Caracal Insider Daily | January 8, 2017

Macron, Reshuffle, Merkel, Trade Crackdown, CES, Mayor Duggan, 'Three Billboards'

Caracal Insider Daily
January 8, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia

TOP FIVE

✔️ Macron launches state visit to China

✔️ May launches ministerial reshuffle

✔️ Merkel battles for her political survival

✔️ The Consumer Electronics Show opens this week

✔️ Mayor Duggan: how I halted Detroit’s decline

ROSS IN THE NEWS

“For those that care about a productive and engaged U.S.-China commercial relationship to take these polls seriously and engage Americans in Main Street coffee shops and at picnic tables for backyard summer BBQs.” Read the OpEd: In age of Trump’s twitter diplomacy, nations need to go beyond beltway by Richard Levick here: https://goo.gl/xBboqP

GEOECONOMICS

Today: French President Emmanuel Macron launched a state visit to China

France looks to deepen trade ties with Russia and China: WSJ reports, French President Emmanuel Macron plans to launch this effort when he makes his first visit to China in January and attends the St. Petersburg International Financial Congress—Russia’s answer to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland—in May.

Macron bets on horse diplomacy in China: AFP reports, in a response to panda power, French President Emmanuel Macron is betting on equine diplomacy during his first state visit to China -- presenting his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping with a horse as a gift.

China's new 'Silk Road' cannot be one-way, France's Macron says: Reuters reports, Macron said on Monday China and Europe should work together on Beijing’s “Belt and Road” initiative, a project aiming to build a modern-day “Silk Road” he said could not be “one-way”.

French deals reach the highest value for a decade: FT reports, Macron’s pro-business policies lead to rising in optimism among chief executives.

France is open for business.

French presidents once acted like referees. Then came Emmanuel Macron: WSJ reports, the country’s new leader is moving rapidly to reshape France in his own image, revamping labor laws, co-opting opposition political parties and dividing union leaders. The question now is whether his free-market blitz will stick.

UK politics: Theresa May is on Monday expected to conduct the biggest ministerial reshuffle since last year’s election.

May says she will stay 'as long as people want me to' ahead of reshuffle: Sky News reports, the PM is expected to announce Cabinet changes on Monday as she seeks to balance the Tories' pro-Brexit and Remain factions.

The Times: May’s reshuffle begins with confusion over chairman

Trump and Brexit are no longer identical twins: Britain’s approach to the world more closely tracks the EU than America.
FT - Gideon Rachman

Merkel battles to save future as parties split: The Times reports, Angela Merkel began a five-day battle for her political survival yesterday as talks opened in Berlin to build a “grand coalition” between her divided conservatives and Martin Schulz’s Social Democrats.

WSJ: South Korea steps up cryptocurrency inspections at banks

Why bitcoin is the most dangerous global scam in 20 years: When bitcoin inevitably crashes, inexperienced investors who believed the hype could lose everything.
Inc. - Vivek Wadhwa 

China fills the vacuum: Beijing's global ambition poses 'world's biggest geopolitical risk.'
Nikkei - Ian Bremmer

AMERICAN POLITICS

WSJ: Bannon aims to mend rift with Trump over book

NYT: Bannon tries backing away from explosive comments

WP: Bannon tries to soften his scathing comments, but Trump’s fury persists

LAT: Bannon apologizes over damning portrait in book as White House presses defense of Trump

Bannon apologizes as aides defend Trump’s fitness: FT reports, Trump’s former strategist expresses regret for comments in inflammatory book

Good to know this soap opera will continue for one more week and the media can't get enough of the drama.

Trump to call on Pentagon, diplomats to play bigger role in arms sales: Reuters reports, the Trump administration is nearing completion of a new “Buy American” plan that calls for US military attaches and diplomats to help drum up billions of dollars more in business overseas for the American weapons industry, going beyond the assistance they currently provide, US officials said.

White House preparing for trade crackdown: Politico reports, as Trump returns to a key campaign pledge, upcoming closed-door meetings will shed light on how aggressive the president plans to be.

