Caracal Global Daily
February 20, 2026
Sundance, UT
Here's what a Chief Geopolitical Officer should be monitoring today.
Hiatus alert: Caracal Global Daily will be off next week. Marc will attend and curate Brigadoon @ Sundance Mountain Resort 2026. Back Monday, March 2.
*** Three issues Caracal Global is watching today ***
#1 Trump gives Iran 10-15 days — strike window opens this weekend: Two aircraft carriers, fighter jets, and refueling assets are in position; military capability exists now, with or without a diplomatic breakthrough.
Why this matters: Energy teams model Strait of Hormuz disruption scenarios against Q2 supply and pricing immediately; Middle East ops activate contingency protocols.
#2 Former Prince Andrew arrested — Epstein exposure reaches the monarchy: Britain faces its worst constitutional crisis in a century; the arrest signals the Epstein network exposure wave is accelerating across Western elite institutions, not slowing.
Why this matters: Board vetting and government relations teams audit executive exposure to Epstein-linked networks; UK-heavy companies assess reputational and operational risk from institutional instability.
#3 Trump mulls North American trade pact without Canada — USMCA unraveling: Excluding Canada would reshape North American supply chains and bilateral investment calculus across every sector with cross-border operations.
Why this matters: Companies with Canadian exposure are now running USMCA exit scenarios; legal teams are assessing contract exposure under a potential bilateral US-Mexico framework.
*** Ross Rant ***
No Ross Rant today. Go watch The American Revolution by Ken Burns.
Here's the trailer.
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
Trump gives Iran 10-15 days to make a deal or 'bad things will happen': This is the highest-stakes geopolitical moment of 2026 so far. Trump is not bluffing on military posture — the hardware is in place for either a sustained campaign or a limited initial strike designed to drive Tehran to the table. The operational constraint: Saudi Arabia and the UAE won't grant US aircraft access to their airspace, forcing warplanes to base farther away in Jordan and rely more on aerial refueling. That's a complication, not a dealbreaker.
+ Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met indirectly with Iran's top diplomat in Geneva on Tuesday. Iran's atomic energy chief says no country can deprive the Islamic Republic of its enrichment rights. The clock is running.
Trump weighs limited initial strike to force Iran into nuclear deal: A limited early strike as leverage — not destruction — mirrors how Trump has deployed tariff escalation: signal, escalate incrementally, extract a deal. For energy executives: this is not an abstract scenario. Strait of Hormuz disruption can spike global oil prices within hours of a strike order.
The White House is too sure about Iran and oil prices: Javier Blas in Bloomberg writes the administration is misreading Tehran's risk tolerance by assuming the energy market will absorb another strike as cleanly as last year's. Energy Secretary Chris Wright credits 'energy dominance' for preventing a 2025 price spike after US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. That assumption carries serious risk — Iran could target regional energy infrastructure this time.
+ CEOs should not use 2025 price stability as their baseline for 2026 Iran scenarios. Model the tail risk.
As peace talks stall, Russia and Ukraine share one aim: Keep Trump happy. The peace process is no longer about terms — it's about managing Trump's attention span. Both sides are performing for an audience of one. Watch for Trump to make a unilateral move before the midterm politics crowd out his foreign policy window.
Trump is bringing Russia in from the cold: This is the clearest signal yet that sanctions relief is on the table as part of a broader Russia reset. Companies that exited Russia should be quietly modeling re-entry scenarios. Not because it's imminent — but because it's no longer unthinkable.
Starlink loss is a blow to Russian forces in Ukraine: Private commercial satellite infrastructure is now a strategic weapon in great power conflict. Watch how governments — US, European, and others — move to establish legal frameworks for commandeering or restricting private space assets in future conflicts.
+ CIA considered backing a Ukraine plot to blow up Nord Stream, per The Times. Der Spiegel reports that CIA officers were approached in spring 2022. The story's resurfacing is a signal — watch how it affects US-Germany relations.
Former Prince Andrew arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office: This is not a royal scandal — it's a systemic elite exposure event. The release of Epstein's email archive is forcing accountability across networks that have operated in the shadows for decades. King Charles said, 'The law must take its course.' Misconduct in public office carries a potential life sentence; legal hurdles are high, but the institutional damage is already done.
+ The arrest breaks a 379-year streak — no senior royal has faced criminal custody since the English Civil War era. The Economist reports republicans think their moment has come.
Bill Gates withdraws from India's AI Impact Summit amid Epstein scrutiny: The pattern is accelerating: Epstein exposure is now reshaping elite business and tech participation in major public events. Board vetting standards are tightening in real time. This is not a one-week story.
Trump's Board of Peace opens with a $10 billion pledge and few details: Trump is building an alternative to the United Nations in real time, with a Gulf capital as its foundation. For multinationals: Gaza reconstruction is a real capital deployment opportunity over a multi-year horizon, but governance remains opaque. Watch which private-sector players align early to gain a positioning advantage.
Trump mulls a North American trade pact without Canada: This is the most significant threat to North American trade architecture since the renegotiation of NAFTA. Canada without USMCA loses its most important trade lever. For manufacturers with cross-border operations, this is a scenario-planning emergency, not a background risk.
America imported a record amount last year despite sweeping tariff changes: Tariffs have redirected the trade deficit, not reduced it. The policy is failing on its stated terms. What this means: pressure for further escalation is building as the White House confronts inconvenient data — and the next response may be suppression, not adjustment.
