Last week, Spirit Airlines suspended operations, resulting in 17,000 job losses. Led by a swaggering art-of-the-deal ethos, the Trump administration had floated the idea of taking a 90% stake in the carrier. Instead, the White House let it collapse.
In August 2025, the Commerce Department paid $8.9 billion for a 10% stake in Intel.
The pattern is the story.
This White House has now taken direct equity stakes in at least ten US companies. Treasury is internally discussing whether to add equities to the Section 530A "Trump accounts" being marketed at Milken this week. The president himself proposed capping credit card interest rates last month, aligning with ultra-liberal and corporate-warrior Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) against the banks.
There has never been a US administration this active in the cap tables of private American business. Not under Franklin D. Roosevelt. Not during the auto bailouts. Not in the financial crash of 2008. The closest historical parallel is the Reconstruction Finance Corporation of the 1930s, and even that operated through structured loans rather than equity.
The cap table is now political
The mechanics matter less than the psychology. CEOs are operating in an environment where the federal government may walk into the boardroom as either savior or vulture.
Honda just abandoned its CAD$15 billion ($11 billion) Ontario EV plant, the second major Canadian EV cancellation since Prime Minister Mark Carney built his nation's industrial strategy around it. That Japanese auto capital is not redeploying to Ohio or Tennessee. It is sitting on the sidelines, waiting for clarity that may never come.
This is what the data is telling us. Investment paralysis is becoming the rational response.
Now layer the Iran war on top
The Strait of Hormuz remains contested.
Trump just paused US Navy escorts of neutral-flag ships, two days after announcing the program. Iran has hit at least 228 structures across US military assets in the region, per satellite imagery the Washington Post verified yesterday. US fuel exports are at record highs as Asia and Europe scramble for them. California gasoline is 36% above the national average. Diesel is feeding into inflation in food, housing, and freight. Major US airlines spent $5 billion on jet fuel in March alone, up 56% from the previous month.
Steve Cahillane, CEO of Kraft Heinz, told the Wall Street Journal yesterday that American consumers are running out of money at month's end. That is not a rhetorical flourish. It is a consumer goods CEO calibrating Q3 guidance.
What this means for the boardroom
This is the operating environment that Caracal Global maps for clients every day. What follows is not background noise. It is signal traffic your board needs translated into strategy.
First, the assumption that the federal government is a stable, predictable actor in your strategic environment is no longer operative. Supply chains, capital structure, pricing power, and labor markets are all subject to executive intervention with little or no warning. Your scenario planning needs to include the federal government as an active variable, not a backdrop.
Second, the war in Iran is not a regional conflict. It is a global commodity shock layered on an already fragmented trade architecture. If you have not modeled diesel sustained at current premium levels, jet fuel at 60% elevated benchmarks, or a Hormuz closure event lasting 30+ days, you are flying blind. The airlines and refiners are signaling. The food companies are signaling. The signal is not subtle.
Third, the political backdrop is hardening, not softening. Trump's Indiana primary sweep this week proved that his grip on the GOP base remains intact even as his national approval erodes. The map wars unleashed by the Supreme Court's gutting of the Voting Rights Act are reshaping House districts in Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, and South Carolina. The midterms will be fought on diesel prices and cap-table interventions. Polls and politicos believe the Democrats will take the House and have more impact in the Senate, but who knows? Six months to Election Day 2026 is an eternity in democracy.
Fourth, the rest of the world is moving without America. China stayed out of the Iran fight and gained leverage. Indonesia is signing defense deals with Australia and Japan in rapid succession. Japan just conducted its first overseas offensive missile test since World War II. Germany is exhausted. Britain may break apart by the end of the decade, and will certainly have a new PM by the end of summer.
Each of these is a separate signal.
Together, they describe a global order in which the belief in American steadiness and American common sense has evaporated, and the world is seeking new leadership.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc.
You can always reach me @ marc@caracal.global.
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Caracal Global
Tariff volatility. NATO credibility erosion. Supply chain disruption. Chinese competition. AI and tech sovereignty. Export control tightening. Interest rate uncertainty. Government and stakeholder engagement as a business necessity. They are reshaping your capital allocation, supply chain strategy, and competitive positioning right now. Your competitors are responding strategically.
Are you responding reactively?
Caracal Global is your fractional Chief Geopolitical Officer. We monitor geopolitical signals daily: tariff announcements, military movements, policy shifts, trade negotiations, export control changes, and competitive positioning. We translate those signals into what they mean for your business. And we help your board move from reaction to strategy.
Michigan-born, DC-based, operating at the intersection of globalization and American politics. Intelligence, Strategy, and Communications — for Fortune 1000 companies and PE portfolio firms that need geopolitical capacity without the overhead of a full-time hire.
Learn more at caracal.global.
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