There's a line buried in today's Bloomberg Hormuz analysis worth reading aloud in your next board meeting. The energy crisis triggered by the US-Israel conflict with Iran will get worse gradually, then suddenly.
That's Hemingway's formulation for bankruptcy. The parallel is intentional and exact.
Here's what the Strait of Hormuz looks like from a Chief Geopolitical Officer's seat right now. The military and diplomatic storylines are capturing most of the oxygen. Vice President Vance is reportedly worried the US is running dangerously low on weapons. Germany's Chancellor Merz says the US has been "humiliated" and has no convincing strategy. Iran is maneuvering for separate negotiating tracks — one for Hormuz, one for nuclear issues — and the Trump administration is skeptical of both. France is demanding major concessions at the UN. None of that is the story your board needs to be scenario-planning around.
The story is energy infrastructure. And it is moving faster than most corporate planning cycles can absorb.
Goldman Sachs now puts Brent crude at $90/barrel for Q4 as a base case. The most likely scenario is that the conflict extends into summer and oil hits $120. Asian refineries are already slashing jet fuel and diesel output because they cannot source crude at workable prices. Economist Michelle Brouhard warns that the aviation fuel situation is dire, and even more canceled flights will follow. In developing economies, the cascading effects will reach emergency services and basic utilities. Twenty thousand seafarers are stranded on cargo ships in the strait. UK Prime Minister Starmer is telling Britons to rethink their holidays and reconsider what they buy at the grocery store.
This is not a geopolitical story. It is a supply chain, energy procurement, and logistics story — and it is landing directly on Fortune 1,000 balance sheets.
Three things your leadership team should be doing this week.
First, stress-test your energy exposure — and not just your direct fuel costs. Model second and third-order effects: freight rate escalation, supplier disruption in Asia, logistics delays, and the cost of alternatives. If your scenario planning does not include a $120/barrel environment sustained through Q3, you are working from outdated assumptions.
Second, brief your board on timeline ambiguity. The diplomatic signals are contradictory, and there is no visible off-ramp. Iran wants a partial deal that preserves leverage. The Trump team is skeptical. Do not let your board assume this will be resolved in 30 days. That assumption is not supported by the evidence.
Third, map your most Iran-exposed counterparties. Airlines, shipping companies, petrochemical suppliers, Asian manufacturing partners, any business whose unit economics depend on pre-crisis fuel prices is now a credit and delivery risk. Map that exposure before it maps you.
The Hemingway formulation is useful because it describes timing. The gradual phase is already underway. Companies that wait for the sudden phase to respond will not be managing risk. They will be managing a crisis.
Caracal Global provides fractional Chief Geopolitical Officer services — Intelligence, Strategy, and Communications — for Fortune 1,000 companies and private equity portfolio companies.
If the Hormuz crisis is now on your board's agenda and you don't have a geopolitical officer in the room, that is the conversation we should be having. Four tiers of service: Advisory | Representative | Senator | Presidential.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc.
You can always reach me @ marc@caracal.global.
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Marc A. Ross is a geopolitical strategist and the founder of Caracal Global, a fractional Chief Geopolitical Officer service for Fortune 1,000 companies and private equity firms. He publishes the Caracal Global Daily — what a Chief Geopolitical Officer monitors every morning. Subscribe at caracal.global/contact.
