Caracal Daily | November 24

Secret US-Russia talks led to plan that blindsided Ukraine: The controversial 28-point plan dropped suddenly by the Trump administration to Ukraine as a take-it-or-leave it proposition mere days ago was mostly the result of several weeks of negotiations behind the scenes between Steve Witkoff and his Russian counterpart Kirill Dmitriev that excluded not only Ukraine and its allies but even some key US officials. Bloomberg

Trump envoys issue ultimatum to Ukraine to sign peace deal by Thursday: FT reports hardline message over US-Russia plan at volatile meeting in Kyiv sparks alarm among European allies.

Russia stuck to its demands on Ukraine. Many are now in Trump’s peace plan. WSJ reports Moscow has repeated its desire to neutralize Kyiv’s military and stop the expansion of NATO through diplomacy—or on the battlefield.

Trump criticises ‘zero gratitude’ of Ukraine as European officials meet: The Times reports top advisers are meeting in Geneva to discuss the proposed 28-point peace plan, which has been criticised for ceding too much to Putin.

NYT: President calls Ukraine ungrateful as US officials push for peace deal

Donald Trump attacks Ukrainian and European leaders as peace talks start:
FT reports meeting in Geneva comes as confusion mounts over US position on proposal to end war with Russia.

Ukraine, allies meet in Geneva to discuss contentious US peace plan: G+M reports Kyiv and its allies, including Canada, are pushing to revise the plan that is seen as favouring Moscow.

US, Ukrainian and European officials meet in Geneva for talks on peace plan: DW reports officials from the United States, Ukraine, and national security advisers from France, the United Kingdom, and Germany are meeting in Geneva today to review Washington’s draft proposal to end the war in Ukraine.

Europeans push back on US plan during Geneva talks: DW reports a group of US lawmakers says Marco Rubio told them the Trump-backed peace plan is a Russian "wish list." Washington's top diplomat, however, insists it was US-authored.

US senators say Rubio told them Trump’s Ukraine peace plan is Russia's 'wish list': AP reports US senators critical of President Donald Trump’s approach to ending the Russia-Ukraine war said Saturday they spoke with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio who told them that the peace plan Trump is pushing Kyiv to accept is a “wish list” of the Russians and not the actual US plan.

+ A State Department spokesperson denied their account, calling it “blatantly false.”

Trump says Ukraine peace plan isn’t final after criticism it favors Russia: The proposal’s detractors are trying to convince the White House that the 28-point plan should be a starting point for Moscow-Kyiv talks. WSJ

Politico: Lawmakers say Rubio distanced US from peace plan

+ Members of Congress attending an international security forum said Secretary of State Marco Rubio called them to say the Americans did not instigate the proposal.

+ US lawmakers attempted Saturday to reverse days of confusion around a leaked peace plan for Ukraine, saying Secretary of State Marco Rubio assured them the document does not represent the Trump administration’s position.

+ Rubio called the bipartisan delegation to the Halifax International Security Forum on Saturday afternoon, they said, while en route to Geneva for talks with Ukrainian officials. He described the plan as a Russian proposal, they said, and not a US initiative.


Trump issues an ultimatum to Ukraine: His latest peace offer fulfills Vladimir Putin’s wishes and leaves Kyiv with a terrible choice. WSJ-Editorial

Bloomberg: Ukraine seeks NATO-like shield from US, counter-plan says

+ Ukraine and its European allies will insist that discussions with Russia on any territorial swaps can only take place once the war ceases along the current line of contact.

+ Their response to the US plan asks for a security guarantee from Americans that mirrors NATO’s Article 5 mutual-defense clause and demands that frozen Russian assets be used to reconstruct and compensate Kyiv.

+ The European response rejects Moscow’s demands that Kyiv cede unoccupied territory in the east and proposes that other sanctions would be lifted in phases if Russia abides by the deal.


Zelensky may never have faced a more agonizing choice: US officials tell me Trump’s peace plan is flexible, but a painful decision lies at its core. David Ignatius

In his tightest corner yet, will Zelensky rise to the occasion? Over nearly four years of wartime leadership, analysts say the Ukrainian leader has repeatedly played weak hands wisely. A US peace plan may be his biggest test. NYT

Trump says Zelensky can agree to peace plan or ‘fight his little heart out’: The comment is part of a White House push to get Ukraine’s leaders to agree to a 28-point plan for ending the war that has drawn criticism, including from GOP lawmakers, for being favorable to Moscow. WP

War in Ukraine: Europe's race against time to try to rewrite Trump's plan: Officials from the United States, Ukraine, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the European Union are set to meet in Geneva on Sunday, November 23, to discuss a document drawn up by Washington that carries a November 27 deadline. Le Monde

