Caracal Global Daily
February 18, 2026
Detroit, MI
Here's what a Chief Geopolitical Officer should be monitoring today.
Hiatus alert: Caracal Global Daily will be off next week. Marc will attend and curate Brigadoon @ Sundance Mountain Resort 2026. Back Monday, March 2.
*** Today's Focus ***
Item 1: Iran and the US agree on "guiding principles" for a nuclear deal in Geneva
Why this matters: For the first time in years, the two sides are operating from a shared framework rather than trading threats. That's not a deal—but it's the architecture one gets built on. Companies with Middle East exposure, energy-sector players, and defense contractors should update their scenario planning: a near-term military confrontation has become significantly less likely, even as significant gaps remain.
Item 2: Ukraine-Russia peace talks begin in Geneva under heavy US pressure—Moscow isn't budging
Why this matters: Russia is absorbing casualties and economic pressure, yet its negotiating team is led by a Kremlin aide who has publicly questioned Ukraine's sovereignty. That tells you everything about Moscow's real position. Companies with European operations should not interpret "talks are happening" as stability—Russia's maximalist demands and continued strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure signal this drags on. Watch European defense spending acceleration as the real hedge.
Item 3: Canada formally pivots from the US—on defense, on autos, on trade partners
Why this matters: This isn't symbolic. PM Carney has launched a multi-billion-dollar defense industrial strategy explicitly designed to reduce US dependency, is courting Chinese EV investment, and his government is threatening Detroit automakers who accepted Canadian subsidies but cut Canadian jobs. For US manufacturers with cross-border supply chains and for any company watching the North American trade architecture, the long-held stability of the US-Canada relationship is no longer assured. This is a structural shift, not a negotiating tactic.
*** Ross Rant ***
AOC's Munich stumble reveals a geopolitical knowledge gap in America's leaders
When Democrat New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) fumbles over her words, pauses blankly at the Munich Security Conference—one of the world's premier foreign-policy events—and won't commit the United States to defending Taiwan if China ever invades, the stumble reveals a geopolitical knowledge gap among America's leaders. Jim Geraghty in the Washington Post called the moment "strategic incomprehensibility."
"Um, you know, I think that this is such a, you know, I think that this is, this is of course a very longstanding policy of the United States," Ocasio-Cortez said as she struggled to answer the question from moderator Francine Lacqua of Bloomberg TV. "What we are hoping for is that we want to make sure that we never get to that point," she added.
Yikes.
AOC, long known for her communications, was instantly hurt by this stumble, and her presidential aspirations will suffer. Her answer to Lacqua revealed that it takes more than being a progressive princess to become the leader of the free world.
Executives in corner offices in Chicago, Houston, and Atlanta shouldn't be gleeful in AOC's stumble. They should draw a very different lesson from this uncomfortable moment: if one of America's most prominent politicians couldn't answer the Taiwan question clearly, what does that say about how prepared your company is for the scenario itself?
Munich was revealing precisely because it was supposed to be a showcase. AOC arrived as the brightest star of the American progressive movement, a potential 2028 presidential candidate testing her foreign policy credentials before an audience of world leaders. Instead, she struggled to articulate a coherent position on the most consequential geopolitical flashpoint of our era. Even sympathetic voices in her own party conceded the stumbles. What was a surefire presidential soft launch venue turned into a hard landing, aka a crash.
But here is the harder truth: most corporate leadership teams would fare no better if pressed on the same question in a board meeting.
The Taiwan Strait is not an abstraction.
Approximately $3 trillion in global trade passes through those waters annually. Taiwan produces the majority of the world's most advanced semiconductors. A Chinese military action against Taiwan, whether a blockade, a missile campaign, or an amphibious assault, would immediately disrupt supply chains, freeze financial markets, trigger emergency sanctions regimes, and force every multinational corporation with Asia-Pacific exposure to make decisions for which most have no playbook. The question AOC couldn't answer is one your risk committee should be rehearsing quarterly.
The conference was ostensibly about security, but the underlying current was geopolitical fragmentation at scale. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio worked to reassure jittery European allies about America's commitment to NATO. At the same time, AOC offered a class-based internationalist framework that left even friendly observers uncertain about its policy implications. The result was a conference that produced more anxiety than clarity, a signal executives should internalize.
We are operating in a world where American foreign policy is being challenged by both foes and allies, where the traditional rules-based order is under strain from multiple directions simultaneously, and where the next administration, regardless of party, will inherit a geopolitical landscape fundamentally different from that of a decade ago. The business environment your company navigated in 2019 is not returning.
