Caracal Global Daily
Caracal Global Daily is a human-curated global intelligence briefing that connects geopolitical developments, economic trends, and strategic business insights.
February 3, 2026
Detroit, MI
*** Ross Rant ***
The business case for a Chief Geopolitics Officer
When JPMorgan Chase launched its Center for Geopolitics in May 2025, naming Derek Chollet, a counselor to former Secretary of State Antony Blinken and chief of staff to former Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, to lead it, CEO Jamie Dimon was blunt: "Our greatest risk is geopolitical risk." The unit's advisory board reads like a national security all-star roster: former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, and former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mark Milley.
This move wasn't corporate theater. It was recognition of a fundamental shift in global business.
Citigroup followed suit, bringing on Robert Lighthizer, Trump's former trade representative. McKinsey and Russell Reynolds report surging demand among Fortune 500 companies for executives with geopolitical expertise, often recruited from military, intelligence, and government backgrounds. These moves signal that the assumptions underpinning global commerce for three decades have shattered.
The data confirms what boardrooms increasingly understand. The Geopolitical Risk with Trade Index has surged approximately 30% since 2020, compared to the previous two decades. The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index has nearly tripled. The use of sanctions has more than tripled since 2019. Restrictions on exports of industrial raw materials increased fivefold between 2009 and 2023, now targeting not just military items but also cutting-edge technologies such as semiconductors, AI, and quantum computing.
Companies that once worried primarily about exchange rates and regulatory compliance now navigate trade wars, sanctions, export controls, nationalist boycotts, and populist leaders who prize political theater over economic rationality. In this environment, ignorance of geopolitics isn't just risky, it's reckless.
We have entered an era defined by geoeconomic fragmentation and exponential innovation. Established cooperative frameworks are under pressure, requiring more dialogue, imagination, and entrepreneurship to maintain momentum. Technology deploys at unprecedented speed, with companies playing ever-greater roles in shaping outcomes.
As Edward Fishman, author of Chokepoints: How the Global Economy Became a Weapon, observes, companies are increasingly "instruments of geoeconomic policy." Yet they retain agency through advocacy and compliance efforts, thereby shaping how policy is developed and implemented.
The challenge extends beyond managing discrete crises. Rupert Younger, who founded Oxford University's Centre for Corporate Reputation, notes: "Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, we have lived in a world characterized by remarkably stable geopolitics. Now geopolitical complexity and unpredictability are back, but today's boards, executives, and corporate-affairs teams have little muscle memory for navigating these volatile conditions."
Karthik Ramanna, professor of business and public policy at Oxford, captures the strategic dilemma: "If you don't play the short game, you're not around to play the long game, but if you only play the short game, you'll find yourself outcompeted by your peers in the long term."
Consider Apple. The company built an empire on "Designed by Apple in California. Assembled in China," A subtle geopolitical message suggesting the real innovation remained American while mass assembly leveraged Chinese efficiency. That model is breaking down. The company is expanding into India and Vietnam, enhancing supply chain resilience while courting US allies.
Even pedestrian regulations carry geopolitical weight. When Brussels mandated USB-C ports across consumer electronics, Apple lobbied hard, arguing that "strict regulation mandating just one type of connector stifles innovation." Brussels was unmoved. Apple SVP Greg Joswiak acknowledged reality at a WSJ Tech Live conference: "Governments get to do what they're gonna do. Obviously, we'll have to comply. We have no choice."
He's right. Governments have changed the rules, and companies have no choice but to comply.
Despite mounting evidence, most corporations remain woefully unprepared. Geopolitical advisory units and risk analysts too often occupy ancillary roles peripheral to core decision-making—consultants writing reports that gather dust, government affairs departments focused on tactical lobbying rather than strategic anticipation.
What's needed is fundamental restructuring: a Chief Geopolitics Officer (CGO) at the C-suite level with a seat at the table where decisions get made daily. This isn't about adding another layer of compliance. It's about integrating political intelligence into every major business decision, whether capital allocation, supply chain design, or market-entry strategy.
