Caracal Global Daily | February 2

Caracal Global Daily

Caracal Global Daily is a human-curated global intelligence briefing that connects geopolitical developments, economic trends, and strategic business insights.

February 2, 2026

Detroit, MI

*** Globalization + Statecraft *** 

In an age of superpowers, geography is still destiny: The world is a battleground again. The post–Cold War moment of great-power peace and borderless globalization has ended. Fracture, rivalry, and disorder are defining themes of our age. Hal Brands

US attack would plunge region into war, warns Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei: The Times reports the 86-year-old leader said Tehran would ‘deliver a strong punch to anyone who attacks and harasses it’ after Trump sent a navy armada to the region.

Donald Trump says Iran negotiating ‘seriously’ on nuclear weapons: FT reports US president demands Tehran accept ‘no nuclear weapons’ as regional allies try to de-escalate tensions.

The violence in Iran could lead to civil war: As America amasses an armada, the regime’s response to recent protests is radicalising Iranians. Economist

Israel to end Doctors Without Borders work in Gaza: Le Monde reports Israel said Sunday it would end the work of Doctors Without Borders in Gaza after it failed to provide a list of its Palestinian staff.

Why is taking the rest of the Donetsk region so important to Putin? Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the question “the one remaining item” in Abu Dhabi peace talks. Russia disputed that. NYT

+ SpaceX has stopped the “unauthorised use” of its satellite network, Starlink, by Russia’s armed forces. 

Europe’s future depends on whether it can embrace hard power, says Germany’s Merz: The chancellor also joined other European leaders in condemning US President Donald Trump’s dismissal of NATO sacrifices in Afghanistan. Politico

Frederik X, a monarch embraced by Greenlanders: Deeply attached to Greenland – where he once undertook a four-month expedition under extreme conditions – the king of Denmark is set to visit the island this month. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has not abandoned his ambition to claim it as American territory. Le Monde

Why the US needs Diego Garcia: Trump can block the UK deal to hand the Chagos Islands to a friend of China. WSJ-Editorial

The new bipolar world of AI: Only the US and China are ‘sovereign’ in that they can produce and maintain control of frontier systems. Tom Tugendhat + Christopher Ahlberg

China’s genius plan to win the AI race is already paying off: A network of ultra-competitive high-school talent streams has been turning out the leading lights of science and tech. FT

Xi Jinping calls for China’s renminbi to attain global reserve currency status: FT reports latest commentary details ambitions for ‘powerful currency’ to play a greater role in trade and forex.

China has launched a huge free-trade experiment: Will reforms on a big southern island kick-start changes elsewhere? Economist

China’s Middle East moment is stalling out: Beijing’s rise as a regional power broker at the US’s expense has lost momentum amid its reluctance to take on a sustained political or security role. Bloomberg

‘Spy Sheikh’ bought secret stake in Trump company: $500 million investment for 49% of World Liberty came months before UAE won access to tightly guarded American AI chips. WSJ

Abu Dhabi royal bought big stake in Trump family crypto venture: FT reports investors backed by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan put half a billion dollars into World Liberty Financial.

The secret Egyptian air base behind Sudan’s drone war: The covert base offers new evidence of how the Sudanese conflict is morphing into a theater for high-tech warfare, driven by foreign interests. NYT

Over 300 people thought missing in Mediterranean as shipwrecks continue: Le Monde reports in mid-January, eight vessels that had departed Tunisia were reported in distress. As many as 380 people were on board these boats, according to one radio station. All are now considered missing.

Carney’s Davos speech has a big hole in it Adrian Wooldridge

How Canada should operate in a TACO world Jaime Watt

Has America hit “peak tariff”? Uncle Sam’s take may go downhill from here. Economist

Bitcoin price slides to lowest level since 2025 tariff shock: FT reports drop comes after gold and other precious metals sold off sharply.

