ITK Daily | December 19
Denmark, GOP nomination, Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen, IKEA, Detroit Pistons, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.
ITK Daily is geopolitical business intelligence for communications pros.
Happy Tuesday.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily.
To be ITK, know this:
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
Five elections in 2024 that will shape the global order: Could Donald Trump make a comeback? Will anyone in Russia challenge Vladimir Putin? AFP
Israel’s opposition leader has a message for Democrats. They may not like it. Politico reports that former Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid is trying to shore up support for Israel on the American center-left. But the wartime politics of both countries isn’t making it easy.
Biden’s support of Israel could come at a cost to US foreign policy: WP reports America’s partners and allies are increasingly frustrated that the United States isn’t using enough leverage to protect Palestinian lives.
+ More than 115 hostages are still being held in Gaza.
The new player in the secret world of hostage exchanges: WSJ reports Turkey is at the center of a group of Middle East power brokers that are amassing diplomatic clout by hosting prisoner swaps, peace talks and backchannel negotiations.
Bloomberg: Hamas's cheap, makeshift drones are outsmarting Israel's high-tech military
Pentagon Eyes microwave weapons to tackle drone threat: WSJ reports frying swarms of unmanned aircraft may be more economical than shooting them down with missiles, but the technology is still evolving.
Bloomberg: Cargo ships forced on a long, slow detour to avoid Red Sea
Bloomberg: Houthi attacks start shutting down Red Sea merchant shipping
CNBC: Shipping giant Maersk begins rerouting ships due to Red Sea turmoil
BP to pause Red Sea shipping transits over security concerns: DW reports Yemen's Houthi rebels have been targeting vessels in the region.
Cruise missile strikes Norway-flagged tanker off Yemen: DW reports the US military says the missile was launched from a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen.
Ukraine facing lack of Western ammunition as tensions grow in Kyiv: The Times reports the Ukrainian president’s annual press conference will be overshadowed by his falling popularity ratings and declining international support for the war
WP: Listening devices found in office of Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny
WP: Moscow glows triumphant as front freezes and Western aid for Ukraine stalls
What if Putin wins? US allies fear defeat as Ukraine aid stalls: Bloomberg reports with critical aid for Kyiv snarled up by political infighting on both sides of the Atlantic, European officials are starting to think through the consequences of a victory for Russia.
+ Russia does not intend to fight with Europe and NATO and is prepared to negotiate with the West on Ukraine based on Moscow’s own interests, Russian President Vladimir Putin said.
+ The US will run out of funding for Ukraine this month if Congress does not pass President Joe Biden’s emergency supplemental spending request.
+ More than $110 billion in aid is mired in political disputes in US and Europe.
AFP: France, UK to support Ukraine 'for as long as it takes': Cameron
Russia tried to weaken Democrats ahead of 2022 midterm vote, US spy agencies say: WSJ reports the Kremlin’s operations likely sought to erode support for Ukraine, according to a new report.
Germany to station troops in Lithuania: DW reports German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has signed a deal to permanently station Bundeswehr soldiers in Lithuania.
Bloomberg: Denmark opens military bases to US troops under new defense deal
FT: Denmark follows Sweden and Finland in signing US defence deal
AFP: US announces multinational force to secure Red Sea shipping against Houthi attacks
The Times: Britain joins US taskforce as Houthis attack more ships in Red Sea
European leaders will reconvene for a special summit in Brussels on February 1 to discuss new financial aid to Ukraine, European Council President Charles Michel announced Monday.
The EU will “likely” or “very likely” miss the majority of its 2030 green objectives, according to a new report. In the document, the EU’s environmental agency says the EU will “very likely” overshoot its primary energy consumption targets, undershoot its renewable energy targets, and fail to double the use of recycled material.
Bloomberg: Iceland rocked by volcanic eruption
Iceland volcano erupts after weeks of warnings and an entire town’s evacuation: WP reports magma breached the surface just north of the town of Grindavik, Iceland’s meteorological office said.
UK votes: The UK election will happen some time next year, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said Monday.
Kim Jong Un warns US after North Korea ICBM test: DW reports Kim Jong Un says he will accelerate the country's nuclear buildup, warning of an "overwhelming counteraction" if provoked by the United States. North Korea's latest missile had a potential range that could cover the US.
Calls in US for NATO-like alliance in Indo-Pacific: There is little likelihood that Indo-Pacific nations will come together in a regional version of NATO, experts say. DW
US aircraft carrier calls at Singapore as China, Philippines spar: Nikkei reports the nuclear-powered USS Carl Vinson projects might amid South China Sea dispute.
