*** Ross Rant ***
The Turkish football scandal isn't about football
Turkey's football gambling crisis is unprecedented. 300 players banned, entire leagues suspended, and 150 referees implicated. This looks like a sports story, but it is an economic story.
It's actually a case study in institutional collapse under economic pressure. When inflation erodes purchasing power and trust in institutions weakens, informal economies flourish.
Turkish referees and lower-tier players weren't simply greedy. They were responding rationally to a cost-of-living crisis that made side income essential. The betting site at the center of the scandal, Misli, was itself a league sponsor controlled by associates of the football federation's former head.
This pattern extends beyond Turkey.
MLB pitchers now face charges for pitch manipulation tied to sports betting. US prediction markets have seen sports contracts surge past political and financial categories. The common thread: legalized gambling creates systemic vulnerabilities in institutions already strained by economic and political pressures.
For global companies, the lesson isn't about sports integrity, it's about recognizing when economic stress transforms institutional risk. When employees, contractors, or partners face financial pressure in markets with weak governance, compliance frameworks built for stable conditions fail predictably.
Executives should audit exposure in markets where three factors converge: high inflation, weakened institutions, and newly legalized vice industries.
The question isn't whether your sector faces gambling-specific risks. It's whether economic pressure is creating incentives for institutional participants to operate outside formal rules—and whether your compliance architecture can detect it before prosecutors do.
Moral crises are usually economic crises first.
—Marc
*** Caracal Daily ***
China can’t afford to ignore its army of gig workers: Pivoting to a tech-driven growth model after the collapse of the property sector is a sensible move for China. The strategy has helped Beijing win a trade truce with Washington. But it may take years for the country’s industrial giants to mature enough to create enough jobs. Juliana Liu
China is priming its people and the world for a new pressure campaign on Taiwan: Beijing’s strategy, known as ‘the pen and the gun,’ employs a domestic media campaign and aggressive rhetoric toward Taipei’s friends. WSJ
Fears grow Japan-China spat may spiral into worst crisis since 2012: Observers see parallels with freeze in relations over disputed Senkaku Islands. Nikkei
US ‘has Sanae Takaichi’s back’ in Japan’s escalating row with China: Ambassador offers Japanese PM ‘unshakeable’ support after Beijing imposes economic measures. FT
Bloomberg: US-China rivalry to persist despite trade truce, Singapore Says
+ Fierce competition between the US and China will continue, said Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, despite a recent meeting between the two leaders that created an opportunity for the two economic superpowers to engage and de-escalate.
+ The guardrails will ensure the rivalry does not slide into a full decoupling, or worse confrontation and conflict, Wong said, and the US and China reached a detente at a summit in South Korea in October.
+ Singapore will engage "issue by issue" and through the lens of Singapore's national interest, Wong said, adding that the country does not have to choose between the two powers.
The Pentagon’s missing China strategy: Washington still lacks a credible military plan for deterring Beijing. Seth G. Jones
A Chinese firm bought an insurer for CIA agents - part of Beijing's trillion dollar spending spree BBC
Bloomberg: US accuses four of smuggling advanced Nvidia chips to China
North Korea forges closer ties with Russia, China in quest for new power bloc: A year after sending troops to Ukraine war, Pyongyang's reward seen as political, not economic. Nikkei
Axios: Zelensky agrees to negotiate on Trump's peace plan for Ukraine
Ukraine says it received 'draft plan' from the US to end war: Le Monde reports Washington officially presented a 'draft plan' to Volodymyr Zelensky, but neither side has divulged details of the proposal. Zelensky's office said he expected to discuss the points with Donald Trump in the coming days.
Ukraine fears a US pressure campaign to accept the peace plan drawn up with Russia: FT reports Trump pushes Kyiv to make major concessions on land, size of armed forces, and weapons.
US delivers peace plan for Ukraine, sparking fears of ‘capitulation’: WP reports Kyiv’s European partners said they should be involved in proposals for the security of Ukraine and Europe, indicating they hadn’t even been briefed on the plan.
White House’s Ukraine peace plan draws pushback: European officials expressed concerns about any proposal negotiated without Ukraine. WSJ
Ukraine and Europe chafe at being excluded from US-Russian peace plan: NYT reports some in Kyiv expressed confusion over the Trump administration’s multiple diplomatic tracks as Washington tries to revive negotiations.