Donald Trump’s peace plan would be bad for Ukraine, Europe, and America: It is a sad mix of naked opportunism and strategic myopia. Economist

Ukraine needs Russia’s frozen $200 billion immediately, Europe: With Trump seeking Kyiv’s capitulation to Russia, now is the moment for decisive European action. Max Boot

The walls are closing in on Zelensky: Ukraine faces a triple threat amid growing casualties, a corruption scandal, and a peace plan that amounts to capitulation. Colin Freeman

Fiona Hill, geopolitical strategist: 'The US is giving Russia tremendous influence over Europe': According to the former Trump adviser, 'This White House wants Ukraine to capitulate to Russian demands to end this war, without proper consideration of all the factors at play.' Le Monde

How Trump turned European diplomacy into a cycle of flattery and humiliation: To maintain a transatlantic relationship seen as essential, Europe has adapted to the US president's unpredictable demands, even at the risk of slipping into servility. Le Monde

Japan's pacifism put to test amid tensions with China: By emphasizing the dangers facing the archipelago, Japan's right wing seeks to stoke public anxiety in order to justify expanding the country's military capabilities. Philippe Pons

Japan confirmed that deployments of missiles near Taiwan were proceeding as scheduled.

China’s risky challenge to Japan — and the US: The diplomatic rift between Beijing and Tokyo is also a test of Washington’s appetite for engagement with the region. FT

The failed crusade to keep a rare-earths mine out of China’s hands: The failure of one Western company to build a China-free rare-earths supply shows how Beijing has come to dominate the supply. WSJ

Economist Philippe Aghion: ‘Macron’s legacy will be better than people think’: France’s new Nobel laureate on stimulating growth, the power of creative destruction — and why Karl Lagerfeld helped him with his homework. FT

How the US tried to undermine the G20 summit in South Africa: Washington is boycotting the event taking place in Johannesburg. Yet despite intimidation from Trump, South Africa has pushed ahead with its agenda. Mathilde Boussion

G20 adopts declaration despite US boycott: DW reports it is unusual for world leaders to adopt a declaration at the start of the G20. Officials from G20 summit host South Africa said Washington had pressured them not to adopt a declaration in its absence. 

COP30 ends with a whimper: The climate conference acknowledged that more climate action is needed, then failed to provide it. Economist

Brazil's ex-president Bolsonaro placed in preventive detention following an astonishing escape attempt:
Le Monde reports under house arrest as he pursues his final appeals against a conviction for attempting a coup, the far-right former president tried to burn through his electronic ankle monitor. He has since been placed in isolation.

Trump’s tariffs hand Lula a political gift in Brazil: WSJ reports the Brazilian president defied Washington’s attempts to use tariffs to save Jair Bolsonaro, Trump’s right-wing ally, from jail—and the US relented.

We analyzed 5,000 calls to find out what CEOs really think about tariffs: Trump’s trade war is a pain, but less so than many executives expected. WSJ

White House considers leaflet drop to pressure Maduro on his birthday: WP reports the Trump administration has proposed a psychological operation to demoralize the Venezuelan leader and encourage him to flee the country, according to people familiar with planning.

What does US 'terrorist' designation for Venezuela mean? AFP reports Washington's designation of an alleged Venezuelan cartel as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) takes effect on Monday, opening the door to new forms of US pressure on President Nicolas Maduro.

Brazil 'very concerned' about US naval build-up near Venezuela: AFP reports Brazil is "very concerned" about a US military build-up near Venezuela, fearing a conflict, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Sunday, adding he intended to speak with US counterpart Donald Trump about it.

Here’s how to make Argentina grow again: The country needs more from the US than a $20bn swap agreement. Laurence Kotlikoff

Milei (finally) divides to conquer: In his first two years in office, Milei united rather than divided the opposition. His all-out attack on “the caste” earned him many enemies and virtually no friends. But everyone likes a winner. Marcelo J. García

Milei puts military back in charge of defence after 42 years of civilian rule: BAT reports President Javier Milei names Lieutenant General Carlos Presti, current head of the Army, as Argentina’s new defence minister; Opposition criticises move as "step backwareds"; Since December 1983, when Raúl Alfonsín began his Presidency following the end of military dictatorship, all post-holders have been civilians.

The ambiguities of the 'Generation Z' movement in Mexico: Driven by a billionaire at odds with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum's government, a movement calling itself 'Generation Z' brought tens of thousands of people together for a protest against insecurity and corruption on November 15 in Mexico City, ending in violent clashes with the police. Le Monde

Canada, India renew talks for comprehensive trade deal: G+M reports Ottawa suspended talks after going public with RCMP allegations that the Indian government was behind the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar.

No more feminist foreign policy, Carney says: G+M reports Prime Minister Carney, who made the comments at the G20 summit in Johannesburg, has placed less emphasis on feminist policies than the Trudeau government.