What does this mean operationally?
It means the persistent volatility your procurement teams are managing around tariffs is not a negotiating tactic to be waited out. It is structural. Tit-for-tat trade measures between the United States and its major economic rivals have become a durable feature of the global commercial landscape rather than an anomaly. Supply chain strategies built around cost optimization in a stable geopolitical environment need to be rebuilt around resilience in an unstable one. Capital expenditure decisions that once turned primarily on interest rates now must account for jurisdictional risk, sanctions exposure, and the political durability of bilateral relationships.
The boardrooms that will navigate this era successfully are those that treat government relations and geopolitical intelligence not as communications overhead but as operational infrastructure. Companies need to know which legislators are driving trade policy, which regulatory bodies the Trump administration is weaponizing, and which alliances are under stress before those dynamics produce a crisis that forces a reactive response.
AOC's Munich moment was a preview of the debates that will define the next presidential cycle, and by extension, the policy environment your business will operate within through the end of the decade. Taiwan, NATO burden-sharing, sanctions architecture, export controls, and industrial policy are all live questions with direct revenue implications for multinational corporations.
Caracal Global serves as a fractional Chief Geopolitical Officer for Fortune 1,000 companies and private equity portfolio companies, providing intelligence, strategy, and communications at the intersection of globalization and American politics. Michigan-born and DC-based, Caracal's leadership brings experience in US-China commercial relations, NATO affairs, and national political campaigns on both sides of the Atlantic.
The Taiwan question isn't going away.
The executives who answer it strategically, before the crisis forces the issue, will be the ones still standing when it does.
-Marc
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
Iran offers nuclear concessions as US talks make progress: WSJ reports Tehran floated enrichment pauses and business deals to encourage a nuclear deal amid military threats. Both sides now acknowledge a "set of guiding principles"—the first structural framework since talks collapsed. This reduces near-term conflict risk, but Tehran's foreign minister cautioned it "will take time to narrow" the gap, and VP Vance noted Iran hasn't acknowledged all of Trump's red lines.
+ For energy traders and companies with Gulf operations: adjust conflict risk premium downward for Q1, but don't price out volatility. The deal isn't done.
Russia presses demands, and faces pressure, as Ukraine talks move to Geneva: WP reports high casualties and economic trouble signal time may no longer be on Russia's side—but Moscow isn't backing off political and territorial demands.
Ukraine made its fastest territorial gains since 2023 in the past five days, while disrupted Starlink access is creating Russian command-and-control problems. And yet: Russia's negotiating team is led by a Kremlin aide who has questioned Ukraine's sovereignty, and Moscow carried out fresh strikes on Odesa's power grid the night before talks. This is not a party that believes it's losing.
+ For European-exposed companies: don't reduce risk posture based on Geneva optics alone.
Zelensky says it's unfair Trump is pressing him more than Putin: The Times reports Ukraine's president says his people would never forgive a deal surrendering the Donbas. The political pressure on Kyiv from Washington is real and escalating. Zelensky is being asked to make concessions that Putin isn't being asked to make. That asymmetry tells you something about how Trump's team has calibrated leverage.
+ Companies planning European investment or infrastructure exposure should model a scenario where a deal is reached on unfavorable terms for Ukraine—and what that means for European security architecture afterward.
NATO defense spending gap widens: France lagging, UK "going faster": Germany—which greenlit a debt-fueled military expansion—is calling out France for falling behind its NATO commitments. British PM Starmer says the UK must also accelerate its path toward 3% of GDP for defense. Both are hampered by weak economies.
+ The headline number at Munich was 5% of GDP pledged last June. The reality is a patchwork of capability gaps, political constraints, and economic headwinds. For defense contractors and European government affairs teams: Germany is the spender. France is the laggard. Identify who's buying.
Germany asks Ukraine to train its soldiers in drone warfare: The Times reports Ukrainian troops will instruct Bundeswehr counterparts in battlefield technologies under a new defense deal. Germany is acquiring institutional knowledge from the only force that has actually fought peer adversaries with modern drone systems at scale.
+ This is smart—and signals Berlin is preparing for a long-term strategic posture independent of US cover. Defense technology companies should be in this conversation.
Russia dirty tricks 'pave the way for attack on Baltics': The Times reports Russia and Belarus are promoting a fringe historical theory that could be used to justify a future invasion of Lithuania.
