Caracal Global Daily
February 19, 2026
Sundance, UT
Here's what a Chief Geopolitical Officer should be monitoring today.
Hiatus alert: Caracal Global Daily will be off next week. Marc will attend and curate Brigadoon @ Sundance Mountain Resort 2026. Back Monday, March 2.
*** Three issues Caracal Global is watching today ***
#1 US positions for possible Iran strikes as nuclear talks collapse: Military action against Iran is no longer hypothetical—energy markets, Strait of Hormuz transit, and Gulf supply chains face acute near-term disruption risk.
Why this matters: Energy procurement teams are modeling supply-shock scenarios this week; companies with Gulf operations are activating existing contingency protocols immediately.
#2 Geneva Russia-Ukraine talks end after two hours with no breakthrough: No ceasefire framework is imminent—European operational uncertainty is structural, not transitional, through at least mid-2026.
Why this matters: European ops teams extend risk-planning horizons through Q4; update contingency reviews for Eastern European logistics and defense procurement partners.
#3 Trump approval ratings hit second-term lows across every major poll: A politically weakened president heading into midterms signals volatility in tariff policy, regulatory priorities, and legislative capacity through November.
Why this matters: Government affairs teams war-game post-midterm legislative scenarios now; CFOs build policy flexibility into 2027 planning cycles.
*** Ross Rant ***
No Ross Rant today. Go watch Russia 1985–1999: TraumaZone.
Here's the trailer.
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
Talks break in Geneva with no end to Russia's war or hard-line demands: WP reports after two hours of American-led negotiations, Russian delegation head Vladimir Medinsky called talks "difficult but businesslike" while Zelensky accused Moscow of deliberate stalling.
Russia is not negotiating—it's performing negotiation. Two hours across two days signals zero intent to compromise. For companies with European manufacturing, logistics, or energy exposure, the war's economic drag on Europe continues into 2026, with no exit ramp in sight. Ukraine's railway system, now reinforced with armored locomotives and anti-drone jamming tools, signals Kyiv is building for a long fight—not a settlement.
German general says Trump 'erratic' as fears of Russian attack grow: The Times reports Major General Wolf-Jürgen Stahl warns Putin may be preparing military aggression against NATO and that Europe faces turbulence as alliances are strained.
When German generals go on record calling the US president "erratic," the alliance is in structural trouble. NATO's deterrence model requires US credibility. That credibility is now publicly contested by allies themselves. European defense spending is accelerating—and European companies are making procurement decisions without waiting for Washington.
United States and Iran at impasse; US gathers most air power in Mideast since 2003: DW, WSJ, and NYT report nuclear negotiations ended without a breakthrough as carrier groups and strike assets position across the region. Trump has not ordered strikes—but has not ruled them out.
This is the most significant near-term supply chain risk in today's newsletter. Strait of Hormuz transit—roughly 20% of global oil flow—is one presidential decision away from disruption. For energy executives: model the scenario. For manufacturers with Gulf supply exposure: identify alternatives now. The diplomatic window is narrowing.
Trump reverses on the Chagos Islands; warns the UK not to cede Diego Garcia: FT, Le Monde, and DW report that the US president has reversed earlier support for the UK-Mauritius handover, citing the base's potential role in an Iran strike scenario. London stood by the agreement.
US-UK alignment on one of the most strategically significant Indian Ocean bases is now publicly fractured. The timing—explicitly tied to Iran's military positioning—makes this more than a bilateral real estate dispute. Companies with exposure to Indian Ocean logistics should watch this closely.
Trump's Board of Peace pledges $5 billion for Gaza; Pope snubs it; Europe stays at arm's length: WSJ, Politico, and Le Monde report the new body meets Thursday in Washington. Hamas must disarm first. The EU sent observers, not members—only Hungary and Bulgaria accepted seats.
Five months after the ceasefire, the Board of Peace has delivered no tangible results and faces institutional skepticism from the Vatican, most of Europe, and the UN. Hamas has shown no interest in disarming. The gap between announcement and reality is widening—and that gap is a business risk for any firm planning Middle East infrastructure investment.
As Israel takes steps to claim West Bank land, the US stands by: WP reports Britain and others condemned the moves at a UN Security Council meeting. Trump has opposed formal annexation—but has not acted to prevent it.
The trajectory of the West Bank is toward de facto annexation, regardless of formal US policy. Companies operating in the region or managing government relationships with Arab states need to factor this into political risk frameworks. The international legal environment surrounding this territory is deteriorating.