Trump readies full trade arsenal: National security concern over Ant Financial amid NAFTA doubts, threats to Chinese exports.
Nikkei - Kevin Nealer

WSJ: Farmers seek signs that Trump has eased opposition to NAFTA

As Trump appeals to farmers, some of his policies don’t: NYT reports, the president will cast himself as a friend to farmers in a speech on Monday, but his position on trade and some parts of the new tax law threaten to undercut their interests.

DJT speaks to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s Annual Convention this afternoon.

Shutdown countdown: Congress is barreling towards a potential government shutdown after January 19.

Mayor Duggan: how I halted Detroit’s decline: The city’s infrastructure is working again, and it is bidding to host Amazon’s HQ.
FT

LAT: Mitt Romney appears a shoo-in for Utah's Senate seat. The question is how he'd handle Trump

ENTERPRISE

CES: The Consumer Electronics Show opens this week.

iPhones and children are a toxic pair, say two Big Apple investors: WSJ reports, Jana Partners and Calstrs are beginning an unusual campaign accusing Apple of failing to do enough to limit smartphone addiction among young users. 

I hope to create a product that is wildly successful, alters cultures, and is designed to be additive. After which, when I cash out obviously, I will tell the world said product is problematic. #iPhone #Facebook

Voice is the future - typing is so last century: Amazon and Google are going to the big CES dance this week, looking to find love for their voice-operated platforms.

I have a Google Home and love it - seamless and smart.

The first Alexa-enabled digital glasses will debut at CES.

Pfizer ends research for new Alzheimer's, Parkinson's drugs: Reuters reports, Pfizer is abandoning research to find new drugs aimed at treating Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease, the U.S. pharmaceutical company announced on Saturday.

Ford plans this spring to offer a diesel engine version of its best-selling F-150 pickup truck.

US retailers signal they had a happy Christmas: FT reports, boosted by bubbling consumer confidence and a healthy jobs market, US shoppers spent 4.9 percent more during the holidays than they did a year ago, the biggest annual rise since 2011, preliminary data from MasterCard SpendingPulse shows. 

CULTURE

LAT: 'Three Billboards' and 'Big Little Lies' are the top winners of a very different kind of Golden Globes awards

@marcaross: Big winners tonight @ the Golden Globes:
Oprah
Big Little Lies
Lady Bird
Shape of Water
Tommy Wiseau
Gary Oldman
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Oprah

Oldman as Churchill: I saw the Darkest Hour and can report that Gary Oldman was sensational.

SPORT

Bama v UGA: College football’s national championship begins at 8 pm ET - The Crimson Tide are favored at -4.0 with a 45.5 O/U.

This is Nick Saban's seventh national championship game appearance. 

DJT is scheduled to attend the national championship game in Atalanta.

AFP: Barcelona to unveil $192 million man Coutinho

José Mourinho’s living hell: Everything he does magnifies Guardiola’s success
Guardian - Barney Ronay

OpEd: In Age of Trump’s Twitter Diplomacy, Nations Need to Go Beyond Beltway | By Richard Levick

“Marc A. Ross, the founder of Caracal Global, points to China as a nation that ought to be concerned about its increasingly unfavorable standing with the American public.

“In the United States, negative views of China have increased by 26 percentage points between 2006 and 2016,” he writes at InsideSources.com. “If negative views of a company increased by 26 percentage points over a decade, the chief executive officer of said company would have a major problem.”

“It is time,” Ross maintains, “for those that care about a productive and engaged U.S.-China commercial relationship to take these polls seriously and engage Americans in Main Street coffee shops and at picnic tables for backyard summer BBQs.”

If half-numb from jet lag you’ve ever stared at the international commercials in an airport lounge TV, you’ve probably “learned a thing or two,” as they say in the Farmers Insurance ads.

India is “incredible.” Meanwhile, South Africa is “inspiring new ways.” And presumably once you’ve figured out how to get there, there’s “so much to discover” in Kyrgyzstan. 

The advertisements are part of a wave of nation-branding campaigns that apply corporate branding techniques to enhance the reputations of countries in a bid to boost tourism, attract investment or simply garner political influence.