Nikkei: Chinese quake death toll rises to 126, says state media
AFP: More than 100 killed in northwest China earthquake
Survivors face subzero temperatures after quake kills over 120 in China: NYT reports the 5.9-magnitude earthquake struck Gansu Province around midnight. People who had fled their homes huddled in the cold, building fires to keep warm.
+ There are 93 Canadian citizens detained or incarcerated in China.
Nikkei: Nippon Steel deal draws immediate heat from American lawmakers
+ Sen. John Fetterman vows to block 'outrageous' acquisition of US Steel
A free-world champion to rival China: Nippon chief’s ambitions for US Steel deal: WSJ reports Nippon Steel President Eiji Hashimoto says the acquisition would boost economic security, but U.S. politicians and workers object.
Globe + Mail: Global Affairs offers ‘deepest regrets’ to ‘Inuit and Indigenous communities’ over AI-generated image
Bloomberg: Canadian dollar surges to highest since August as inflation stays elevated
Miami Herald: US intelligence finds Cuba tried to influence Florida races during 2022 elections
America’s cultural supremacy and geopolitical weakness Janan Ganesh
*** ITK Live ***
ITK WAS | School + Salon Dinner
Executive education and global economic training to start the new year at the ITK WAS | School + Salon Dinner.
Downtown Washington, DC
January 11, 2024
Starting at 1:30 pm ET
This event will explore the interconnected global business environment, focusing on business issues at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.
ITK WAS will feature three 45-minute lectures and a salon dinner.
Limited to 12 sports, participants will gain improved geopolitical intelligence, communications confidence, and increased situational awareness.
For details and tickets, click here.
*** Politics + Elections ***
Poll finds wide disapproval of Biden on Gaza, and little room to shift gears: NYT reports opinion is split between those wanting the war to end and those pressing for a definitive Israeli victory, and the divide is starkest among older and younger generations.
Even though he trails among registered voters, President Biden actually leads Donald Trump in a new New York Times/Siena poll of the 2024 likely electorate, 47% to 45%.
+ Holiday spending to be up big even as approval of Biden hits new low, CNBC economic survey shows
Bloomberg: Nikki Haley gets $70 million from Koch Group to aim for second place
WP: Trump team data suggests clinching GOP nomination by March
Reuters: Trump would install loyalists to reshape US foreign policy on China, NATO, and Ukraine
+ Andrea Mitchell celebrated 15 years as an MSNBC anchor and 45 years with NBC.
Bloomberg: US housing starts unexpectedly rise to a six-month high
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Adobe announced it was nixing its plans to buy up competitor Figma on Monday, in a big win for antitrust officials in the EU and UK.
Bloomberg: Apple races to tweak software ahead of looming US watch ban
CNBC: Google to pay $700 million to US consumers, states in Play store settlement
WP: 102 million people eligible for payment in Google’s settlement over app store practices
IBM agreed to buy an enterprise division of Software AG, a German tech company owned by the investment firm Silver Lake, for $2.3 billion.
FT: Accenture CEO says most companies are not ready for AI rollout
Goldman Sachs has hired Jennifer Zuccarelli, a former top communications executive at JPMorgan Chase and the Treasury Department, as its head of media relations.
Farfetch, the embattled luxury e-commerce platform, will sell itself to Coupang for $500 million.
Nio, a Chinese electric car maker, secured a $2.2 billion investment from an Abu Dhabi firm.
Honda becomes first Japan company to produce passenger EVs in Thailand: Nikkei reports the SUV to hit the local market in early 2024 as competition with Chinese rivals heats up
Unilever dumps the ‘great smell of Brut’: The Times reports consumer goods giant sells historic brands such as Brylcreem, Timotei, and Brut to US private equity firm Yellow Wood Partners.
AFP: French retailer Decathlon still selling in Russia despite official pullout over Ukraine, report says
The office market had it hard in 2023. Next year looks worse. WSJ reports office building owners are losing hope that occupancy rates will rebound soon.
FT Person of the Year: Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen of Novo Nordisk FT
*** Sport ***
Bloomberg: Washington Spirit owner acquires London women’s football club
+ London City Lionesses plays in England’s second division
+ Michele Kang is building a women football multi-club strategy
Inside the Croydon factory behind Nike’s ‘super shoes’ revolution: Matt Lawton visits Zotefoams, whose shoe technology has helped the world’s elite athletes push the boundaries of what is now possible in long-distance running. The Times
In football’s epicenter, a shifting landscape: A shrinking pee-wee league. Worried football moms. Even under West Texas’s Friday night lights, the sport is losing some of its glow. WP
Is this the worst team in NBA history? WSJ reports the Detroit Pistons have a clutch of highly drafted young players, a $78 million coach—and a 24-game losing streak that is fast approaching the league record.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
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