North Korea unveils nuclear-capable rocket launchers ahead of rare party congress: DW and Bloomberg report Kim Jong Un showcased dozens of new systems he called "the most powerful in the world"—virtually indistinguishable in precision and power from ballistic missiles. The Ninth Congress of the Workers' Party will produce a new five-year economic plan and nuclear deterrence roadmap.
North Korea is signaling before negotiating. The party congress will lay out Kim's terms for any Trump engagement. Watch for nuclear posture language emerging from the congress—it will define the parameters of any diplomatic opening and calibrate the risk environment across Northeast Asia.
Analysis: Isolated Xi directly presses for soldiers' loyalty amid ongoing military purges: Nikkei reports the supreme leader can no longer trust generals as PLA purges continue.
Xi's inability to trust his own military is the defining corporate risk signal for China right now. Combine this with the CIA's recent public recruitment of disillusioned PLA officers, and you have a command structure under deep internal stress. For anyone modeling Taiwan scenarios or Chinese military posture: factor in command dysfunction, not just capability.
+ IMF calls on China to cut industrial subsidies in half—FT reports international pressure on Beijing's economic model is intensifying as trade tensions with Europe persist.
Xi tries to bully Trump on Taiwan arms sales: WSJ Editorial writes Beijing is pressing hard to delay or dilute a pending US arms sale to Taipei.
Beijing is reading Trump's transactional instincts correctly: if it can offer enough—economically or diplomatically—it may succeed in weakening US
commitments to Taiwan's defense. For tech and semiconductor companies: Taiwan's security calculus is shifting in real time. Don't plan around the status quo.
OpenAI partners with Tata Group in India on AI infrastructure: WSJ and The Economist report a 100MW data center (expandable to 1GW at $35-50B) anchors the partnership—even as India remains a bystander in frontier AI development despite hosting a global AI summit.
India is building AI infrastructure, but it cannot be filled with domestically-built models. Tata's OpenAI partnership makes it an importer of intelligence, not a producer. For companies building AI operations in India, the ecosystem is structurally import-dependent. Govern your partnerships accordingly.
Ceasefire in eastern DR Congo raises cautious hopes; US critical minerals interest could help it hold: DW reports that the Washington Accords ceasefire is set to begin. Analysts remain skeptical.
US interest in Congolese critical minerals—particularly for EV battery supply chains—is the variable that could make this ceasefire durable where others have failed. Watch whether economic engagement follows the diplomatic push. That sequence is the tell.
Peru names fifth president in five years; US military commander makes surprise visit to Venezuela: Bloomberg reports Peruvian lawmakers selected left-wing lawmaker José María Balcázar as interim president—the fourth since 2021's election. Separately, Marine General Francis Donovan met Venezuelan officials, including Diosdado Cabello, to discuss counternarcotics, terrorism, and migration, with Nicolas Maduro now in US custody awaiting trial.
Latin America's political instability is structural, not cyclical. Peru's fifth president signals no governance stabilization in sight. Venezuela is being reset by direct US military engagement—watch for how Maduro's trial affects regional dynamics and whether Caracas offers concessions in exchange for any political accommodation.
France: activist's death triggers political tensions ahead of elections; American investor confidence deteriorates: NYT and Le Monde report that the beating death of Quentin Deranque has become a far-right/far-left flashpoint ahead of local elections next month and presidential elections next year. Separately, 77% of American companies in France report they don't trust the government's ability to implement structural reforms.
France is becoming harder to operate in. Political polarization, declining investor confidence, and street politics create a volatile operating environment as a two-year election cycle begins. Companies with French operations should elevate their engagement with government relations now—before election dynamics freeze access.
Gabon blocks social media; Spain maneuvers for ECB influence: Gabon suspended Meta, YouTube, and TikTok following the coup government's claims of threats to public order. Spain is positioning for an influential ECB executive board seat amid speculation Christine Lagarde may depart before her 2027 term ends.
Two signals: Gabon's blackout fits an accelerating pattern of post-coup governments using platform suppression to consolidate control—a risk template for sub-Saharan Africa operations. Spain's ECB maneuvering signals European monetary policy succession battles are beginning earlier than expected. Watch who backs whom.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Trump keeps getting less and less popular: NY Mag reports every major polling firm—Reuters-Ipsos (minus-22), AP-NORC (minus-26), Morning Consult (minus-12), NBC News (minus-22), Quinnipiac (minus-19)—now shows Trump at second-term lows.
