Caracal Global Daily
Caracal Global Daily is a human-curated global intelligence briefing that connects geopolitical developments, economic trends, and strategic business insights.
February 13, 2026
Detroit, MI
*** Ross Rant ***
The CIA releases a recruitment video. Your business should be taking notes.
How does the CIA conduct spy recruitment today? It posts a video on YouTube, of course.
Not quietly. Not in a classified brief shared with Congressional oversight committees. But loudly, on social media, in Mandarin, aimed at disillusioned Chinese military officers. The message was direct: contact us securely. Tell us the truth about China's leadership. Help us understand what Beijing is hiding.
This wasn't public relations theater. This was a strategic signal wrapped in a recruitment strategy, and it tells corporate America something essential about the world you're operating in right now.
The timing matters. The CIA released "Save the Future" just weeks after China purged General Zhang Youxia, the number two uniformed officer on Chairman Xi's Central Military Commission, along with General Liu Zhenli. Zhang's removal represents the most serious purge of top Chinese military leadership since Mao. But he wasn't the first. Dozens of similar moves against senior People's Liberation Army (PLA) generals have occurred in recent years, all orchestrated by Xi and signaling instability at the highest levels of Chinese military command.
For US intelligence agencies, this creates an opportunity. Extensive purges mean extensive frustration. Qualified officers are being replaced by political loyalists. Career professionals watch unqualified party members leapfrog the merit system. The documentary framing in that CIA video captures this reality: the disillusioned officer watching capable generals removed and replaced by apparatchiks, witnessing how corruption corrodes both institutions and families.
The CIA's message to these officers was telling: your duty is to China and its citizens, not to the Communist Party. Contact us. Help us understand the truth. The subtext was unmistakable: Beijing's instability creates vulnerability.
Here's what this means for global business operating in China:
The United States and China are no longer competitors in any conventional sense. They are strategic adversaries engaged in a permanent competition for intelligence, influence, and advantage. That CIA video wasn't an exception to the rules of geopolitical engagement. It was confirmation that those rules have fundamentally changed. The recruiting video was the tip of a much larger intelligence war now playing out across technology, military capabilities, supply chains, and economic influence.
Your business operates within this context, whether you're a manufacturer reliant on Asian supply chains, a technology firm concerned about China's espionage capabilities, or a global enterprise managing government relationships across multiple jurisdictions. The world your board discussed five years ago was one of managed competition and gradual decoupling. The world you're operating in now is one of rapid, unpredictable disruption.
This manifests in three concrete ways:
First, tariff volatility is now a permanent feature of American trade policy. Team Trump's approach to China, allies, and trading partners suggests that traditional frameworks are finished. Supply chain plans built on assumptions of stable tariff environments are obsolete. You need redundancy, geographic diversification, and strategic planning that assumes tariffs will shift.
Second, supply chain resilience requires government relationships as an essential strategy. Your sourcing strategy must now account for not just cost efficiency but also geopolitical risk, export control regimes, and the need to maintain relationships with multiple governments simultaneously. That's not a communications problem. It's an operational necessity.
Third, interest rate environments will remain elevated and volatile as long as the geopolitical uncertainty persists. Your financial planning cannot assume the near-zero rate environment of the previous decade. Budget for higher costs of capital. Plan for continued pressure on margins.
The common thread?
You cannot navigate this environment reactively.
You need a strategic framework for understanding persistent geopolitical volatility, not temporary disruption.
That requires three things: intelligence on what's actually happening in global geopolitics, not what traditional media reports; a strategy for engaging government stakeholders, competitors, and allies simultaneously; and a communications architecture that helps your board, your teams, and your stakeholders understand the landscape you're operating in.
Caracal Global helps multinational corporations navigate this terrain. Our team, led by a Michigan-born, DC-based strategist with expertise spanning US-China relations, NATO, and national political campaigns, specializes in intelligence, strategy, and communications at the intersection of globalization and American politics. We help you translate geopolitical reality into operational capability.