A terrible American-Russian proposal to end the war in Ukraine: Steve Witkoff’s “peace deal” looks like a Russian wish list, and Ukraine is not biting. Economist
Ukraine peace plan: How seriously should we take the proposed deal? The 28-point plan, drawn up by officials in Russia and Steve Witkoff, the US envoy, would force the country to cede land to Moscow and has been widely criticised. The Times
Why Europe can’t go it alone on Ukraine: The continent cannot afford to fund Kyiv’s war effort. Owen Matthews
The surreal 45-day trek at the heart of NATO’s defence: Europe wrestles with crumbling bridges, narrow tunnels and red tape as it plans how to move an army eastward. FT
French general: We must be ready to ‘lose our children’ in war: Fabien Mandon, the new head of the armed forces, has caused an outcry by claiming his countrymen lacked the ‘strength of soul’ needed for conflict with Putin. The Times
Bloomberg: EU warns its ties to China hamper ability to punish Russia
+ The European Union's deep economic ties to China are constraining its ability to pressure Beijing over Russia's war in Ukraine, the bloc's top diplomat said.
+ The EU's high representative for foreign affairs, Kaja Kallas, said China "might also hurt you, and that's the problem" if the EU is not willing to pay the price that China is going to impose.
+ Kallas encouraged allies to confront China together, noting that the US, UK, Australia, Japan, and others are also affected by Beijing's actions.
Ukraine enlists civilians in its hunt for Russian drones: In response to an ever-evolving and increasingly large-scale aerial threat, Kyiv is building a complex air defense system, featuring innovative, low-cost surface-to-air solutions that can be operated by civilians. Le Monde
Ukraine's grain sector is facing increasing pressure due to war-related disruptions and adverse weather conditions, with power shortages, logistical challenges in wheat production, and significant harvesting delays straining corn supply chains nationwide.
European sulfur and sulfuric acid producers are facing an affordability crisis as sulfur feedstock costs surge, prompting some facilities to consider closures and a shift in regional trade patterns.
US sanctions loosen Russia’s grip on Serbia by forcing sale of oil company: WSJ reports the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company is in talks to buy NIS after its energy imports were halted by Trump administration enforcement.
Indian conglomerate to stop Russian oil imports amid pressure from Trump: WP reports Thursday’s announcement by Reliance Industries that it had stopped importing crude oil from Russia was a seemingly significant concession to Washington.
How tiny details expose Putin’s location: President keeps identical offices across Russia to obscure movements - but small clues give him away. Telegraph
‘Too little, too late’: Damning report condemns UK’s COVID response: Report on handling of pandemic contains stinging criticism of ‘toxic and chaotic’ culture inside Boris Johnson’s No 10. Guardian
+ ‘Chaotic and indecisive’: Key findings of report on UK’s Covid response under Tories
+ Dominic Cummings ‘poisoned the atmosphere’ of Boris Johnson’s No 10, COVID inquiry finds
23,000 died because government COVID response ‘too little, too late’: The Times reports an excoriating report by the UK COVID-19 inquiry says Boris Johnson failed to appreciate the calamity facing the UK in early 2020.
Rachel Reeves’ gambit: A year after her last bombshell Budget, the chancellor is once again mired in political chaos. Could the fallout consume both her and Sir Keir Starmer? FT
Bloomberg: UK to create new fast-track residency path for high-earners
+ The UK government has unveiled a new fast-track path to residency for high-earners, with visa-holders earning more than £125,000 allowed to apply for indefinite leave to remain after three years.
+ The quicker route to residency would also be open to entrepreneurs who hold Global Talent and Innovator Founder visas, while those earning salaries between £50,000 and £125,000 would have to wait five years.
+ Applicants for indefinite leave to remain must have a clean criminal record, paid payroll tax contributions, owe no debt to the state, and proven English-language proficiency, with penalties added for certain offenses, such as claiming benefits.