The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline: America’s population wasn’t expected to start falling until 2081. Trump’s immigration crackdown means it could happen as soon as this year. Bloomberg

*** US Politics + Elections *** 

House’s Bid to End Partial Shutdown Gets Tougher: WSJ reports Democrats pushing for immigration-enforcement changes say they won’t help GOP pass funding measures.

House speaker ‘confident’ partial shutdown will end by Tuesday: WP reports Speaker Mike Johnson says he’s prepared to pass funding measures, already approved by the Senate, with the sole support of House Republicans.

Judge denies effort to bring temporary halt to ICE operation in Minnesota: MST reports the order comes after the matter was argued in federal court.

Judge ordered 5-year-old released, but data shows ICE has been detaining more kids: WP reports that as family detentions spike, the Trump administration is increasingly ensnaring the youngest and most vulnerable, lawyers and advocates say.

Target’s new CEO faces hometown crisis as he begins turnaround effort: Michael Fiddelke takes the top job at the struggling retailer amid continued unrest in the Twin Cities. A new boss also steps in at Walmart, where things are quieter. NYT

Americans have drawn a red line in Minnesota: The Trump administration’s partial retreat will not mend the damage to trust and lives. FT-Editorial

Canadian company cancels sale of Virginia warehouse to ICE: NYT reports Jim Pattison Developments said the sale of an industrial building, which was planned to become an Immigration and Customs Enforcement processing facility, would not go forward.

WSJ: President’s lawsuit against IRS puts him on both sides of the same case

WP: Trump wants to build a 250-foot-tall arch, dwarfing the Lincoln Memorial

WSJ: Trump says Kennedy Center will close for two years for renovations

Trump plans to close Kennedy Center for about two years in July for construction: WP reports his proposal comes amid a series of cancellations and internal upheaval since he took over the storied institution nearly a year ago.

The Hill: Trump questions if GOP can overcome voters’ ‘psychological’ midterms hurdle 

Toronto Star: Texas stunner: Democrat Taylor Rehmet flips Republican state Senate district Trump won by 17 points

Texas election upset is a ‘wake-up call’ for future elections, Republican says: WSJ reports a state-level Democratic win in a region that had voted decisively for President Trump threatens to diminish Republicans’ hopes for the midterm elections.

Democratic upset in deep red Texas district rattles Republicans: NYT reports a Democrat won a state legislative special election in a district that President Trump carried by 17 percentage points, unnerving Republicans in Texas and beyond.

A Texas election jolt to the GOP: Stephen Miller’s mass deportation strategy is backfiring at the polls. WSJ-Editorial

Lame duck no more? Trump stockpiles hundreds of millions ahead of midterms. Politico reports that all together, a web of campaign accounts, some of which he controls directly and others under the care of close allies, within the president’s orbit have $375 million in their coffers.

RNC enters 2026 with nearly $100 million edge on DNC: NYT reports Democrats have struggled to raise money, as is often the case for the party out of power, but the depth of their financial hole against the Republican National Committee is noteworthy.

NH-SEN: Trump endorsed former Sen. John E. Sununu (R-NH) over former Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) in the Republican primary for the New Hampshire US Senate seat. 

Michigan’s 3-car pileup of a primary has Senate Democrats worried: The race is a crucial test for what the next generation of Democrats will look like — and whether they can prevail in a must-win race for their Senate chances. Politico

Democrats to shake up primary map, as 12 states vie to be among the first: The party’s national committee plans to select up to five states to hold the first nominating contests for its 2028 presidential nominee. WP

The blue state population bust: WSJ-Editoral writes Democratic-run states could lose at least 10 House seats after 2030 based on migration trends. 

For the first time in 50 years, college grads are losing their edge: WP reports Historically, US workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher have enjoyed better employment outcomes. That’s starting to shift, labor data shows.

Is the personal political? Five takeaways from Gavin Newsom’s new book: His introspective memoir tries to challenge the conventional wisdom about his upbringing, explores his marriages, and airs a little dirty laundry — but says relatively little about politics. NYT

‘Melania’ promises to take us behind the scenes. There’s nothing to see. Monica Hesse reports that the new documentary about the enigmatic first lady mostly celebrates her zealous dedication to her external presentation.