For years now, countries have distilled “the fundamental common purpose” of their identities into (sometimes too) flashy ads spotlighted on BBC World News, CNN International and other all-news networks. Certain countries, especially the new states of Eastern Europe, have achieved success in using nation-branding campaigns to revitalize tourism after decades of war and conflict. Other countries have used it to attract capital and stimulate investment in markets that have just begun to develop.

More nascent countries, meanwhile, are trying to put themselves on the map and stir name recognition. 

“In a global marketplace, one of the most important assets of any state is encouraging inward investment, adding value to exports, and attracting tourists and skilled migrants,” says David Haigh, CEO of Brand Finance, which publishes an annual ranking of national brands.

To date, nation-branding campaigns, at least those that achieve airport lounge status, have primarily focused on U.S. business executives. Policymakers, opinion elites and the American people writ large have been only peripheral targets.

That’s quickly changing. The person who reinvented presidential politics is forcing global leaders to rethink how they engage in deliberations with the U.S. 

Despite his Twitter-fueled rhetoric and a proclivity for picking undiplomatic fights, Donald Trump’s foreign policy has largely been conventional, if you can look past his disquieting ties to Russia, his controversial declaration that Jerusalem is Israel’s capital, his withdrawal from the Paris climate accords and Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal and his decision to undercut the Iranian nuclear agreement. The president’s lengthy mid-autumn trip to Asia certainly came out of a traditional year-one playbook. As Politico recently observed, Trump has, “for all his fire and fury,” yet to change the conduct or trajectory of foreign policy. Yet, every country — whether friend or foe — is just 140 characters removed from presidential pique and the inevitable media scrum to follow.

Diplomats of all political stripes worry that Trump’s Twitter belligerence presents an unflattering image to the world and undermines the State Department’s capacity to negotiate, whether through official or back-channel diplomacy. Following one of Trump's Twitter barrages on Russia and Vladimir Putin, White House Chief of Staff John Kelly advised people not to take the president's tweets too seriously.

“The only thing maybe predictable about [Trump’s] foreign policy is that he says to the world, ‘I’m going to be unpredictable,’” Michael Anton, director of strategic communications at the National Security Council, told Susan Glasser for The Global Politico podcast. “[Trump] said he thinks that America has been too predictable, and I think he relishes that, to keep adversaries, competitors alike, sort of off balance.”

The denizens of Foggy Bottom have certainly gotten the message. “There's a lot of unexpected things that happen to us in the world of diplomacy,” Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has said. “We know how to adapt to that, we know how to work with it.”

There’s also no mistaking that Trump’s Twitter diplomacy allows him to bypass the media and make a direct appeal to his base. If countries want to effectively navigate Trump’s impetuous nature, they need to mitigate the prospects of drawing his ire and insulate themselves by building a rapport directly with the American public. That makes their nation branding more important than ever, especially as the Robert Mueller investigation into the Trump team’s possible collusion with Russia intensifies.

What’s the best way beyond commercials and public affairs outreach to communicate with a larger American audience, especially for countries whose brand isn’t necessarily well known? To date, a handful of nations have experimented with nation-branding entertainment, such as movies and television shows, to appeal to a larger audience. The outcomes have been mixed, and occasionally, as in the case of a Cambodian attempt at nation branding through censorship, they’ve backfired.

Earlier this year, the Cambodian government banned the action film “Kingsman: The Golden Circle” because it portrayed the country as a base for a criminal drug ring. It’s not the first time Cambodia, and other Southeast Asian nations, have censored films or TV shows that depict them in an unflattering light, although such censorship itself often casts these nations in an even more unflattering light.

So how can countries convey their values and importance to American audiences? Marketing concept strategist and pollster Justin Wallin says that by cultivating decision-maker and grassroots support in the U.S., countries will be better-equipped to handle communication in a Trump era. “Trump’s Twitter diplomacy forces diplomats to go beyond the Beltway,” Wallin says. “Just as they consider a nation’s brand for tourism and investment, countries need to think of their brand in domestic political terms.”