The CGO role addresses systemic risks that traditional risk management cannot handle. This executive must understand how governments think, how regulators operate, how political crises unfold, how voters respond, and how to navigate all four simultaneously. They require sophisticated intelligence capabilities, scenario-planning expertise, and the authority to shape corporate strategy in real time as geopolitical conditions evolve.
Rising expectations of corporate patriotism add another dimension. Business leaders who spent careers in hyperglobalization must now balance global operations with alignment with home-country geoeconomic agendas. In Europe, "lobbying" carries negative connotations and is replaced by "advocacy" or "active engagement." You're packaging the same activities differently to be culturally effective.
US businesses must prepare for an era of endless tit-for-tat tariffs, restructured supply chains, and elevated interest rates driven by geopolitical instability. This requires four strategic imperatives:
First, integrate geopolitical intelligence into core strategy. This means elevating political risk analysis from a compliance function to a strategic driver. Every significant investment, partnership, and market decision must account for regulatory shifts, sanctions risk, and diplomatic tensions.
Second, build supply chain resilience through geographic diversification. The era of optimizing purely for efficiency is over. Companies must balance cost considerations with geopolitical stability, cultivating supplier relationships across multiple jurisdictions and political alignments.
Third, proactively engage governments and stakeholders. Reactive crisis management no longer suffices. Companies need sustained dialogue with policymakers in Washington, Brussels, Beijing, and other power centers, shaping policy before it shapes them.
Fourth, develop internal capabilities for scenario planning and rapid response. The CGO must lead war-gaming exercises that stress-test business models against various geopolitical shocks, including sanctions escalation, intensification of trade wars, and regional conflicts that disrupt critical supply routes.
This interconnected geopolitical business environment demands specialized expertise.
Caracal Global is a geopolitical business communications firm that lives at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics—home of the world's most savvy participants. The firm specializes in Globalization + American Politics, providing Intelligence + Strategy + Communications services for senior executives, board members, and CEOs responsible for geopolitics, corporate affairs, public affairs, stakeholder engagement, and communications. Led by a Michigan-born, DC-based global business advocate with experience in US and UK national political campaigns, US-China commercial relations, NATO, and media engagement, Caracal Global helps Fortune 1,000 companies navigate today's interconnected business environment where commerce and statecraft have become inseparable.
Geopolitical risk has crossed the threshold from manageable concern to core strategic challenge. The most forward-thinking companies already recognize this reality and are acting accordingly. The question for every other CEO is simple: Will you establish the capabilities to navigate this new landscape before your competitors do, or will you learn these lessons the expensive way?
Alan Turing wrote in 1950: "We can only see a short distance ahead, but we can see plenty there that needs to be done." In today's geopolitical environment, that short distance requires constant vigilance, sophisticated analysis, and strategic agility. The companies that build these capabilities now will define the winners in tomorrow's geoeconomic competition.
*****
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*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
The middle-power dilemma: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's call for the rest of the world to join forces to manage a new era of economic and geopolitical turmoil will resonate with national leaders worldwide. But the path to unity among middle powers is fraught, because interests within such a broad grouping rarely align. Eswar Prasad
The dilemmas for the UK created by a rupturing world: New priorities are needed to succeed amid unreliable and competing great powers. Martin Wolf
A world without nuclear arms control begins this week: New Start treaty, which expires on Thursday, capped the number of missiles and warheads in US and Russian arsenals. FT
US and Iranian officials to meet as Trump’s threats loom: NYT reports President Trump’s Middle East envoy and his son-in-law were expected to meet Iran’s foreign minister in Istanbul on Friday amid tensions between the countries.
Iran's proxy groups are ready for a wider existential war: Unlike 2025 conflict with Israel, 'Axis of Resistance' primed for bigger role. Vali Kaleji
AP: A Kremlin official confirms that US-brokered Russia-Ukraine talks are resuming this week
Germany arrests 5 over violation of Russia sanctions: DW reports five German, Russian, and Ukrainian nationals were arrested in Lübeck for allegedly exporting goods to Russian defense companies.
Russian captain found guilty in North Sea tanker collision: DW reports Vladimir Motin has been convicted for manslaughter after a deadly collision last year off the coast of the UK.
Epstein scandal sends shockwaves through the British establishment: WSJ reports the British prime minister urged ex-US Ambassador Peter Mandelson and former Prince Andrew to cooperate with US authorities.