Trump administration attacks Fed research on tariff costs: This is not an intellectual disagreement — it's a signal that the administration will suppress inconvenient economic data. CFOs should treat official tariff optimism as politically motivated and build independent models. The finding — that taxing imports raises their cost — is not partisan analysis.
+ FT reports midsize companies are facing soaring duty bills as Trump seeks to quell policy backlash. The tariff cost is real and asymmetric: large firms can absorb it; mid-market firms cannot.
The Donroe Doctrine's year of failure: Rahm Emanuel writes that far from securing a US sphere of influence in Latin America, the White House has pushed major regional economies toward the EU. The Mercosur-EU trade deal is signed. US transactionalism is producing the opposite of its intended effect in the Western Hemisphere. Watch how Europe leverages the deal as a counterweight to US pressure.
Trump's strategic incoherence in the Indian Ocean: John Bolton writes that Diego Garcia has served as a launch platform for every major Middle Eastern conflict over the past 30 years. Biden officials urged Britain to cede the Chagos Islands — home to this critical base — to Mauritius, a nation China is actively courting. Watch whether Trump reverses the deal or lets inertia carry it through.
North Korea opens key party congress: Timing matters: with Iran consuming US strategic attention, Pyongyang's nuclear agenda advances with minimal Washington focus. Watch the congress for signals on weapons posture and formal announcements of alignment with Moscow or Beijing.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Trump administration recruits tech bosses to train 'elite' government coders: This is DOGE's strategic successor — not dismantling government, but rebuilding it with Silicon Valley architecture. The Tech Force programme has partnered with Apple, Coinbase, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, xAI, and Palantir. Watch how this reshapes federal procurement, data access, and the competitive landscape for companies that rely on government contracting.
Trump's White House ballroom approved: Multiple outlets: America's Commission of Fine Arts — entirely Trump appointees — unanimously approved his plan to build a 90,000 square foot ballroom where the East Wing stood. Soft power signal: the Trump administration is literally reshaping the architecture of American political legitimacy. Watch how foreign governments read the physical transformation of the White House as a signal about the permanence of Trump-era institutional changes.
Democrats choose Spanberger to deliver State of the Union response: Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger — a centrist former congresswoman — signals the party's continued positioning toward the center ahead of 2028.
The beef industry has a message for consumers: Get used to high prices: US cattle herds are at their lowest level in 75 years. Trump administration measures have had little effect. High beef prices are structural, not cyclical — a persistent consumer cost pressure that feeds directly into inflation politics.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
Silicon Valley is building a shadow power grid for data centers: This is accelerating the bifurcation of the US power grid into public and private layers. For energy companies, data center power demand is now a competitive market, not a utility monopoly. For ESG-focused investors: private power plants mean emissions that bypass disclosure and regulatory frameworks.
Is an AI price war about to begin? June Yoon writes that China's Zhipu is marketing access to AI models at approximately $3 per month. US peers charge closer to $20 per month for consumer plans. This is the DeepSeek signal playing out in the market. AI commoditization is underway. For tech executives: differentiation must come from proprietary data and vertical integration — not raw model access.
Big AI is seizing the political moment before the backlash: Meta, OpenAI, and others are spending heavily on national and state/local politics before regulatory frameworks solidify. OpenAI president Greg Brockman became a major donor to a Trump PAC. The AI industry is buying its regulatory window—and it's finite. Understand which AI vendors carry political protection and which face exposure. This shapes partnership risk over the next 18 months.
Simile raises $100 million to build AI that predicts human behavior: The Stanford spinout trained its model on interviews with real people and historical transaction data. Use cases include predicting questions likely to be asked on earnings calls. Behavioral AI is emerging as a distinct category with specific applications in corporate communications and investor relations — watch this space.
Nvidia and OpenAI near $30 billion investment deal: The chipmaker is swapping last year's complex $100 billion framework for a cleaner $30 billion equity check. The simpler structure signals a maturing relationship — and Nvidia's interest in locking in strategic alignment with the leading model developer.
Nestlé exits ice cream, restructures around coffee, pet care, and nutrition: Full-year operating profits fell 8.4% to SFr 14.4 bn. The restructuring signals margin pressure in commodity-exposed consumer categories and the continued retreat of diversified food giants toward premium, high-margin verticals.
*** Culture ***
The global triumph of Nigerian fashion: Nigeria's styles are gracing red carpets and going viral on TikTok. Africa's cultural export profile is rising — and cultural influence precedes economic and political leverage. Companies building African market strategies should track where soft power momentum is building.
The billionaires behind Japan's cultural icons: From Hello Kitty to Demon Slayer, pop culture is now Japan's second-most-valuable export. Japan is executing a sophisticated soft power strategy through commercial cultural exports, comparable in impact to the US's entertainment dominance. Watch how this shapes Japan's trade and investment positioning in Asia.
*** Sport ***
Pressure builds on Wasserman to step down from LA Olympics leadership: The Epstein exposure wave is reaching the Olympics — two years out from LA28. Leadership instability creates operational and reputational risk for corporate sponsors already committed to the games. Watch whether Wasserman steps aside or fights it.
Chicago Bears take key step toward Indiana stadium move: Indiana passed a key measure to entice the NFL franchise to cross state lines — a divisive move reflecting intensifying state-level competition for major sports franchise economic anchors.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Global Daily | February 20