Danish PM’s dismal polling shows limits of right-turn on migration: Mette Frederiksen’s gamble on tough asylum policy backfires as socially liberal urbanites and rural voters abandon her centrist party in local elections. The Times
How Spain is still wrestling with Franco’s legacy 50 years later: The dictator’s Valley of the Fallen, which contains the remains of thousands of soldiers, has returned to the heart of political debate. The Times
'The Nuremberg trials mark a seminal moment that put an end to the impunity of heads of state': On November 20, 1945, in the southern German city of Nuremberg, a historic trial began for around 20 top Nazi officials. Historian Sylvie Lindeperg recalls how the event became a major milestone for international justice. Le Monde
Bloomberg: Trump calls Saudi Arabia a major non-NATO ally in boost to MBS
US and Saudi Arabia reach deal for rare earths facility in Gulf kingdom: FT reports mining group MP Materials will share minority stake in joint venture with US government to build and operate facility.
BBC: UK will not tolerate Chinese spying, minister says after MI5 alert
Trump’s little British helpers: Nobody should be surprised that the US president has the BBC in his sights. Edward Luce
Unlocking Africa’s economic potential for faster long-term growth: Faster growth in Africa is needed to increase upward economic mobility opportunities for the continent’s rapidly expanding population.
S&P Global
Demographic discontent across Africa is a ticking time bomb: The continent’s young are losing faith in gerontocratic leadership. David Pilling
How South Africa’s underworld infiltrated its government: A televised inquiry probing the nexus of rogue police, officials, and gangsters has electrified the country. FT
South Africa claims US has had ‘change of mind’ on G20 boycott: FT reports Washington to send official to closing ceremony after Trump administration previously refused to take part in summit.
Trump’s total boycott of G20 casts shadow over its future: ‘It’s bleak,’ says senior European diplomat involved in preparations for summit. FT
Turkey will host COP31 in 2026 after reaching an agreement with Australia.
COP30 overshadowed by trade tensions: 'How to collaborate on decarbonization while protecting economic interests': The issue of international trade has taken on unprecedented importance in the global climate negotiations currently underway in Brazil. Disagreements center on the European carbon border adjustment mechanism. Le Monde
Lula at climate summit: US might not be gone for good: Politico reports Brazil's leader said he hopes “one day to convince the president of the United States that the climate crisis is serious” — and to join a phase-out of fossil fuels.
Jailhouse shock: Brazil coup monger Bolsonaro finally faces life behind bars: Guardian reports the former president’s far-right supporters have discovered a new interest in prison conditions as incarceration looms.
New US ambassador slams Chile’s president for criticizing Trump: Bloomberg reports Chilean President Gabriel Boric’s recent criticism of Donald Trump was “disappointing” and shows how far bilateral relations “have fallen,” the newly arrived US ambassador said at his first press conference.
+ US Ambassador to Chile Brandon Judd said Chilean President Gabriel Boric's criticism of Donald Trump was "disappointing" and shows how far bilateral relations "have fallen".
+ Judd stated that Boric's comments were unwarranted, given that the US is at "the forefront of dealing with environmental issues", and that they hurt the Chilean people in ongoing negotiations.
+ Judd expressed disapproval of Boric's attitude and views on Trump, saying that if Boric has concerns, he should "pick up the phone" and talk to US officials, rather than criticizing them publicly.
Cuba is heading for disaster, unless its regime changes drastically: An upheaval beckons in an increasingly miserable country. Economist
US ran a war game on ousting Maduro. Venezuela fell into chaos. An official US government exercise during President Trump’s first term forecast turmoil and potential violence in a post-Maduro Venezuela. NYT
Democrats raise concerns over allied curbs on intelligence sharing: NYT reports Britain’s limits on sharing information reflect growing unease among partner nations over the legality of the US strikes on boats purportedly carrying drugs.
Holiday hiring slows, frustrating job seekers: NYT reports retailers are adding fewer of the seasonal roles that many Americans rely on to make ends meet.
Dick Cheney and the fruits of regime change: He has largely proved right about Iraq and the broader Middle East. Barton Swaim
Cheney remembered as ‘highly disciplined mind’ at funeral: Former President George W. Bush and all living former VPs attended; Trump, Vance weren’t invited. WSJ
Cheney’s funeral draws Bush, mix of Democrats and Republicans. Not Trump. WP reports Dick Cheney, the former vice president and a consummate Washington insider across four decades, was remembered as a shrewd and steady tactician.