The CIA's video is a brilliant recruitment strategy. But for you, it's a reminder: the geopolitical ground is shifting beneath your business.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
2026 State of Security: Explore the intelligence from Recorded Future's Insikt Group annual threat landscape analysis: the definitive report on how geopolitical fragmentation, state-sponsored operations, and criminal ecosystem evolution are reshaping global risk. Report
The future of US nuclear weapons policy Alison Fong
CIA releases new video in bid to lure Chinese military officers to spy for US: FT reports the US intelligence agency seeks to tap into frustration over extensive purges at People’s Liberation Army. Watch the video here.
+ The US intelligence agency on Thursday released a video titled “Save the Future” on YouTube and other social media, nine months after it published Chinese-language videos to help recruitment for the first time.
+ The video will also be published on X, Facebook, Instagram, and LinkedIn.
CIA releases new video recruiting spies in China: Le Monde reports that the Chinese text accompanying the clip, posted on the agency's YouTube channel on Thursday, appeals for leaks about Beijing's leaders, military, and other areas. The move is likely to further infuriate China.
America and China at the edge of ruin: A last chance to step back from the brink. David M. Lampton + Wang Jisi
What China is really up to in the Arctic: Its close co-operation with Russia is alarming many in the region. Economist
Trump reins in China tech curbs: The Trump administration has paused several tech curbs aimed at Beijing ahead of President Donald Trump’s visit to China, Reuters reported. The shelved measures include restrictions on the sale of Chinese hardware to US data centers.
Lunar New Year travel: China is expecting a record 9.5 billion trips to be made during the 40-day Lunar New Year travel period, as Beijing targets tourism to boost domestic consumption.
Taiwan warns neighbours ‘you’ll be next’ if China invades: The Times reports President Lai cautions that if Taipei falls, Beijing will continue its crusade across the Indo-Pacific.
North Korea: According to South Korea's National Intelligence Service, Kim Jong Un will designate his daughter Kim Ju Ae as his successor, which would make her the first female leader in North Korea's history.
The world’s most powerful woman: Japan’s prime minister has earned a once-in-a-generation chance to remake her country. Will she seize it? Economist
Today: The Munich Security Conference begins.
AP: Europe warily awaits Rubio at Munich Security Conference as Trump roils transatlantic ties
In Munich, Europe’s leaders wonder if they can ever trust America again: Officials gather on Friday for Europe’s biggest annual security summit, where a speech by Vice President JD Vance last year started an unraveling of trans-Atlantic relations. NYT
Germany and France now publicly display their disagreements over Macron's proposals: Le Monde reports Friedrich Merz's government has criticized the idea of a joint European loan and the push for European preference in goods purchases advocated by Emmanuel Macron. These disagreements come on top of tensions over the Mercosur trade deal and the use of frozen Russian assets.
A German general prepares his country for war—and the clock is ticking: Could Russia launch a war across Europe? The Germans aren’t waiting to find out. WSJ
Poll: Top NATO allies don’t think the US helps deter enemies anymore. The United States' eroding reputation is raising fresh questions about the stability of the global order that has held for decades and about the country's strength on the world stage. Politico
AP: NATO launches Arctic Sentry military effort in seeking to move on from Greenland dispute
Swedish deputy PM: European leaders must ‘toughen up,’ stop waiting for Brussels, US: Politico reports that if member countries take the initiative in certain areas, it would make the EU more agile and less bureaucratic, Ebba Busch says.
Inside Epstein’s network: What 1.4m emails reveal about America’s most notorious sex offender. Economist
Gordon Brown has called for the police to interview Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor over Jeffrey Epstein’s sex-trafficking network.
Honey traps and hidden cameras: All of Epstein’s suspicious ties to Moscow: Telegraph reports from Moscow flights to friendships with Kremlin officials, the late paedophile’s emails raise alarming questions over his ties to Putin.
Russia is looking to the developing world to recruit labor and combatants as its war in Ukraine churns on.
France bets on nuclear as climate policy fractures across Europe: FT reports ambitious solar and wind plans trimmed as government confronts political challenge.
US smuggled thousands of Starlink terminals into Iran after protest crackdown: WSJ reports the Trump administration has denied fomenting public unrest in Iran, but the operation shows it has provided covert support to antiregime efforts.