Police look into Jeffrey Epstein ‘leaks from Peter Mandelson’: The Times reports Lord Mandelson is accused of sending the disgraced financier a private email from an adviser to the then prime minister Gordon Brown.
This is what a proper Brexit looks like: Prosperity and security will be driven by removing unnecessary barriers that hold businesses back. Nick Thomas-Symonds
International companies cut off business in the US because of ICE: WP reports French multinational Capgemini moved to distance itself “immediately” from ICE after criticism from French officials; a Canadian company has also canceled a sale to the agency.
France spirals down EU wealth list towards ‘third-world status’: The country used to be among Europe’s richest economies but it’s being overtaken and critics warn there is no recovery on the horizon. The Times
Rome brings in €2 tourist charge to see the Trevi fountain: Visitors will have to splash out for their Emily in Paris moment at the landmark but will the fees stop it turning into a battlefield at high season? The Times
In Italy, church and state investigate the appearance of a cherub seemingly modeled on Meloni: AP reports the diocese of Rome and the Italian Culture Ministry both launched investigations into the recent renovations at the Basilica of San Lorenzo in Lucina, after photographs of the Meloni-esque cherub were published in Italian newspapers this weekend. Their swift and harsh reactions indicated little tolerance for the profane in a sacred place.
Costa Rican president-elect looks to Bukele for help against crime: AFP reports Costa Rican President-elect Laura Fernandez on Monday welcomed guidance from El Salvador's gang-busting Nayib Bukele in her own country's fight against a surge in drug-related violence.
How a Silicon Valley startup became a crypto lifeline for Venezuela: WSJ reports cryptocurrency fintech Kontigo, which recently raised $20 million from Coinbase and others, is under fire for its role in helping Venezuelans avoid sanctions.
Argentines snap up Lego and Apple computers as Javier Milei opens economy: FT reports Amazon, Shein and Temu gain a foothold after libertarian president cuts import tariffs.
Canada should keep options open on acquiring nuclear weapons, former top soldier says: G+M reports retired general Wayne Eyre says the question of whether to develop a nuclear deterrent is not an immediate concern.
China is the main beneficiary of Trump’s Arctic antics: As the US redeploys its navy and alienates allies, Beijing is filling the void. Isaac Kardon
+ The writer is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of ‘China’s Law of the Sea: The New Rules of Maritime Order.’
China eyes reshaping global order as US influence wanes: As the Trump administration pulls the US back from international institutions, China is stepping up its diplomatic outreach while pursuing leadership roles in selected areas. DW
Xi’s ominous purge of his top general: Xi’s power play bodes badly, whether it is a sign of strength or weakness. FT-Editorial
China’s opacity brings Pekingology back into vogue: What, for example, is behind Xi Jinping’s sweeping military purge? Economist
+ Ross Rant Flashback: When Beijing purges generals, what CEOs should know. Read the post here.
Trump announces long-awaited trade deal with India: Politico reports the US will lower its duty on India from 25 percent to 18 percent as part of the agreement, the president said in a social media post.
Trump announces initial trade deal with India: NYT reports the agreement was short on details, but President Trump said India had promised to stop buying Russian oil and would buy more US products for a reduction on tariffs.
Trump says US and India reached trade deal, will lower tariffs immediately: CNBC reports Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed to “stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela,” Trump said on Truth Social.
+ Ross Rant Flashback: When Europe and India trade: What the world's largest trade pact means for US business. Read the post here.
Trump administration to create $12 billion rare earth stockpile to counter China: WSJ reports president’s move comes after Beijing used its dominance over the minerals supply chain to squeeze US industries.
US to launch $12bn critical minerals stockpile to counter China’s dominance: FT reports US Export-Import Bank will provide $10bn in debt financing for effort named Project Vault.