+ Information operations precede kinetic operations. This pattern is consistent with how Russia prepared narratives in the lead-up to the 2014 and 2022 elections. Baltic exposure deserves a watch.
Finland's President Stubb has a plan for the liberal world order: A shared golf relationship with Trump has given Stubb unusual access. His calm realism on Arctic security and transatlantic tension is worth understanding. Watch his interview with David Rennie, The Economist’s geopolitics editor, at the Munich Security Conference to explain his approach to diplomacy, disagreement, and the changing world order. Economist
Giorgia Meloni's mission: Playing bridge between Trump and Europe: WSJ reports Italy's leader is trying to prevent the transatlantic rift from becoming a permanent divorce—even as European voters sour on the alliance.
+ Meloni is the most strategically positioned European leader right now—credible to both Washington and Brussels. Companies managing government relations across the Atlantic should watch her as a signal of where the middle ground lies.
Poland extends war reparations campaign to Russia: FT reports Warsaw has already sought €1.3tn from Germany and is now adding Russia to its ledger.
Germany's population shrinking faster than expected: The Ifo Institute revised Germany's population down from 85m to 83m, with a 12% decline expected in the working-age population over 25 years.
+ Labor market and pension pressure ahead—and a structural argument for AI-driven productivity investment.
Japan plans $36 billion in US investments under Trump administration deal: WSJ reports the first tranche of Japan's $550 billion commitment includes a $33 billion gas plant in Ohio, a deepwater crude export facility in the Gulf, and a synthetic diamond manufacturing facility.
+ This is what a successful Trump trade negotiation looks like: visible, investable commitments that generate domestic jobs. For the US energy infrastructure and critical minerals sectors, Japanese capital is becoming a significant new variable.
US and Taiwan ink trade pact to slash tariffs and bolster semiconductor supply chains: Semafor reports the agreement is a "needed boost" to US-Taiwan ties as China hawks worry the Trump administration is softening its commitments to Taipei.
+ The semiconductor supply chain just got a degree of formal backing it didn't have yesterday. For tech companies managing Taiwan-exposed supply chains: this reduces—but does not eliminate—the vulnerability. China's reaction will be the watch item.
US to deploy more cutting-edge missile systems to the Philippines: The Straits Times reports both Washington and Manila committed to increasing US deployments of "cutting-edge missile and unmanned systems."
+ The South China Sea deterrence architecture is being reinforced in real time. This accelerates the de-risking calculus for companies with China-dependent manufacturing.
US faces 'decade-long' road to loosening China's grip on rare earths: Nikkei reports refining remains the critical hurdle even as Washington deploys billions and builds Asian partnerships.
+ The upstream mining problem is solvable. The downstream refining bottleneck is not in the near term. Supply chain resilience planning that doesn't account for this gap is incomplete.
Beijing offers 53 African countries tariff-free access: Semafor reports that China will scrap tariffs for 53 African countries from May 1, moving in the opposite direction from US trade policy.
+ China is systematically locking in African trade relationships while the US raises barriers. For companies operating in or sourcing from Africa, the competitive landscape for Chinese players just improved. Eswatini—which recognizes Taiwan—is the only country excluded.
Macron's India charm offensive: $30 billion Rafale deal on the table: AFP reports Macron is in Mumbai to close a 114-jet Rafale sale and deepen defense, tech, and trade ties with Delhi.
+ France is executing a sophisticated pivot—using defense hardware to pull India closer to Europe, away from its historic Russian supplier relationship, and offering an alternative to US F-35 dependency. India is buying leverage, not just jets.
India warns over AI's threat to its youth workforce: Semafor reports India's chief economic advisor warned the country must create 8 million jobs a year to sustain expansion, but coding and call-center jobs (its core exports) are highly AI-vulnerable.
+ Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei acknowledged the brief window of human-AI productivity partnership directly at the New Delhi summit.
+ For companies with Indian technology outsourcing relationships: start modeling the transition now.
Canada is embracing Asia to preserve its auto heartland: Bloomberg reports that Canada is courting Chinese EV investment and restructuring trade policy as Detroit automakers cut Canadian production.
+ This is a pivotal signal for Detroit. Canada is doing what was unthinkable 15 months ago: inviting BYD and Chery into its auto industry. GM, Ford, and Stellantis are rapidly losing leverage in Ottawa.