‘Melania’ arrives with strong box office showing for a documentary: NYT reports Amazon backed up the Brink’s trucks for the vanity film, resulting in weekend ticket sales of about $7 million in North America, enough for third place.

*** Distribution + Innovation *** 

7 reasons teens say no to AI: Some young people only turn to artificial-intelligence chatbots as a last resort, citing concerns about relationships, creativity, the environment, and more. Julie Jargon

How big a threat is AI to entry-level jobs? And what should companies do in response? Economist

An AI clone and a publicly traded company: The irresistible rise of TikToker Khaby Lame: The Senegalese-Italian influencer has sold his company for nearly $1 billion in a deal that includes the creation of a digital twin powered by artificial intelligence. Le Monde

Inside Moltbook: The social network where AI agents talk to each other: An online experiment has Elon Musk believing that we are reaching the ‘singularity’. Is that really true? FT

The AI boom is coming for Apple’s profit margins: WSJ reports parts for iPhones will cost more, owing to surging demand from AI companies.

On LinkedIn, everyone’s an AI detective now: As AI-generated writing spreads across the platform, users are scrutinizing em dashes, emojis, and repetitive phrasing to call out inauthenticity. Bloomberg

Ford held talks with China’s Xiaomi over EV partnership: FT reports deal would open US market to Chinese carmakers.

+ @mtruby: Our statement: “This story is completely false. There is no truth to it.”

Disney board is close to picking parks chief D’Amaro as next CEO: Bloomberg reports the board of Walt Disney Co. is aligning on promoting theme-park division chairman Josh D’Amaro to the role of chief executive officer and will vote on naming a new leader next week, according to people familiar with the matter.

Super Bowl ad slots hit record prices as brands return to TV marketing: FT reports broadcaster NBC says some brands are paying more than $10mn for a 30-second slot.

*** Culture *** 

The truth about what men and women really desire: Leonardo DiCaprio with his younger girlfriend, Lauren Sánchez Bezos with her rich man. Is this the way of human desire? No, Paul Eastwick, a researcher into love, tells Helen Rumbelow. The Times

AFP: Venice kicks off 15 days of Carnival festivities

*** Sport *** 

WSJ: Carlos Alcaraz Takes Down Novak Djokovic to Win the Australian Open

G+M: Carlos Alcaraz becomes youngest man to complete a career Grand Slam

CBS: Trump announces IndyCar race will come to DC streets for America's 250th

Trump, IndyCar plan Freedom 250 race around National Mall, but it’s going to be tough lift: Athletic reports the race, officially named the Freedom 250 Grand Prix of Washington, DC, is scheduled for Aug. 23 and will be part of the America 250 celebrations later this year to mark the 250th anniversary of the founding of the US on July 4, 1776. There has never been a professional motorsports race at the National Mall.

+ It’s one thing to announce a street race, but it’s another thing to pull it off. Jeff Gluck, senior motorsports writer for The Athletic, said, “This would be one of the most ambitious announcements in American motorsports history, given the short timeframe, but perhaps the executive order will cut through the typical red tape.”

WP: LeBron James makes record 22nd All-Star Game — this time as a reserve

WP: ESPN closes deal for NFL Network following regulatory approval

Personal training for 11-year-olds? It’s happening. NYT reports that as youth sports become increasingly competitive, more preteen athletes are working with private coaches to level up.

Pope says Winter Olympics 'rekindle hope' for world peace: AFP reports Pope Leo XIV said Sunday that the Winter Olympics -- starting in less than a week's time in northern Italy -- were an opportunity to "rekindle hope for a world at peace."

Sports betting is blurring the lines between gaming, gambling, and investing: Legalization unleashed explosive growth in US sports betting. In Everybody Loses, Danny Funt argues that it’s made watching (and playing) worse. Bloomberg


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly. 

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal