Memo: Election 2018 = Predictions + What to Watch For + Winner + Losers

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Election 2018 - What to Watch For = The Dirty Dozen:

1. Thirty-six gubernatorial seats are up for grabs this year, and Republicans must defend 26 of them.

2. For Democrats to take the House, they need to flip 23 seats. 

3. If Democrats retake the House, it will mark the third time in 12 years that the chamber switched control.

4. If Democrats win big in key governors’ races, say Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin and Michigan, Trump's Election 2020 path to victory just got a whole lot more difficult.

5. Nancy Pelosi to return as Speaker.

6. A record number of women in Congress.

7. A flurry of investigations and subpoenas.

8. Iran sanctions remain.

9. China trade frictions continue - there is bipartisan agreement on Capitol Hill for the US to stand tough against China.

10. Ben Wittes' cannon will be back in service.

11. Mueller has been in a pre-election “blackout” - he'll be back with new indictments - look for Roger Stone to be in the barrel soon.

12. Infrastructure spending will pass on Capitol Hill.

Predictions:

House = Democrats win control with 231 seats to 204 seats - a 36 seat gain for Team Nancy

Senate = 50-50 split with VP Pence breaking ties next session

Top Races Winners - Governors:

CO: Polis (D)
CT: Lamont (D
FL: Gillum (D)
GA: Runoff
IA: Hubbell (D)
KS: Kelly (D)
ME: Mills (D)
MI: Whitmer (D)
MN: Walz (D)
NV: Sisolak (D)
NH: Sununu (R)
NM: Grisham (D)
OH: Cordray (D)
OR: Brown (D)
SD: Noem (R)
WI: Evers (D)

Top Races Winners - Senate:

TX: Cruz (R)
ND: Cramer (R)
AZ: Sinema (D)
FL: Nelson (D)
IN: Braun (R)
MO: McCaskill (D)
MT: Tester (D)
NV: Rosen (D)
WV: Manchin (D)
TN: Bredesen (D)

Election 2018 Winners:

Andrew Gillum
Kristi Noem
WSJ + NYT + WaPo
Whole Foods
Suburbs
Women
Beto O'Rourke
Mitt Romney
Oprah Winfrey 

Election 2018 Losers:

Donald J. Trump
Team Trump
CNN + Fox News + MSNBC
NRA + Guns
Rural Towns
White Dudes
Ron DeSantis
Kris Kobach
Stephen Bannon

—Marc A. Ross

Marc A. Ross is the founder of Caracal Global and specializes in thought leader communications and events for senior executives working at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.

Marc Ross

Based in Washington, DC, I specialize in thought leader communications and global public policy for public affairs professionals working at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.

Clients hire me to ghostwrite, engage influencer networks, manage media relations, produce events, audit their communications infrastructure, consult on hiring, provide issue briefs and news generating talking points, as well as manage end to end communications projects where I assume a role of project leader and general contractor.

I work independently but provided access to a substantial global network of collaborators with expertise in websites, graphic design, audio, video, polling, data analytics, and research.

Using the latest tactics of an American political campaign with expertise shaped by being a practitioner of global business communications, I help clients tell their story and build trusted relationships with all necessary stakeholders.

Successful communications are all about STOCK = strategy, tactics, organization, consistency, and know-how.

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