America is alienating what could become a superpower: If Europe and Asian democracies coordinate, they can reshape the global balance. Max Boot
The stablecoin war: Wall Street vs crypto over the future of money: Banks say rules governing the digital currency are a risk to financial stability. Are they just trying to stamp out competition? FT
Capitalism has already ended and we don’t even know it, Yanis Varoufakis warns: Speaking to Euronews after his panel at Web Summit Qatar, the former Greek finance minister said the world could be heading toward another crisis like 2008, driven by the rise of stablecoins and powerful tech platforms. Euronews
*** US Politics + Elections ***
How Mike Johnson is scrambling to keep the shutdown short: Politico reports conservatives want the SAVE Act, a partisan elections bill, added to the $1.2 trillion spending package.
House GOP searches for votes to end shutdown with razor-thin majority: WP reports House Democrats have indicated privately that they do not plan to support the plan, leaving Republicans to go it alone.
CNN: Justice Department expected to ramp up efforts to deliver on Trump’s ‘weaponization’ priorities
Trump wants to ‘nationalize the voting,’ seeking to grab states’ power: WP reports Trump, who continues to falsely claim that he won the 2020 election, has baselessly alleged widespread fraud.
Trump, in an escalation, calls for Republicans to ‘nationalize’ elections: NYT reports the comments, made on a conservative podcast, follow a string of moves from his administration to try to exert more control over American elections.
Trump had unusual call with FBI agents after election center search: NYT reports Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, brokered the call and President Trump directly questioned frontline agents on the inquiry, The Times has learned.
CBS: Georgia's Fulton County to file motion after FBI seizes 2020 election ballots
Classified whistleblower complaint about Tulsi Gabbard stalls within her agency: Congress hasn’t seen the complaint, which was filed eight months ago with the US intelligence community’s watchdog office. WSJ
‘It’s been brutal’: Twin Cities economy suffers under ICE crackdown: NYT reports immigration raids have scared off customers and workers, a pattern repeated in other cities where federal officials have arrived in force.
Wanted: CEOs with backbone: The killing of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis is a moment for leaders to challenge America’s direction. Rana Foroohar
ICE agents hate being filmed: FT reports Trump administration accused of trampling First Amendment by targeting Americans recording immigration raids.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said today that the January jobs report will be delayed due to the shutdown, per Bloomberg.
‘Hot mess’: Former Trump cyber leader slams DHS leadership void: Politico reports Bridget Bean, the former acting director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, said in an exclusive interview that without permanent leadership, agencies under DHS are “not working.”
Trump says not 'ripping' down Kennedy Center -- much: AFP reports Trump said Monday he would not demolish the Kennedy Center but hinted at major changes, a day after announcing he is closing the famed Washington arts venue for two years for renovations.
This famed architect says Trump’s plan for Kennedy Center is ‘absurd’: FC reports that Steven Holl, architect of the ‘much loved’ national cultural center’s recent expansion, has thoughts on its proposed 2-year closure.
‘Crisis’: The fallout from Trump’s surprise plan to close Kennedy Center: WP reports the president’s announcement shocked artists and staff. A letter obtained by The Washington Post brought the National Symphony Orchestra’s future into focus.
How the Supreme Court secretly made itself even more secretive: Amid calls to increase transparency and revelations about the court’s inner workings, the chief justice imposed nondisclosure agreements on clerks and employees. NYT
Trump’s AI push exposes a divide in the MAGA movement CNN
The real reason Silicon Valley won’t stand up to Trump Aaron Zamost
+ Zamost is a tech communications consultant and former head of communications, policy and people at Square.
The Hill: Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene: MAGA ‘was all a lie’
Tina Smith endorses Peggy Flanagan over Angie Craig in Minnesota Senate race: Politico reports the retiring senator is choosing a fellow progressive and lieutenant governor as her successor over moderate Rep. Angie Craig.
Nancy Mace is not okay: “Something’s broken. The motherboard’s fried. We’re short-circuiting somewhere.” Jake Lahut
AFP: Epstein files: AI photos circulate of Zohran Mamdani’s mother at party
Clintons capitulate on House Epstein inquiry, agreeing to testify: NYT reports former President Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton, the ex-secretary of state, agreed to depositions they had long resisted days before the House was to vote to hold them in contempt.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
SpaceX has acquired xAI, in a deal that encompasses the billionaire’s increasingly costly ambitions to dominate artificial intelligence and space exploration.