Cheney remembered for transforming national security and standing against Trump: As the former vice president is honored at Washington National Cathedral on Thursday, many eyes are focused on who came — and who did not. NYT
Dick Cheney and the false nostalgia for the good Republican Ross Barkan
How Donald Trump is turning into Joe Biden: It’s about more than denying inflation. Economist
Is Donald Trump a game theorist? There may be method to his madness. Christopher Caldwell
Trump wanted to abolish FEMA. His own advisers disagree. NYT reports a panel convened by President Trump is said to have rejected the president’s idea that the agency should “go away.”
Trump officials unveil plan to drill for oil off California, sparking a fight: WP reports Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom declared the plan “dead on arrival” before it was released. The last federal oil lease sale in the Pacific was in 1984.
Trump plans to open more than a billion acres of US waters to drilling: WP reports the plan from the Interior Department is one of the president’s most significant steps yet to increase domestic fossil fuel production.
Trump calls for arrest of Democrats who urged troops to disobey illegal orders: WSJ reports: ‘You must refuse illegal orders,’ Democratic lawmakers said in video released this week.
Trump calls Democrats ‘traitors’ for telling military to refuse unlawful orders: WP reports the president said lawmakers who appeared in a video committed “seditious behavior” and should be arrested and put on trial for treason.
NYT: President calls Democrats’ video to military ‘punishable by death’
Donald Trump accuses Democrats of ‘seditious behaviour’ punishable by death over video: FT reports threat comes after lawmakers tell members of US military that they must refuse illegal orders.
Trump’s Toddler Response to the Epstein Saga: The president baits, deflects, and chews the scenery in a drama that just won’t die. Jonathan Chait
Welcome to Anything Goes America: Where the loosening of rules and tolerance of corruption will lead. Economist
The rise of the ‘Sex and the City Conservative’: What does it mean to be a MAGA woman in 2025? Elaine Godfrey
The MAGA world, divided over Trump's politics and eaten away by neo-Nazi movement: The Epstein case, tech billionaires, Venezuela, Israel: The movement that brought Donald Trump back to the White House now finds itself splintered on numerous fronts. An openly antisemitic, racist, and misogynistic current is gaining ground around Nick Fuentes. Le Monde
The GOP’s government enablers: Republican populists sound like Democrats as they vent their rage against Big Business. Kimberley A. Strassel
In America’s suburbs, frustrated middle-class voters are up for grabs: Wealthy districts voted Democratic on Tuesday, but middle-income voters could swing most House battlegrounds next year. WSJ
Why American-style polarisation is spreading across the West: New research shows how incentives in the modern media ecosystem help explain rising division and negativity. John Burn-Murdoch
As Trump plans backfire, Democrats are ahead in House redistricting fight: WP reports after early redistricting wins, Trump faces setbacks over maps for Texas, Indiana, and other Republican-led states, frustrating his allies.
Texas Republicans have gerrymandered their way into a corner: If the courts don’t stop them, Hispanic voters may punish them. Economist
In a Fox News Poll out Wednesday evening, voters said the White House is doing more harm than good on the economy: 46% said they've been hurt by the administration's economic policies, 15% say they've been helped and 39% said Trump has made no difference.
Today: New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani will meet Trump in the Oval Office.
CNN: Democrats are debating how to approach the new Marjorie Taylor Greene
WP: Trump-Marjorie Taylor Greene breakup shakes MAGA: ‘Mom and Dad are separated’
Marjorie Taylor Greene: anti-Trump resistance hero? The left sees that she might be useful in their war to bring down Trump. Douglas Murray
Indicted Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick of Florida will step aside from her leadership position on a House Foreign Affairs subcommittee “while the matter is ongoing,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ office said Thursday morning. A federal grand jury indicted her on Wednesday on charges of embezzling $5 million in disaster funds.