Export-Import Bank to spend $100bn to achieve US energy dominance: FT reports new chief floats deals in Egypt, Pakistan, and Europe as the agency backs away from renewables under Donald Trump.

Epstein is a failure of the 21st-century elites: What the story is really about is unloved girls, let down by parents and ‘the people who run things.’ Peggy Noonan

Epstein, Trump, and the era of elite impunity: Democrats don’t need to pick and choose among the administration’s many sins. They all tell the same grim story. TNR

Is Trump starting to correct his course? He’s made wise moves on the Epstein files and tariffs. What’s next? Healthcare. Karl Rove

Trump shows his power, and Greene reveals his weakness: As the president forced a onetime loyalist from Congress, her defiant departure signaled a coming debate over Republican identity in a post-Trump era. NYT

What Trump’s Mamdani praise — and MTG’s ouster — says about MAGA’s future: A whirlwind Friday is the freshest reminder that the MAGA movement has always been defined more by id than ideology. Politico

Everyone is talking about the ‘affordability crisis.’ It can’t be solved. President Trump and New York Mayor-elect Mamdani both campaigned on affordability, but the issue is amorphous and poorly defined. Greg Ip

Trump’s love-in with NYC mayor-elect has America asking ‘is Mamdani a Republican?’ The president and the democratic socialist were remarkably cordial in the White House. Was it a ploy to rock Mamdani’s standing among progressives? Katy Balls

Trump's odd day: Enthralled by Socialist Zohran Mamdani and abandoned by MAGA lawmaker Marjorie Taylor Greene: The US president lavished praise on New York City's mayor-elect during a White House visit on Friday. Almost simultaneously, one of his most fervent allies announced her resignation from the House of Representatives, formalizing her break with the Republican leader. Le Monde

The surprising issue driving a wedge between Trump and his MAGA base: President Donald Trump’s attempt to block states from regulating AI sparked pushback from Republicans concerned the tech will displace workers and harm kids. WP

Trump’s big problem is not Epstein — it’s the AI bubble: The US economy, and by extension the president’s fortunes, are becoming reliant on one new technology. What happens when the boom busts? Katy Balls

Why Republicans are fighting about the Nazis: Tensions over right-wing antisemitism have burst to the forefront of Republican politics, and show signs of becoming a fierce point of contention in the midterms and beyond. NYT

The MAGA world, divided over Trump's politics and eaten away by neo-Nazi movement: The Epstein case, tech billionaires, Venezuela, Israel: The movement that brought Donald Trump back to the White House now finds itself splintered on numerous fronts. An openly antisemitic, racist, and misogynistic current is gaining ground around Nick Fuentes. Le Monde

The president is losing control of himself: Donald Trump’s outbursts on social media this week were different than usual. Tom Nichols

Did Trump lead the GOP into a gerrymander trap? Texas’ redistrict prompts retaliation from California—and may be undone by a federal court ruling. Matthew Continetti

Congress Turns Chaotic as Lawmakers Target Each Other: WSJ reports House leaders want to change the rules to rein in censure votes after week of fighting.

In the House, censures proliferate, reflecting a poisonous climate: NYT reports formal reprimands, once rare, dominated the chamber’s agenda this week, prompting lawmakers in both parties to call for changes to the way the House handles such actions.

Patel under scrutiny for use of SWAT teams to protect his girlfriend: NYT reports the FBI's director’s travel on government jets has contributed to growing questions inside the administration about whether he is using taxpayer-funded resources inappropriately.

The case of a felon who paid lobbyists nearly $1 million to seek a Trump pardon: WSJ reports nursing home magnate Joseph Schwartz was sentenced in April to three years for defrauding the government of $38 million. Seven months later, Trump pardoned him, but the White House denies a lobbying tie.

Comey prosecution on the ropes after series of missteps: WSJ reports a rushed process and departure from protocol have hurt the case, former prosecutors say.

It’s called the ‘six-year itch.’ Democrats hope it favors them for the Senate. The sixth year of a presidency typically produces brutal results for his party in Senate races, but everything about Trump is unconventional. WP

How Rubio’s political fate is entangled with Maduro’s: The US move against Venezuela’s dictator is resonating in Florida, home to a key political constituency of the Secretary of State. Politico

AOC built her own political machine. Now she’s deciding her next move. Seven years after Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leapt onto the national stage as an outsider, she’s learned an inside game and is considering a run for Senate or president. WP

‘The History of the Peloponnesian War’ review: Warrior and witness: The Athenian patrician Thucydides began writing the history of his city’s conflict with Sparta even as the war was beginning. WSJ

The Thucydides Trap is coming for America Lydia Polgreen

Best books of 2025: From our own stable: From political history to football fever, books by FT journalists and editors. FT

Best books of 2025: Politics: Gideon Rachman selects his must-read titles. FT

The owner of the Daily Mail agreed to buy the Telegraph, a rival British newspaper, for £500m ($654m). 

