Caracal Insider | Geoeconomics

Caracal Insider | Geoeconomics
July 24, 2017
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross


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IMF lower forecasts in US and UK: The IMF has lowered its forecasts for US economic growth this year but kept its global growth outlook unchanged for this year at 3.5% and next year at 3.6%. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF cut its US GDP forecast for 2017 to 2.1% from its previous outlook of 2.3%. Across the pond,  the IMF has cut its growth forecast for the UK by 0.3 percentage points, its first downgrade since the EU referendum in June 2016. 

China, EU, and Japan make up for slower US, say IMF: FT reports, large global upswing compensates for stalled Trump agenda and faltering UK.

President Michelle Bachelet of Chile is the only female head of government in the Americas.

This obscure NAFTA chapter could be Canada’s deal-breaker again https://goo.gl/v6fiHN

Poland’s president vetoes two laws to restructure courts: NYT reports, the decision by President Andrzej Duda was a surprising setback for the far-right governing party, which would have been given more control over the judiciary.

Today: UK International Trade Secretary Liam Fox will hold talks with US counterpart Robert Lighthizer - Fox open to importing "chlorinated chicken from the United States."

Sun’s out - A potential successor to Xi Jinping is purged:Economist reports, would he prefer to have no heirs-apparent? 

Xi tears up succession script with Chongqing shockerNikkei reports, Chinese president promotes yet another protege defying consensus candidates. 

Xi isn't messing around with his next term.

In China, herd of 'gray rhinos' threatens economy: NYT reports, several Chinese conglomerates are now so big, so complex and so indebted that the government is trying to bring them to heel.

The accounting standards and corporate governance supporting China's largest SOEs make Enron look sensible and serious.

Read = Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise https://goo.gl/Kuhgx7

@lindayueh: 60% of Chinese equities belong to the Chinese government, just 30% to private Chinese owners & 10% to foreigners

Silicon Valley giants confront new walls in China: NYT reports, just in the past few weeks, Facebook had one of its most popular apps blocked by the Chinese government. LinkedIn, the globe-spanning social network of résumés, job recommendations, and management essays, had its local boss step down amid tepid results in the country. And Apple announced a billion-dollar investment to comply with local law as it continued to watch Chinese demand for its iPhones fade.

When it comes to the technology and the internet business, China wants what America has. China has decided protectionism, subsidization, copy-n-clone, and harassment are the tools to make this happen. Silicon Valley has a long slough when it comes to fully accessing the consumers of the Middle Kingdom.

China races ahead in the Indian Ocean while India, Japan take baby steps: WSJ reports, Japan recently dispatched its largest warship to joint exercises in the Indian Ocean to signal its commitment to counter China’s expanding ambitions in the Indian Ocean, but its military cooperation with India is progressing slowly.

Trump curbs on steel risk trade war as ‘pandora’s box’ opens up https://goo.gl/vEnx3t

Prediction: Look for Trump to make an announcement on steel tariffs and restrictions when he visits "Steeltown, U.S.A." Youngstown, Ohio tomorrow.

US and China are letting slip the dogs of trade wars: Amid deteriorating relations, Washington is exchanging carrots for sticks. Nikkei - George Magnus

MR Commentary: America’s CEOs need to do more to reverse US-China trend https://goo.gl/SREh9s

Donald Trump is the odd man out with Putin and Xi: FT reports, China and Russia co-operate in areas posing a challenge to western interests.

@nktpnd: #NorthKorea will probably test another IBCM +/- 2 days of Thursday, July 27. 

Marc Ross

Based in Washington, DC, I specialize in thought leader communications and global public policy for public affairs professionals working at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.

Clients hire me to ghostwrite, engage influencer networks, manage media relations, produce events, audit their communications infrastructure, consult on hiring, provide issue briefs and news generating talking points, as well as manage end to end communications projects where I assume a role of project leader and general contractor.

I work independently but provided access to a substantial global network of collaborators with expertise in websites, graphic design, audio, video, polling, data analytics, and research.

Using the latest tactics of an American political campaign with expertise shaped by being a practitioner of global business communications, I help clients tell their story and build trusted relationships with all necessary stakeholders.

Successful communications are all about STOCK = strategy, tactics, organization, consistency, and know-how.

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