Bloomberg: Trump says he sees Iran talks resolving ‘over the next month’
Israel charges two over Polymarket bets on military operations: FT reports a civilian and reservist charged with security offences, bribery and obstructing justice after ‘red line’ crossed with online gambling.
American refugees aren’t welcome: Why Canada won’t be a safe haven for US residents fleeing ICE. Greg Willoughby
Mexico seizes huge cocaine haul in rare joint action with US: FT reports operation in the Pacific came hours after border airspace was temporarily closed.
AP: 2 Mexican Navy ships laden with humanitarian aid dock in Cuba as US blockade sparks energy crisis
Cuba’s fate may be in Marco Rubio’s hands: The Economist understands that American officials are considering sending fuel to the island to stave off a humanitarian crisis. Economist
Oil companies in ‘active’ talks over recouping Venezuela losses: Bloomberg reports ConocoPhillips and other energy companies that lost billions of dollars after Venezuela nationalized its oil industry decades ago are in talks with acting Venezuela President Delcy Rodríguez over recouping some ground, according to US Energy Secretary Chris Wright.
Nicolás Maduro is still the 'legitimate president' of Venezuela, acting leader Delcy Rodriguez says: “Cooperation is off to a tremendous start,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright told NBC News as the two countries hammered out details of how Venezuela’s vast oil reserves are to be distributed.
Two US Navy ships collide in waters near South America: WSJ reports two personnel report minor injuries after ship-to-ship refueling.
Cartel drones vs Texas lasers Joshua Treviño
El Paso incident highlights gaps in America’s drone defense industry: The US has spent billions of dollars developing counter-drone technology, but much of it needs more testing in the real world. NYT
US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says: Central bank’s research undercuts Trump’s claims that foreign companies will pay for levies. FT
Americans are paying the bill for tariffs, despite Trump’s claims: Research from the New York Fed confirms that US companies and consumers are bearing tariff costs, despite the president’s assertions otherwise. NYT
On Trump’s tariffs, Supreme Court hurries up and waits: The justices put the case on a fast track at the administration’s urging. But they don’t seem in a rush to rule on the president’s signature economic program. NYT
*** US Politics + Elections ***
The Hill: DHS shutdown imminent after Senate Democrats block Homeland Security bill
+ A Saturday shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security is all but inevitable after the Senate failed to advance a funding bill and headed out on a week-long break without a deal on new limits on immigration enforcement.
MN + ICE: Trump’s border czar said Thursday that the administration is ending its immigration enforcement surge in Minnesota.
SOTU: Trump is scheduled to deliver his State of the Union Address on February 24.
Americans with higher incomes are starting to fall behind on payments: WSJ reports rising debt levels and more missed payments pushed a financial stress gauge to its highest level ever.
CNBC: Realtors report a ‘new housing crisis’ as January home sales tank more than 8%
Trump’s home investment crackdown is all about the suburbs: Wall Street forgives; voters may not. FT
NYT: Trump repeals US power to regulate climate
Trump revokes key climate finding, dismantling legal basis for emissions rules: Le Mode reports the US president is scrapping the landmark 2009 finding that greenhouse gases threaten human life by warming the planet. The move is expected to face swift legal challenges.
AP: Pentagon let CBP use anti-drone laser before FAA closed El Paso airspace, AP sources say
Gabbard Whistleblower complaint based on intercepted conversation about Jared Kushner: WSJ reports the substance of the conversation, which covered in part issues related to Iran, isn’t known.
Intelligence dispute centers on Kushner reference in intercepted communication: NYT reports a whistle-blower has accused Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, of blocking distribution of a report that Jared Kushner’s name came up in an intercepted communication about Iran.
QOTD: “I’m not scared of a germ. I used to snort cocaine off of toilet seats.” -- Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, on a podcast.
Gail Slater steps down as DOJ’s antitrust chief: Politico reports Slater led some of the agency’s most prominent antitrust cases, particularly against the tech industry.
Federal court blocks Hegseth effort to punish Democratic senator: Politico reports the judge said the Pentagon had “trampled” on Sen. Mark Kelly’s First Amendment freedoms.
Judge rejects Hegseth bid to punish Sen. Kelly for video message to troops: WP reports the Trump administration intends to appeal the ruling, which says the retired Navy officer’s right to free speech was under attack.
