ITK Daily | December 18
Suez, WWII airfield, Donald Trump, BYD, Larry David, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.
ITK Daily is geopolitical business intelligence for communications pros.
Happy Monday.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily.
To be ITK, know this:
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
A new Suez crisis threatens the world economy: Economist reports global shipping firms are suspending voyages in the Red Sea.
+ The Egyptian Suez Canal Authority said it was “closely following” events in the Red Sea. Over the weekend American and British destroyers downed more than a dozen drones over the sea, apparently launched by the Houthis.
NYT: US to push Israel to scale back war
French foreign minister calls for Gaza truce in visit to Israel: Le Monde reports Catherine Colonna, on a diplomatic tour, called for an 'immediate and durable' truce in Gaza, with a view to a lasting ceasefire. Meanwhile, her Israeli counterpart Eli Cohen stated that France could play a 'significant role' in de-escalating tensions with Lebanon.
+ Some of Israel’s allies stepped up their calls for peace in Gaza. The British and German foreign ministers together urged a “sustainable ceasefire” and said that Israel had killed “too many civilians.”
Israel’s current large-scale operation is the last one in Gaza: Economist reports generals prepare for a lower-intensity campaign against Hamas.
Israel plans ‘new ground war against Hezbollah’: The Times reports with Gaza in ruins, the Israel Defence Forces are preparing to take the fight into Lebanon.
'Africa Corps': Russia's Sahel presence rebranded: Le Monde reports Moscow is trying to recalibrate its policy toward Africa and erase memories of the Wagner Group label.
President Vladimir Putin warned of “problems” with Finland, accusing the West of having “dragged” Russia’s Nordic neighbor into NATO.
Ukraine’s army is struggling to find good recruits: Economist reports Russia is suffering immense casualties—but it has the edge in manpower.
Ukraine’s economic recovery depends on extra allied aid, warns IMF chief: FT reports Kristalina Georgieva urges US and EU to seal deals that would unlock tens of billions of dollars in funding.
Business charm offensive ‘masks Labour’s lack of experience’: The Times reports most of the party’s top 100 prospective MPs have a public or non-profit sector background.
Cardinal found guilty of embezzlement in Vatican ‘trial of the century’ WP
Bloomberg: Singapore exports swing to growth first time in 14 months
Japan and ASEAN to craft 'master plan' for next-generation cars: Nikkei reports the summit shores up cooperation as tech creates new opportunities and rivals.
Bloomberg: Japan, ASEAN vow to cooperate on security amid China spats
Nikkei: US weighs returning smaller permanent fighter force to Okinawa
US to reclaim WWII airfield in Pacific, clearing jungle by summer: Nikkei reports the US military will make "significant progress" toward reclaiming a World War II-era airfield on the Pacific island of Tinian in the upcoming months, an air force general said, part of an initiative to disperse aircraft across the Indo-Pacific region as China's missile threat continues to grow.
Bloomberg: North Korea fires suspected ICBM after US holds nuke talks
AFP: Hong Kong starts trial of pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai
Witness against Hong Kong media mogul was mistreated, Post examination finds: WP reports a year-long Post examination raises questions about whether former democracy activist Andy Li’s testimony in a high-profile trial opening Monday against billionaire Jimmy Lai will be voluntary and reliable.
FT: Chileans reject second attempt to rewrite constitution
AFP: Chile voters reject conservative constitution to replace dictatorship-era text
Chilean voters reject new constitution for the second time: Le Monde reports voters rejected a proposed conservative constitution to replace the country's Pinochet-era charter on Sunday after having rejected a progressive draft in September 2022.
Guyana rekindles the world's thirst for oil: Le Monde reports between 2020 and 2023, Guyanese oil production increased fivefold. The Latin American country with a population of 800,000 currently ranks 31st among oil-producing nations but could move up to 18th place by 2027.
Canada to announce 2035 all-EV sales mandate, reports say: Bloomberg reports the UK introduced an EV sales mandate with similar timelines.
US concern over Mexico attracting Chinese electric vehicle factories: FT reports three of China’s biggest EV manufacturers in talks to find sites for plants in Latin American country.
