Huawei, US-China Trade, Brexit Plan C, GOP Primary, Ketchup
Caracal Global Daily
January 29, 2019
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross
Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia
Caracal Global Daily = News + Analysis at the Intersection of Globalization + Disruption + Politics
TOP FIVE
✔️ US unveils criminal charges against Huawei
✔️ Another key Brexit vote
✔️ An Italian warning for France
✔️ Rumblings of a Republican primary challenge
✔️ What marketers can learn from a ketchup bottle
ROSS RANT
Let's communicate like it's 1979
Going back forty years, communications was pretty easy.
The communications environment was simple - it was one to many.
If you wanted the world to pay attention back then, you secured time on one of the few platforms that ensured your message would be broadcasted to the masses.
Today, such mass broadcast opportunities are infrequent. The communications environment is not so easy.
It matters what your audience prefers.
It matters where your audience is seeking information.
It matters how your audience is processing information.
It matters when your audience is accepting information.
To succeed in this new communications environment, focusing on strategy and organization more and tactics less will be fruitful.
Read more here: http://bit.ly/2UnzG3n
GLOBALIZATION
FT: US unveils criminal charges against Huawei
US Levels criminal charges against Huawei: WSJ reports, the Trump administration unveiled a sweeping set of criminal charges against China’s Huawei Technologies in its latest salvo against the telecom giant.
WP: Justice Dept. charges Huawei with fraud, ratcheting up U.S.-China tensions
LAT: Hopes riding high on US-China trade talks, but reality paints a dimmer outlook
Reuters: US' Mnuchin expects progress in 'complicated' China trade talks
Big divides remain as US-China trade talks resume: WSJ reports, Cabinet-level delegations from the U.S. and China will resume trade negotiations Wednesday, but early indications are that the two sides remain sharply divided, suggesting a hard slog ahead for a deal to be cut before a March 1 deadline.
NYT: US intelligence chiefs to outline threat of Chinese cyberspying
A Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on Tuesday is expected to touch on recent indictments against Chinese hackers, Beijing’s intelligence agents and Huawei.
Beyond China, the intelligence officials will most likely discuss the threats of North Korea and the Islamic State.
Way out of Brexit paralysis: WSJ reports, weeks after the Parliament resoundingly rejected Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan, British lawmakers will use a series of votes to try to break the stalemate over the terms of the UK’s divorce from the European Union.
Another key Brexit vote: British Prime Minister Theresa May faces votes in Parliament, with one of those attempting to put Brexit on hold, while another would send her back to Brussels to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement.
Dominique Moisi: An Italian warning for France: With Italy’s populist government supporting the “Yellow Vest” protests, France needs to understand how and why it has become the principal target of Italian criticism. Reckoning with this latest turn of events could help France to overcome its own internal divisions and prevent Italian-style populism from taking power in Paris.
Goldman and BlackRock among winners on Venezuelan bonds: FT reports, the possibility of Nicolás Maduro’s government falling has raised hopes among the country’s creditors.
US troops to Columbia to stabilize Venezuela? During a Monday White House press briefing national security adviser John Bolton was photographed carrying a notepad — presumably, as he was fresh out of a national security meeting — and one of the things which appears to be handwritten on the pad is "5,000 troops to Colombia."
John Harris: Davos elites fear they’re on a toboggan ride to hell: The global winners here in Switzerland aren’t so sure they’re up to the task of running the world anymore.
Stephen Roach: Warnings from the global trade cycle: The global trade cycle is facing major stress in 2019, downward revisions have just begun, and the risk of a major slowdown in world GDP growth cannot be minimized. In a still tightly connected world, no major economy will be an oasis.
DISRUPTION
Fintech: Venture capital-backed financial technology companies raised a record $39.57 billion from investors globally in 2018, up 120 percent from the previous year.
POLITICS
SOTU: Trump accepted House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s invitation to give his State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress on Feb. 5.
Who will be the first candidate to use a podcast to launch a presidential campaign and explain their policy positions?
Barton Swaim: Want to Be President? You better write a book: The defining quality of most campaign books is the author’s moral narcissism.
Howard Schultz's presidential rollout is a good reminder that cushy green rooms and well-mannered audiences is not the best training ground for blitzkrieg town halls and circus show audiences found on the American campaign trail.
WSJ - Editorial: Mike Bloomberg vs. Howard Schultz: How dare another billionaire decide to run for President?
FT: Howard Schultz’s presidential ambitions draw backlash
Critics try to keep former Starbucks chief from third-party run in 2020
Eugene Robinson: Howard Schultz is fully capable of winning the 2020 Election ... for Trump
"Just what we need, another ego-crazed billionaire with zero experience in government who thinks he is destined to be president. What could go wrong?"
USA Today - Howard Schultz OpEd: A third-party centrist candidate like me could win the presidency in 2020
"To become better, we must repair our broken two-party system. To those who say a third choice can't succeed, I say that's as un-American as you can get."
Burton defends working for Schultz: Bill Burton, a former adviser to President Barack Obama, defended his decision to join Howard Schultz’s team as the former Starbucks CEO considers an independent presidential bid in 2020, pushing back against suggestions that Schultz could be a spoiler,”
LAT: In Iowa debut, Kamala Harris lays out vision of big government
Joe Scarborough: Kamala Harris has what it takes: A party that produced a weakened nominee in 2016 has begun the 2020 cycle on a path that looks certain to produce a tougher political challenger than Trump has ever faced before.
Trump 2020: Rumblings of a Republican primary challenge: AFP reports, with approval ratings hovering around 40 percent -- even lower, according to some polls -- speculation is mounting that Trump could face a primary challenge for the Republican presidential nomination.
Majorities of independents (59%), women (64%) and suburbanites (56%) rule out supporting Trump for a second term.
Nearly 1 in 3 say Republicans would like to nominate someone other than Trump to be the party’s candidate for president.
Democrats’ 2020 presidential contest is wide open as danger mounts for Trump, poll shows: WP reports, a majority of Americans would “definitely” not vote for President Trump if the election were held today, but most Democratic voters were not able to say who should challenge him, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
OTD: Kansas joins the United States
COMMERCE
FT: PG&E files for bankruptcy protection to manage billions in liabilities
OTD: In 1886 Karl Benz patented the first car.
Bloomberg: E-scooter riders bang heads and break bones, but lawyers say suits are hard
Marriott Bonvoy is the company’s new travel program built on the belief that travel enriches its members and the world around them. Launching in February 2019, Marriott Bonvoy replaces Marriott Rewards, The Ritz-Carlton Rewards and Starwood Preferred Guest (SPG).
What marketers can learn from a ketchup bottle: At the turn of the millennium, ketchup had been around for 150 years. It had seemingly become a commoditized condiment. Heinz was the leader and had strong brand recognition, but was vulnerable to competition with lower prices or catchier marketing. According to innovation expert Amy Radin, author of The Change Maker’s Playbook, Heinz upended the staid ketchup market with an idea that was far from a breakthrough: the upside-down bottle.
SPORT
New York’s Gaming Commission took the first step toward legalizing sports betting on Monday.
Super party Super Bowl: Americans who plan to watch the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots in Super Bowl LIII Feb. 3 on CBS will spend a combined $14.8B on such items as food, drink, hosting parties, new TVs and tech equipment, sports apparel and other accessories, according to a survey conducted by the National Retail Foundation.