A president at minus-22 heading into a midterm year is a president who loses the House. That is the planning assumption on which government affairs teams should operate. Tariff policy, the regulatory agenda, and executive action capacity all look very different in a split Congress. Model it now—not in September.
Inflation is down, but Americans still feel an affordability squeeze: Bloomberg reports that consumer delinquencies have reached their highest level in nearly a decade, even as headline inflation cools, with food, housing, and utility costs still elevated.
The political economy of 2026 is stagflationary in feel if not in technical measurement. Consumers are tapped out and increasingly borrowing to cover essentials. This is the environment in which companies are trying to pass through tariff-driven cost increases. The margin compression is real—and it's political.
'Woke' AI feud escalates between Pentagon and Anthropic: WSJ reports the Defense Department may require contractors to certify they don't use Anthropic's Claude. NYT and Le Monde cover Dario Amodei's rare public acknowledgment of White House disagreements over AI regulation and military use.
Anthropic is in a genuinely precarious position—pushing back on a politicized Pentagon while trying to maintain enterprise credibility. For companies using Anthropic tools in defense-adjacent work: watch whether contractor certification requirements materialize. For the broader AI procurement landscape, political alignment is becoming an enterprise risk variable. This is new terrain.
Meta begins $65 million election push to advance AI agenda: NYT reports Meta is targeting state legislatures in Texas and Illinois first, seeking to preempt state-level AI regulation.
The AI regulatory battle is moving to the states. Meta's investment signals federal preemption is not guaranteed—and that AI governance will be fragmented across jurisdictions. For technology legal and compliance teams: map state-level AI legislation exposure now, before Meta's campaign reshapes the battlefield.
Donald Trump's AI push fuels revolt in MAGA heartlands: FT reports Republican incumbents fear constituent backlash against the White House AI agenda could hurt them in the midterms.
AI is fracturing the Republican coalition in an unexpected direction. Rural MAGA voters see AI as a jobs threat, not a growth driver. This signals that bipartisan opposition to AI may be growing from quarters the industry didn't anticipate. Adjust legislative strategy accordingly.
Trump Organization trademarks 'Donald J. Trump International Airport': NYT reports the move was made to protect the brand as Florida prepares to rename an airport after the president.
Presidential brand + public infrastructure = governance conflict of interest that will generate litigation and political attention throughout the term. Watch which other infrastructure projects enter the Trump brand pipeline.
Bowser declares Potomac sewage spill emergency; Trump 'worried' about smell for 250th celebrations: WP and USA Today report DC's mayor declared an emergency and sought federal aid as the president flagged concern about the sewage situation affecting America's 250th anniversary events.
Infrastructure failure at the nation's capital—timed to a major national commemoration—is an embarrassment that generates political attention regardless of party. Watch how federal-local coordination plays out under DOGE-era budget constraints. The optics window for the 250th is closing.
The Republican governor getting under Trump's skin: WSJ reports Oklahoma's Kevin Stitt has weathered criticism from the president ahead of the governors' White House meeting.
Intra-Republican friction between governors and the White House is a pattern worth tracking. State executives are beginning to protect their own political brands from association with an unpopular president. Watch how many governors in competitive states start putting distance between themselves and Washington.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
Zuckerberg takes the stand in landmark social media addiction trial; overruled 18 wellbeing experts on beauty filters: WSJ, NYT, FT, and Le Monde cover the first of 1,600+ lawsuits alleging Meta's platforms are addictive. Zuckerberg testified that he regrets the slow pace of age verification and was pressed about internal decisions that prioritized engagement over safety.
This trial is a legal inflection point for every platform company. If Meta loses, Section 230 protections that have shielded tech from product liability face direct challenge. The disclosure that Zuckerberg overruled 18 internal well-being experts creates a paper trail that plaintiffs will use across all 1,600 cases. For tech executives: your internal deliberations on user safety are now discovery targets.
UK to require tech firms to remove revenge porn within 48 hours; Europe follows Australia's youth-ban model: The Times, FT, and DW report that the UK's new powers include fines of up to 10% of global revenue and potential service bans for repeat offenders. Germany and other EU nations are advancing similar measures modeled on Australia's youth social media restrictions.
The regulatory wave is coordinating across jurisdictions faster than most compliance teams are tracking. The UK, EU, and Australia are moving in tandem on platform liability, youth access, and content removal timelines. A multi-jurisdictional compliance stress test is now baseline planning—not contingency.