*** ITK Live ***
ITK WAS | School + Salon Dinner
Executive education and global economic training to start the new year at the ITK WAS | School + Salon Dinner.
Downtown Washington, DC
January 11, 2024
Starting at 1:30 pm ET
This event will explore the interconnected global business environment, focusing on business issues at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.
ITK WAS will feature three 45-minute lectures and a salon dinner.
Limited to 12 sports, participants will gain improved geopolitical intelligence, communications confidence, and increased situational awareness.
For details and tickets, click here.
*** Politics + Elections ***
Senate negotiators fail to reach agreement on border framework: WSJ reports some lawmakers have expressed skepticism of a vote soon due to complexity of immigration law.
Trump, quoting Putin, declares indictments ‘politically motivated persecution’: NYT reports the former president cited comments by the Russian leader to argue the 91 felony charges he is facing undermine the United States’ claim to be the world leader on democracy.
Trump quotes Putin condemning American democracy, praises autocrat Orban: WP reports Trump also called Jan. 6 defendants ‘hostages’ and again demonized immigrants as ‘poisoning the blood of our country’
Trump’s lead widens over GOP field: A new Fox News poll finds Donald Trump leading the Republican presidential race nationally with 69%, followed by Ron DeSantis at 13%, Nikki Haley at 10%, Vivek Ramaswamy at 7%, and Chris Christie at 3%.
Trump holds big leads: New polls from CBS News/YouGov:
+ Iowa: Trump 58%, DeSantis 22%, Haley 13%, Ramaswamy 4%, Christie 3%.
+ New Hampshire: Trump 44%, Haley 29%, DeSantis 11%, Christie 10%, Ramaswamy 5%.
Trump unveils new slogan: NYT reports: At the rally on Saturday, a relatively new slogan for his campaign — ‘Better Off With Trump’ — was displayed on a screen over Trump’s head as he stood onstage.
Why a Trump conviction might not save Biden’s reelection: Politico reports pollsters have already started to explore what effect, if any, a criminal conviction before the election would have on Trump’s support.
Jeff Roe, top strategist for star-crossed DeSantis super PAC, resigns: NYT reports Roe, who helped lead Never Back Down, the super PAC behind the Florida governor’s presidential campaign, resigned Saturday, the latest shake-up in the group.
Ron DeSantis wanted to change the way campaigns were funded. Then the fights started. With just weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses, the GOP candidate’s experiment is now in tatters. WP
Biden’s 2024 problem: Voters say his policies hurt them: A recent Wall Street Journal poll finds Americans feel far more positive about former President Donald Trump’s record than they do about President Biden’s.
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
FT: Ryanair boss O’Leary on course for €100mn bonus
Bloomberg: Apple’s 2024 will be about moving beyond the iPhone
How science fiction helped write AI’s first rule book: Like Isaac Asimov before us, we have to work out how to benefit from the new technology while staying safe. Vera Jourova
Fake news sites have ballooned by 1,000% since May. It’s going to get worse. Artificial intelligence is automating the creation of fake news, spurring an explosion of websites that can disseminate false information about wars and elections. WP
AI is ravenous for energy. Can it be satisfied? The revolution in artificial intelligence may soon require more electricity than all electric vehicles combined. Christopher Mims
BYD targets Japan as gateway for global EV exports: Nikkei reports the Chinese EV leader reportedly plans to sell 30,000 units in Japan in 2025.
Mary Barra spent a decade transforming GM. It hasn’t been enough. The CEO pushed GM hard into electric and driverless cars. The finish line keeps moving farther away. WSJ
*** Culture ***
Bloomberg: New York’s Met museum to return looted antiquities to Cambodia
French chefs are determined to put stinky cheeses on the menu: Le Monde reports Maroilles, Camembert, and Munster are just some of the French cheeses that inspire revulsion in people with a sensitive palate. But increasingly strong cheeses are being used by chefs in risky and interesting dishes.
So long, Larry — why we’ll miss Curb, in all its taboo-breaking glory: As Larry David announces the end of his sitcom, Curb Your Enthusiasm, TV insiders tell Ben Dowell how it changed comedy. The Times
*** Sport ***
Detroit Lions: 10-4.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
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