As the US nears its 250th birthday, dissatisfaction with democracy is widespread: The nation stands out among international surveys of democracy for critical views of leaders and institutions. Richard Wike
Top Republican ends bid for Arizona governor, showing MAGA’s power: NYT reports Karrin Taylor Robson, a wealthy businesswoman, dropped out after trailing in polls to Representative Andy Biggs, who is more aligned with supporters of President Trump.
Politico: House Democrats think Pam Bondi just helped them in the midterms
A tech group is launching a new effort to keep Democrats from falling behind on AI: Tech for Campaigns plans to partner with Democratic groups to test what works. Politico
Anthropic said it would donate $20 million to a super PAC focused on AI safety and regulation, setting up a fight with rival and top political spender OpenAI.
+ Anthropic PBC is donating $20 million to Public First, a political advocacy group that backs congressional candidates who favor safety rules for artificial intelligence.
+ The donation aims to strengthen AI safety advocates' fight against Leading the Future, a super PAC that plans to spend $125 million to support lighter regulation of the technology.
+ Anthropic's contribution is part of its commitment to governance that enables AI's transformative potential and helps proportionately manage its risks.
Anthropic puts $20 million into a Super PAC operation to counter OpenAI: NYT reports Anthropic and OpenAI now have their own well-funded political groups that will square off in the midterm elections over artificial intelligence safety and regulation.
OpenAI pivots its California ballot fight to legislature: Politico reports that should talks with state lawmakers not pan out, the Parents and Kids Safe AI Act campaign is reserving the option to go for the 2028 ballot.
The truth about Tucker Carlson – and it isn’t pretty: Telegraph reports the controversial US pundit is a fascinating and unpredictable figure. But he emerges from a new book as a slick opportunist above all.
This Tucker Carlson biography is a chronicle of an era John Mac Ghlionn
Is Tucker Carlson now too extreme for the MAGA crowd? The pugillistic pundit’s long journey from mainstream conservative to conspiracy theorist is chronicled by Jason Zengerle in Hated By All the Right People. The Times
AP: Trump’s defamation lawsuit against the BBC is set to go to trial in 2027, US judge says
Apple faces new tensions with Trump administration: FT reports US regulator issues warning to iPhone maker about its News platform following controversy over Super Bowl half-time show.
The unflinching hosts of ‘I’ve Had It’ aren’t backing down: Jennifer Welch and Angie Sullivan have emerged as effective political commentators. WP
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
This technology could revolutionize electricity — from space: Wireless power transmission from space was once science fiction. It could soon become a reality. WP
China’s rising AI billionaires: A new generation of entrepreneurs is challenging US dominance — and rapidly building huge fortunes on the back of China’s quest for technological independence. Bloomberg
They want to turn Greenland into an AI powerhouse. Locals aren’t buying it. A former Trump official and a Greenlandic businessman want to hitch the island up to the US through investment. WSJ
AI is getting scary good at making predictions: Even superforecasters are guessing that they’ll soon be obsolete. Ross Andersen
Anthropic finalizes $30 billion fundraising round at $380 billion valuation.
OpenAI rival Anthropic doubles valuation to $380 billion in $30 billion funding round: Le Monde reports the round, led by Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC and hedge fund Coatue Management, is among the largest private fundraising deals on record and comes just five months after the company closed its previous round at a $183 billion valuation.
Anthropic to cover costs of electricity price increases from its data centers: NBC News reports that leading AI company Anthropic said it would upgrade power grid infrastructure, generate new power, and cover consumer price increases to minimize the effects of its data centers.
VCs break taboo by backing both Anthropic, OpenAI in AI battle: Silicon Valley investors are breaking a longstanding taboo by investing in competing startups. Bloomberg
How private equity’s big bet on software was derailed by AI: Dealmakers and lenders are facing a ‘Darwinian moment’ as digital services risk being made obsolete by new technologies. FT
Why the AI attack on software has unnerved so many industries: The battle over the use of agents is starting to come into focus. Richard Waters
Real estate stocks sink as worries about AI risks spread: Bloomberg reports commercial real estate stocks nosedived Thursday as traders worried about risk to demand for office space from higher use of artificial intelligence tools, broadening a selloff that began Wednesday in a small corner of the market.
