,000 miles in 64 days, beating the previous record by nearly 10 days, while privately undergoing immunotherapy for advanced gastrointestinal cancer throughout the race. Only his family and medical staff knew. He revealed it a year later, in a memoir.

This memo usually identifies the communication stakes, and Dalin's life hinges on one of the hardest ones: when to share and when to hold. He crossed the finish line with a red flare in each hand, considered announcing his condition to the waiting thousands, and decided it was not the moment. That was not concealment. It was timing, and timing is the whole discipline. He let the achievement stand on its own first, undiluted by the story behind it, then chose his own ground, a book, to reveal what it had cost. Most people facing a hard truth either blurt it or bury it. Dalin did neither. He held it until disclosure served the meaning rather than the spectacle, and the revelation landed harder for the wait.

There is no client lesson to extract here, and it would cheapen him to force one. Some weeks, the right move is to note rare courage and let it be. Fair winds, Charlie.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

— Marc

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal Global | The Sporting Caracal Global is published on Saturdays.

The Sporting Caracal Global is a weekly memo applying the Caracal Global lens to sport: globalization, soft power, governments, and commerce, resolved on the communications stakes that decide who wins on and off the pitch.

Caracal Global is a communications firm for global business at the intersection of geopolitics, commerce, and governments. Specializing in Globalization + American Politics. Intelligence + Strategy + Communications.