Eli Lilly becomes first pharma group to join $1tn club: FT reports shares have soared almost 40% this year over strong demand for weight-loss and diabetes drugs.

Moderna is most shorted stock in S&P 500 as Americans skip jabs: FT reports maker of COVID-19 shots has slumped since pandemic as people turn against vaccines.

Taco Bell knows exactly what you want to eat at 2 am: Liz Matthews is considered the GOAT of new product ideas, testing hundreds to develop viral hits like Doritos Locos Tacos and Baja Blast. WSJ

Korean noodle makers ride K-pop boom to grow global share: Nongshim, Samyang build more factories and expand into new markets. Nikkei

‘The next China is China’: Estée Lauder chief doubles down in the east: Stéphane de La Faverie remains committed to country at centre of beauty group’s recent troubles. FT

BHP Group has made a fresh takeover approach to Anglo American Plc in a move to disrupt the London-listed miner’s combination with Canada’s Teck Resources Ltd., the latest twist in a wave of consolidation sweeping the industry.

AI investors want more making it and less faking it: The artificial-intelligence industry took Silicon Valley’s hustle mentality to an extreme—and investors are catching on. WSJ

Insurers retreat from AI cover as risk of multibillion-dollar claims mounts: AIG, Great American, and WR Berkley seek permission to limit liability from AI agents and chatbots. FT

Behind the AI bubble, another tech revolution could be brewing: Today’s eye-popping valuations are based on the assumption that LLMs are the only game in town. Gillian Tett

What OpenAI did when ChatGPT users lost touch with reality: In tweaking its chatbot to appeal to more people, OpenAI made it riskier for some of them. Now the company has made its chatbot safer. Will that undermine its quest for growth? NYT

How the internet rewired work—and what that tells us about AI’s likely impact: Pundits in the late 1990s offered all sorts of predictions about how the internet would affect jobs. For the most part, they were way off. WSJ

Don’t expect AI to disrupt Google’s monopoly on search: A judge said artificial intelligence would upend Google’s dominance, but two new books argue that monopolies rarely fix themselves. Bloomberg

Inside the world of AI song-making: Big hits and a 7-figure deal: At least 10 songs made with music-generating technology have charted recently. WSJ

Why are so many pop stars trying to win over country fans? Ask Shaboozey. For years, the country music star struggled to stake a claim to the version of himself that now seems inevitable. NYT

20 years of Spotify — who’s winning, losing, and making money? The streaming giant has revolutionised music and created a new generation of stars. But why are British artists struggling? We talk to its Swedish founder Daniel Ek and industry insiders. The Times

Robert Propst invented the cubicle. But don’t blame him if you hate it. The much-derided office workstation originally was designed to accomplish the opposite of what it became. WSJ

The Beatles Anthology — and why the band are in legacy overdrive: Their ‘end’ was declared long ago — so why are the Fab Four back with a new compilation album and documentary? FT

‘Wings’ review: Paul McCartney’s wandering star: For McCartney, post-Beatles life didn’t mean a retreat from the business of rock ’n’ roll. With a new band, he got on the bus. WSJ

Friendology: The science of friendship: Why do we like the people we like? Suzanne Degges-White

Real Madrid plots ownership shake-up to stay ahead of Premier League rivals: Member-owned Spanish club could bring in external investors as some fans voice opposition to idea of a stake sale. FT

Real Madrid presented plans to sell a 5% stake as part of a long-standing strategy to welcome external investors.

Lando Norris disqualified as Max Verstappen win blows title race wide open: The Times reports McLaren blunder causes Norris and Oscar Piastri to fail post-race car checks – with skid plank infringement of only 0.12mm for Norris — as Verstappen moves to within 24 points of lead.

Formula 1: Verstappen wins Las Vegas Grand Prix as McLarens are disqualified: Le Monde reports a fifth straight Formula 1 title is now within Max Verstappen's grasp after the disqualifications of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, which cut his deficit to Norris to just 24 points with two races left.

Ukraine-born Aonishiki wins sumo tournament, 1st from war-torn country: Nikkei reports the wrestler expected to receive promotion to ozeki, the 2nd-highest rank.

Imperious Shiffrin swoops to 103rd win at Gurgl: AFP reports American skier Mikaela Shiffrin picked up a record-extending 103rd World Cup victory when she posted the quickest time in both runs of the women's slalom at Gurgl on Sunday.

The Anglo-Australian drift: Two increasingly different countries are contesting the Ashes. Janan Ganesh

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly. 

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal 

Send me A11 by email.