Elon Musk merges SpaceX with his AI start-up xAI: The deal further intermingles Musk’s companies and creates the most valuable private company on earth. NYT
SpaceX buys xAI to unite crucial parts of Musk’s empire: Rocket company and AI model builder to combine as billionaire envisions data centres in space. FT
SpaceX is requesting permission to launch as many as 1 million satellites into the Earth’s orbit in order to pull off Elon Musk’s latest grand vision of putting data centers in space to do complex computing for artificial intelligence.
Musk merges xAI into SpaceX in bid to build space data centers: AFP reports Elon Musk's SpaceX has taken over his artificial intelligence company xAI in a merger aimed at deploying space-based data centers, a statement said on Monday.
OpenAI accused Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company of “systematic and intentional destruction” of evidence in xAI’s lawsuit accusing the ChatGPT maker of trying to thwart competition in emerging markets.
A social network for AI bots only. No humans allowed. NYT reports a new website called Moltbook has become the talk of Silicon Valley and a Rorschach test for belief in the state of artificial intelligence.
A social network for AI agents is full of introspection—and threats: How worried should you be about Moltbook? Economist
The church of molt is not for humans: The rise of Crustafarianism has confounded many tech users, but what if AI agents are merely mimicking human behavior? Jessica Karl
SoftBank, Fanuc turn to partners as robotics and AI merge: Nikkei reports Japan's robotics industry struggles to catch up to physical AI technology.
Hyundai Motor to deploy AI robots at US plants as Trump tariffs hit profit: Nikkei reports humanoids by Boston Dynamics can run 24 hours a day.
Palantir shares jump 7% on rapid revenue growth: FT reports data intelligence group predicts 61% boost in sales this year.
Oracle plans to raise $45 billion to $50 billion this year through a combination of debt and equity sales to build additional cloud infrastructure capacity, reflecting the scale of financing needed to feed AI’s growth.
AI is not the only threat menacing Big Tech: Are Meta and Google ads really recession-proof? Economist
Waymo raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation, a funding round that reflects its rapid ascent as a robotaxi pioneer.
EU companies adopt BYD, Yutong buses despite China security fears: Nikkei reports German, Belgian, Austrian transport groups cite low price, superior electric tech.
Indonesian coffee chains brew stronger overseas ambitions: Slow domestic growth and robust regional demand drive expansion strategies. Nikkei
McDonald's is offering McNugget Caviar kits.
Eddie Bauer is closing stores as list of struggling mall retailers grows in 2026: FC reports the company that operates the outdoor recreation brand’s US stores is expected to seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, a source confirmed.
The wild markets behind Polymarket’s ‘truth machine’: Shayne Coplan has built the crypto-based betting platform into a $9 billion company; Justice Department probe gets shelved. WSJ
*** Culture ***
The real reasons Sundance’s legendary film fest is done with Park City: Next year’s move to Boulder was foreshadowed by red flags and rising costs. WP
The GRAMMYs: The only show where I have to Shazam every single performance just to know what’s going on.
*** Sport ***
Between the sheets at the college Excel championships: One of the most unusual — and fun — events in college sports is a high-stakes spreadsheeting competition in Las Vegas. WP
The half-billion dollar offseason that rebuilt the Patriots winning machine: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are long gone. But a new coach, a rising star at quarterback and an enormous offseason investment in the franchise has New England back in the Super Bowl. WSJ
Is football doomed? Chuck Klosterman thinks so. In his new book, the writer goes deep on a sport that dominates American cultural life — but possibly not for long. NYT
Do they call it a 'Quarterback with Cheese' over there? NFL's first game in France will be Browns-Saints in Paris on October 25.
It’s way too early to discuss Carlos Alcaraz as an all-time tennis great. Let’s do it anyway. The 22-year-old from Spain remains on a historic pace after winning his first Australian Open—and seventh major overall. Jason Gay
United by soccer, not mountain sports: Italians offer tepid enthusiasm for the Winter Olympics Eric Reguly
FIFA president Infantino defends giving peace prize to Trump: AFP reports FIFA chief Gianni Infantino defended his controversial decision to award a peace prize to United States president Donald Trump as he dismissed calls for a World Cup boycott.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Global Daily | February 3