+ Analysts describe the selloff as part of the "AI scare trade", with some warning that the selling may be overestimating the risks of AI disruption.
Instagram chief says social media is not ‘clinically addictive’ in landmark trial: Adam Mosseri, who leads the Meta-owned app, testified that the company was careful to test features used by young people before releasing them. NYT
Don’t ban teenagers from social media: Restrictions would do more harm than good. Economist
For the first time, X tracked conversation about this year's Super Bowl ads in real time as it seeks to re-cement itself as the dominant digital town square.
Where the battle for Warner Bros. stands now: The situation intensified this week as Paramount CEO David Ellison—and a vocal investor—made new moves to thwart rival Netflix’s planned takeover. WSJ
Compass Coffee had Starbucks-size ambitions. Here’s how it unraveled. The homegrown DC coffee chain’s push to expand its way to profitability ended in a January bankruptcy filing. WP
*** Culture ***
F1 producer Jerry Bruckheimer has confirmed a sequel is in the works.
Sandra Bernhard has been cast in the upcoming fourth season of The White Lotus.
The case for tourist taxes: Milan is hiking up its tourist levy in time for the Olympics. Bustling Canadian vacation towns should get in on the action too. Heather Spearman
Today: Carnival begins in Rio de Janeiro.
The secret to happiness? These experts say it’s feeling loved by others. A happiness researcher and a relationship expert teamed up to write about how we can all feel more loved. They argue it’s the key to happiness. WP
*** Sport ***
The secret edge of the office ‘rock star’ skier: Being an alpine ace can help you stand out at work, especially with company ski outings on the rise. Callum Borchers
Ice hockey at the 2026 Olympics: A mountain sport looks to win over France's big cities: The majority of players on the French national team hail from urban centers. This shift reflects the changing landscape of the sport across the country. Le Monde
Olympics crowd showed ‘European pride’ by booing JD Vance, EU top diplomat says: Politico reports: “Our public also has a pride, a European pride,” foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told an interviewer.
Did controversial judging cost US figure skaters a gold medal? In notoriously subjective ice dance, the Olympic title came down to the Americans, their French rivals, and the only people whose opinions mattered: the nine judges. WSJ
Could AI Judge the Olympics? In elite sports, technology makes competition fairer. Laurel Walzak
AP: Ukraine’s Vladyslav Heraskevych out of Winter Olympics because of banned helmet honoring war dead
Volodymyr Zelenskyy hits out after Olympics bars Ukrainian racer: FT reports Vladyslav Heraskevych wanted to wear helmet honouring compatriots killed in war during skeleton event.
Gold medal in the bag, Breezy Johnson gets more hardware: An engagement ring: WP reports Connor Watkins proposed to the US skier after she crashed out of the super-G, her final event of the Olympic Games.
Slovakian fugitive caught trying to attend hockey game at Milan Olympics after 16 years on the run: Toronto Star reports officers initially issued a warrant for the 44-year-old man in 2010 for a string of shoplifting thefts, which Reuters reports will cost him 11 months and seven days in prison.
NBA: Seattle and Las Vegas are the front-runners for expansion teams, with one current Western Conference team moving to the Eastern Conference.
Cade Cunningham is now a minority owner of the Texas Rangers.
Jim Ratcliffe immigration comments leave Man United hierarchy horrified: The Times reports club distance themselves from co-owner after he said Britain was ‘colonised by immigrants’, with statement saying United has ‘embedded equality, diversity and inclusion into everything we do.’
+ The Football Association is assessing Jim Ratcliffe’s remarks that Britain has been ‘colonised by immigrants.’ The Man United co-owner apologised this morning for his ‘choice of language’, acknowledging that he had ‘offended some people’, but that it was ‘important to raise the issue’ of immigration.
Inside NFL owner Steve Tisch’s ‘brief association’ with Epstein: WSJ reports files show Jeffrey Epstein introduced the New York Giants chairman and Hollywood producer to two women who were caught in Epstein’s web of abuse.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Global Daily | February 13