+ The US-Canada auto supply chain that has existed since the 1960s is being renegotiated in real time—not at a negotiating table, but through investment decisions.
+ Industry Minister Joly has threatened to go after GM and Stellantis for money, accusing them of breaking past subsidy commitments after cutting Ontario jobs.
A data leak at the Abu Dhabi Finance Summit exposes politicians and business leaders: FT reports that personal documents, including the passports of hundreds of ADFW attendees, were found online.
+ Elite information security remains a persistent vulnerability. Board vetting and conference security protocols need to be reviewed.
Peru ousts its eighth president in ten years: WSJ, NYT, FT all report Congress removed interim President José Jerí—four months into his tenure—for failing to disclose meetings with a Chinese businessman.
+ The China connection is the detail that matters. Peru's political fragility is well established; what's new is that the disclosure of foreign national relationships is now a trigger for impeachment. For companies operating in Latin America, Chinese business relationships are increasingly politically toxic, not just commercially complex.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Anthropic vs. the Pentagon—and it's getting ugly: Axios reports Defense Secretary Hegseth is "close" to designating Anthropic a "supply chain risk"—the same classification used for foreign adversaries—over its refusal to allow Claude to be used for mass surveillance or autonomous weapons without human oversight.
+ This is the most significant corporate-government AI standoff in US history. Anthropic's Claude is currently the only AI model in classified military systems.
+ The Pentagon's position is that Anthropic's ethical guardrails are "unacceptable." Anthropic's position is that it won't allow its technology to fire weapons without human involvement or surveil Americans en masse.
+ Every company using AI in government contracts needs to understand: this fight is going to define the terms of the entire industry's relationship with the defense sector. Palantir—which sits in the middle as a contractor—is immediately exposed.
+ WP editorial on AI and automation ran the same day. The convergence of Pentagon pressure and public debate about AI's reach is not coincidental.
AOC stumbles on Taiwan at Munich—a warning signal for the 2028 left: NYT Magazine's Ross Barkan frames the fumble clearly: she couldn't answer a yes-or-no question on US defense of Taiwan. For a potential 2028 contender, this is a gap that matters.
+ Foreign policy credibility is a real prerequisite for the presidency. AOC performed well in Munich on most fronts—but the Taiwan moment reveals the left hasn't fully worked through its China-security framework. Watch how she course-corrects. That correction will define her viability.
Jesse Jackson dies at 84: WP, NYT, WSJ, Politico all mark the passing of the civil rights leader and two-time presidential candidate.
+ Jackson's 1984 campaign created the template for coalition-based insurgent Democratic candidacies—every left-of-center primary challenge since has operated in his shadow. His death closes a chapter of Democratic Party history that directly shaped the political infrastructure AOC, Bernie Sanders, and others have inherited.
DHS spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin exits Trump administration: Politico notes the departure comes as public opinion has shifted on the administration's immigration policies.
+ Communication staff turnover at DHS is a signal of internal tension around the policy's political sustainability. Watch for messaging recalibration on immigration ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Britain's monarchy can't escape the Epstein shadow: WSJ, The Times, and WP all advance the story as new email evidence deepens questions about Prince Andrew's ongoing relationship with Epstein after the "cut ties" date.
+ The Epstein network continues to generate political and reputational exposure for global elites. Board vetting standards should account for this.
+ Hillary Clinton has called for Andrew to testify before Congress; the Clintons are due to give their own testimony next week.
New Mexico launches investigation into Epstein's Zorro Ranch: The Times reports legislators are examining claims about deaths at the property. This is no longer just a financial or trafficking story.
Warren Buffett slashes Amazon stake by 75%, builds position in NYT Co.
+ The Amazon reduction is the headline; the New York Times investment is the signal.
+ Buffett is betting on legacy media brand value at a moment when trust in information is becoming a strategic asset.
Obama oral history: he didn't see Trump coming: NYT publishes a new oral history documenting how Obama's team missed the country's shifting mood.
+ His advisers describe Trump as a "con man" and "clown"—language that reveals how badly the Democratic establishment misread the 2016 environment.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
Anthropic/Pentagon standoff: The AI governance fault line breaks open. The core issue: Anthropic refuses to allow Claude to be used for autonomous weapons or mass surveillance of Americans. The Pentagon, under Hegseth, considers those terms "unacceptable."
+ Every AI company with government contracts needs to assess where its own terms of service create similar exposure. This isn't just Anthropic's problem.