OpenAI funding on track to top $100 billion; AI market built on circular deals raises concern: Bloomberg reports OpenAI's latest round—anchored by Amazon, SoftBank, Nvidia, and Microsoft—could push valuation above $850 billion. A separate Bloomberg report flags growing alarm that the trillion-dollar AI boom is propped up by interconnected transactions among the same players.
The circular deal structure is the risk. When the same companies are simultaneously investors, customers, and infrastructure providers for each other, valuations reflect relationship networks more than independent market validation. For PE firms and investors deploying into AI: scrutinize deal structures for circularity before committing capital. This unwind, when it comes, will be fast.
+ Saudi Arabia's Humain invested $3B in Elon Musk's xAI. Abu Dhabi's MGX is backing both OpenAI and Anthropic as part of a $100B AI bet. Sovereign wealth capital is flooding the same circular ecosystem from multiple directions.
Millennials melted their brains with screens. Their kids want none of it: Bloomberg reports Gen Alpha is increasingly gravitating toward physical products—graphic novels, CDs, screen-free audio players—as parents actively limit smartphone access.
The Gen Alpha consumer shift is a product opportunity and a platform risk. Physical media, offline experiences, and hardware alternatives to smartphones are seeing genuine sales increases. For consumer brands: the anti-screen trend is early but real. For platform companies, their next user cohort is being raised to distrust them.
Deutsche Bahn cyberattack disrupts German rail; French Economy Ministry reports 1.2 million bank accounts compromised: DW and Le Monde report back-to-back infrastructure cyberattacks in Europe—Germany's national rail operator and France's economy ministry in the same week.
Two major European infrastructure attacks in one week are not a coincidence—it's a pattern. Rail systems and government financial infrastructure are priority targets. For companies with European operations: audit vendor and government-connected data exposure now. This is escalating.
eBay to buy Depop from Etsy for $1.2 billion: WSJ reports the deal expands eBay's Gen Z reach. Etsy paid $1.6B in 2021—a $400M correction in four years.
Etsy overpaid at peak e-commerce enthusiasm; eBay buys the distressed asset at a discount. The secondhand fashion market remains structurally strong even as platform consolidation shakes out the overvalued. Watch whether eBay can convert Depop's Gen Z users into its broader marketplace without killing the culture.
US restaurants downsize meals to counter anti-obesity drugs and affordability crisis: FT reports GLP-1 drug adoption and consumer budget pressure are simultaneously compressing restaurant portion demand from both directions.
Two structural forces are reshaping unit economics for food and beverage companies—and neither is temporary. This is not a menu adjustment. It's a fundamental reset of volume and pricing assumptions that requires a strategic response, not an operational tweak.
Gen Alpha is helping revive China's struggling malls: Bloomberg reports Shanghai's Super Brand Mall and peers are retooling around children's play areas, theaters, and family experiences as e-commerce hollows out adult retail traffic. Chinese parents now spend over $800 billion annually on children.
China's domestic consumption recovery is being driven by child-focused spending, not by the broad consumer rebound expected post-COVID. For retail and consumer brands in China, the growth channel is youth and family. Adjust product and channel strategy accordingly—this is durable.
The world is on an AI path to disaster, a former Google executive warns. The Times reports that Dex Hunter-Torricke predicts AI-enabled elite luxury and diminished prospects for the majority—unless governments adapt quickly.
The mainstream conversation about AI risk is shifting from abstract safety debates to concrete questions about who benefits. This framing will gain political traction as AI job displacement becomes visible in swing districts. For corporate AI teams: the narrative environment around AI deployment is changing faster than your stakeholder communications strategy.
*** Culture ***
With 'Coutures,' Alice Winocour explores the fashion world with Angelina Jolie—hospital drama, not satire: Le Monde reports the film trades industry mockery for intimate human complexity set backstage at fashion week.
Fashion week as a venue for vulnerability rather than spectacle reflects a broader cultural appetite for authenticity over aspiration. For luxury brand strategists: the cultural moment has shifted. Consumers—particularly Gen Z—are drawn to complexity and honesty. Aspiration-only positioning is increasingly misread.
*** Sport ***
New York Knicks owner explores splitting basketball and ice hockey franchises: FT reports that a potential separation of the Knicks and Rangers follows a busy year of corporate spin-offs.
Separating the Knicks from the Rangers would unlock separate valuation paths for two franchises that have performed very differently under the same ownership. The sports franchise as an unbundled financial asset continues to mature as an institutional investment thesis. Watch for sovereign wealth funds and PE as natural buyers if either comes to market.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Global Daily | February 19