‘Nations Apart’ review: The republic by region: The strongest divisions in our politics may have emerged from patterns of early American settlement. WSJ
‘I wanna blow this up’: How Bari Weiss is trying to overhaul CBS News: The new editor in chief is personally recruiting potential anchors, booking guests herself, and asking staff what they do. WSJ
Is a global housing bubble about to burst? It’s unlikely, according to a report by the Swiss bank UBS, but some markets are more vulnerable than others. NYT
WSJ: Stock-market rebound evaporates as AI fears resurface
He’s been right about AI for 40 years. Now he thinks everyone is wrong. Yann LeCun invented many fundamental components of modern AI. Now he’s convinced most in his field have been led astray by the siren song of large language models. WSJ
To meld AI with supercomputers, national labs are picking up the pace: AI has added urgency to the US national laboratories that have been sites of cutting-edge scientific research, leading to deals with tech giants like Nvidia to speed up. NYT
AI = "fearful and distrustful": Edelman this week released a flash update to its highly influential Trust Barometer, showing Americans are deeply fearful and distrustful of the Trump administration's top domestic fixation: accelerating AI. Big majorities are pessimistic about the technology broadly, and super-anxious that robots will eat their jobs.
+ "People might believe that AI is globalization 2.0 — that jobs will shift out of our country, and jobs will go to ... somebody younger or cheaper." -- Edelman CEO Richard Edelman
White House drafts order directing Justice Department to sue states that pass AI regulations: WP reports the proposal comes after Republicans failed to get a federal block on state AI legislation approved in Congress.
Donald Trump’s support for pro-AI proposal fuels MAGA backlash: US president endorses move to restrict regulation by states after lobbying from Silicon Valley. FT
A White House power grab on AI would be a huge mistake Dave Lee
Don’t let AI ruin the em dash: In defense of the newly controversial punctuation mark, which has become a target for those determined to root out AI writing. Joel Stein
Apple will need to move on from the Tim Cook gravy train: Tech group’s next chief must convince shareholders it is time to expand the scale of the company’s bets. Richard Waters
How do you replace a CEO like Tim Cook or Warren Buffett? Some shoes seem just too big to fill. Economist
GE HealthCare Technologies is buying Intelerad Medical Systems, a maker of medical imaging software, for $2.3 billion in cash to expand its efforts in cloud software and artificial intelligence.
Toyoda’s MAGA cosplay disguises Japan’s pain: The shrinking, ageing economy is in critical need of mechanisms to attract the world’s best. Leo Lewis
Walmart to shift listing to Nasdaq as retailer raises sales forecasts: FT reports US behemoth’s switch is the biggest by company market value between the exchanges.
Quince knows what you’re looking for. And it’s making it cheaper: Inside the California company’s quest to sell you everything from cashmere to caviar for less than the competition. WSJ
Gap reported stronger-than-expected sales, a sign that celebrity-fueled marketing, flashy collaborations, and a revamped inventory are luring in consumers.
Weed drinks that get you very, very high could be gone soon: Cannabis beverages with up to 100mg of THC are increasingly popular. A ban on hemp is threatening their survival. Bloomberg
7 of the most innovative cities in the world that push sustainable growth in 2025: From Zurich to Copenhagen, explore the cities redefining smart, green, and connected living in 2025. IE
Give Stellan Skarsgård an Oscar for Sentimental Value: Joachim Trier’s film shows us what compassion is. Germán Saucedo
+ MR: Sentimental Value is one of the top two films I have seen this year (the other is Hamnet, which in many ways has the same throughline as Sentimental Value) and will do exceptionally well this awards season. Stellan Skarsgård is a peak performance in this film.
‘Death by Lightning’ review: A president struck down on Netflix: Michael Shannon and Matthew Macfadyen star as James Garfield and his crazed assassin in this gripping four-part series. WSJ
Meet the $50mn ‘experience designers’ for the 0.01 percent: House reveals, heli-skiing, and branded condoms are all in a day’s work for the professionals who curate billionaires’ lives. FT
Are we becoming post-literate? Audio-driven content is rendering reading and writing obsolete. Katherine Dee
After 167 years in New York, a priceless coin collection heads to Toledo: The doubloons, dollars, and denarii of the American Numismatic Society will leave their overlooked home in Manhattan for a more welcoming headquarters on the campus of the Toledo Museum of Art. NYT
Guardian: Paramount to show most Champions League games in UK from 2027-31
+ US network made largest bid at this week’s auction
+ Amazon Prime will have first pick of Tuesday matches
Paramount makes surprise knockout bid for UK Champions League rights: US media group shocks sports rights market with European football push. FT
Scotland’s wild World Cup moment was built by collective will and individual brilliance: Steve Clarke’s history-making team have a ferocious work ethic that should typify what Scotland stands for. Ewan Murray
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | November 21