Meta deepens Nvidia ties with pact for 'millions' of chips: FT, Bloomberg reports Meta has committed to Nvidia's Grace CPUs and Blackwell/Vera Rubin AI accelerators in a multiyear deal.
+ Nvidia continues to consolidate its position as the infrastructure layer of the AI economy. The companies developing competing hardware—Meta included—are also the largest buyers of Nvidia's products. That dependency is structural, not temporary.
Apple is developing a trio of AI wearables: Smart glasses, camera AirPods, and a pendant. The wearable AI form factor race is accelerating.
+ Apple's three-track strategy positions it across every price point and use case in ambient computing.
Google and CTC Global launch an AI-driven grid optimization product that can increase grid capacity by up to 120% through existing power lines—without adding new generation.
+ For energy infrastructure investors: this is the kind of technology that changes the economics of the AI power buildout.
Ford's Universal EV Platform: competing on physics, not marketing: Ford's skunkworks team in California has developed a midsize pickup starting at $30,000, launching next year—20% fewer parts, 50 additional miles of range from aerodynamics alone. CEO Jim Farley frames it directly: "This is how we will compete and win against China."
+ For Detroit and the broader US auto industry: this is the most credible response to Chinese EV competition that any US OEM has produced. Watch the launch closely.
EV carmakers register $65 billion in write-offs globally: Semafor reports the US's elimination of the $7,500 federal tax credit in September accelerated industry-wide restructuring. Companies are reverting to gas-powered vehicle production.
+ The US pivot away from EVs is real and measurable. Supply chain players who positioned heavily for all-EV timelines need to reassess. Hybrid remains the durable middle ground.
Palantir relocates headquarters to Miami, Florida.
+ The symbolism is intentional. Miami has become the default landing zone for companies signaling alignment with the current political environment in Washington. Palantir's government business depends on those relationships.
Warner reopens talks with Paramount after sweetened offer: WSJ reports Warner's board has given Paramount a seven-day window. The media consolidation wave continues.
OpenAI and Anthropic deals power Abu Dhabi's $100 billion AI bet: Bloomberg reports MGX plans to spend up to $10 billion annually on AI infrastructure over the next several years.
+ Gulf sovereign wealth is becoming a major structural force in AI infrastructure buildout. This capital operates on longer time horizons and faces fewer political constraints than US or European institutional investors.
Spain to probe X, Meta, TikTok over AI-generated child sexual abuse material: The Spanish government has ordered prosecutors to investigate. European regulatory pressure on big tech is multi-fronted and accelerating.
*** Culture ***
Chinese kung-fu robots steal the show at Lunar New Year gala—watched by 600 million viewers: Le Monde reports CCTV's annual gala served as a showcase for China's robotics and AI advances.
+ This is soft power deployment at scale. Six hundred million viewers—the world's most-watched annual broadcast—and China used the moment to showcase technological capability, not cultural heritage. The message to global audiences: China's AI and robotics advances are real, they are national priorities, and they are being normalized as sources of pride. US tech leadership cannot be assumed.
Why your most creative ideas come after a night of sleep: WP reports REM sleep meaningfully improves problem-solving. For executives running on limited sleep during high-intensity periods—note taken.
*** Sport ***
One tiny country dominates the Winter Olympics—again: Norway, with the population of Minnesota, is racking up gold medals at Milan-Cortina. The WSJ explores the infrastructure, culture, and investment model behind consistent dominance.
+ The Norwegian model—long-term investment in youth development, elite infrastructure, and the cultural normalization of elite sport—is a competitive-advantage framework. The countries that win consistently aren't the richest. They're the most systematically invested.
Russian and Belarusian athletes permitted to compete under national flags at 2026 Paralympics: Le Monde reports that six Russian and four Belarusian athletes have been cleared to compete under their own flags in Milan-Cortina. Ukraine's Paralympic Committee is "very angry and outraged."
+ The IPC's decision fractures the unified Western position that sports governing bodies maintained post-Ukraine invasion. For companies sponsoring Paralympic athletes or the Games: reputational exposure requires a clear public position.
Athletes from Africa push for Winter Olympics inclusion: Six skiers representing Jamaica, Kenya, Eritrea, Madagascar, South Africa, and Benin gathered in Bormio to advocate for greater access.
+ The geography of elite winter sport is narrowing. The IOC's long-term sustainability depends on genuine global inclusion—not just symbolic. Watch how this pressure translates into structural program investment.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Global Daily | February 18
