Over the weekend, I found myself in a familiar conversation with friends: which movies are worth watching?
We had all seen Sentimental Value—the consensus was that it was the best movie of the year. But Marty Supreme and One Battle After Another divided the room fast. "Three hours I'm not getting back." "We stopped it after 20 minutes." When my friends asked whether I had seen 7 Days in Hell, I replied that I only watch serious films.
Snobby? Probably. But I have limited bandwidth and finite hours. I want to invest them in films on the film festival circuit.
So who is right?
Is it better not to waste time on films you find highfalutin and intentionally obscure? Or not to waste time on films you find sophomoric and pedestrian?
There is no correct answer. Both positions are rational. Both reflect genuine values and priorities. This "what films are you watching" conversation is a useful frame for understanding the world your business operates in right now.
Friedman's tension. Sutherland's insight.
In The Lexus and the Olive Tree, Thomas Friedman posed a simple but brutal question: What happens when the world's drive for prosperity collides with its need for identity?
The Lexus represents modernization — technology, trade, capital, and efficiency. The olive tree represents belonging — culture, religion, ethnicity, and sovereignty. Friedman's argument: both sides are rational. Both are inevitable. The friction between them defines every major conflict on the planet.
Rory Sutherland, in Alchemy, arrives at a complementary conclusion from a different direction. His core provocation: logic is overrated. Two people can look at the same situation, reach opposite conclusions, and both be right.
The CFO sees the cost. The CMO sees differentiation. The engineer sees the risk. The salesperson sees the opportunity. Same data. Different truths.
Sutherland's insight isn't that perception is irrational. It's that perception is the reality your customers, partners, and governments are acting on.
Put Friedman and Sutherland in the same room, and you get the operating environment for global business in 2026.
The world is full of correct answers from different perspectives.
The United States sees Taiwan as both a semiconductor chokepoint and a democratic ally worth defending. Beijing sees Taiwan as a historical wound and a non-negotiable sovereignty issue. Same island. Radically different truths.
Russia sees NATO expansion as an existential threat. The Baltic states see NATO expansion as a matter of survival. Saudi Arabia sees oil production as a source of economic leverage. Europe looks at the same barrel and sees energy vulnerability.
Nobody is hallucinating. Everyone is operating from a perception that is internally coherent and historically grounded.
This is the geopolitical condition your board needs to understand. The Lexus-and-olive-tree tension isn't merely an economic argument. It is a perception argument. Countries pursuing modernization and those protecting identity are both responding rationally to their own realities. This isn't a misunderstanding to resolve in a Geneva conference room. This is a structural condition that needs to be managed across your supply chain, government relationships, and communications strategy.
For business leaders, the implication is direct. When a foreign government makes a decision that looks irrational from your boardroom, it probably isn't. They are optimizing for a different variable. When a trade partner prioritizes sovereignty over efficiency, they mean it. When a population chooses the olive tree over the Lexus, that is not a policy mistake. That is a values hierarchy.
The most expensive assumption in global business is that your counterpart sees what you see.
They don't. And that gap is where geopolitical risk lives.
Tariff volatility. NATO credibility erosion. Supply chain disruption. Chinese competition. Accelerated warfare. AI and tech sovereignty. Export control tightening. Interest rate uncertainty. These aren't background noise. They're reshaping your capital allocation, supply chain strategy, and competitive positioning — right now.
Caracal Global serves as the fractional Chief Geopolitical Officer for Fortune 1,000 companies and private equity portfolio firms navigating this environment. We specialize in Globalization + American Politics, delivering Intelligence, Strategy, and Communications for senior executives who need to understand not just what is happening, but why every party at the table believes they are right. Need help understanding how you see the world? Email marc@caracal.global and let's get to work.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
How do you define wasting time?