“Nations will be better able to weather a diplomatic conflict or scandal if they’ve established an authentic, resilient reputation with the American people,” Wallin adds. “This may not be of interest to the likes of North Korea, but it certainly should be to most countries seeking improved diplomatic and economic relations.”

As veterans of corporate marketing campaigns appreciate, the process of enhancing public approval begins with researching public opinion – not only to measure levels of awareness, but also to gauge assessments about a country’s action or inaction. In turn, this can help guide key stakeholders, including business leaders and legislative decision-makers, as they work to build a broader diplomatic campaign.

Research conducted by Wallin’s company illustrates the need for countries to engage in nation branding. A survey of American voters fielded in late October 2017 revealed that 54 percent believe that China is more of an economic threat than a partner to the United States, a number that skyrockets to 75 percent when voters are asked about Russia, and that was before the Paul Manafort, et al., indictments were announced.

Yet Wallin’s research also indicates that 84 percent of those surveyed believe it is appropriate for a foreign country to communicate to the American people the benefits of a good relationship between that country and the United States, reinforcing the utility of strategic branding efforts. Just like with effective corporate branding, Wallin stresses the importance of an ongoing investment in nation branding, rather than reacting to a crisis.

“The mistake many countries make is waiting until a crisis or international incident to start investing in a national brand,” Wallin warns. “If you’re responding to a crisis, you’re already too late to build an effective brand.”

Marc A. Ross, the founder of Caracal Global, points to China as a nation that ought to be concerned about its increasingly unfavorable standing with the American public.

“In the United States, negative views of China have increased by 26 percentage points between 2006 and 2016,” he writes at InsideSources.com. “If negative views of a company increased by 26 percentage points over a decade, the chief executive officer of said company would have a major problem.”

“It is time,” Ross maintains, “for those that care about a productive and engaged U.S.-China commercial relationship to take these polls seriously and engage Americans in Main Street coffee shops and at picnic tables for backyard summer BBQs.”
China isn’t alone. Beyond the inevitable fulminations against North Korea’s “little rocket man,” no one can predict Trump’s next international target on Twitter – which is even more reason for foreign leaders to redouble their commitment to nation branding. 

About the author: Richard Levick (@richardlevick) is chairman and CEO of LEVICK, a global communications and public affairs agency specializing in risk, crisis and reputation management. He is a frequent television, radio, online and print commentator.

Caracal Business Insider | December 22, 2017

Catalonia, 'Cold War mentality', Dick Enberg, Russia-UK, Boeing

Caracal Business Insider | Daily
December 22, 2017
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Caracal Business Insider = Global Business News at the Intersection of Politics + Policy + Profits

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia

Happy Holidays and Happy New Year - See you next on January 8, 2018

What Caracal Global is watching today:

✔️ Catalonia election + separatists keep majority

✔️ China condemns US 'Cold War mentality'

✔️ Russia-UK relations at 'a very low point'

✔️ Boeing is seeking to buy the Brazilian aircraft maker Embraer

GEOECONOMICS

CNBC: Spain's political crisis is 'back to square one' after Catalonia election

In a blow to Spanish unity, Catalan separatists keep the majority in regional vote: NYT reports, separatist parties won a narrow majority in Catalonia after the Spanish government called the election in an attempt to resolve the constitutional crisis.

Catalonia results: Parties seeking to secede from Spain narrowly won a snap election. The separatists won about 47 percent of the votes but secured 70 of the 135 seats in the regional Parliament, a narrow majority.

Guardian: A slap in the face’ for Madrid: Puigdemont hails Catalonia election win

Catalans really, and still, want to be free, while at the same time, Catalan's independence is less than clear and easy.

How I almost became a Chinese spy – reflections on China's age of anxiety
Financial Review - Angus Grigg

"The idea that China Correspondents Lisa Murray and Angus Grigg were merely journalists, chasing stories and looking to generate clicks seemed implausible to their Chinese minders."

An excellent read to grasp how the Chinese Communist Party seeks to control and gather information.

BBC: China condemns US 'Cold War mentality' on national security

CNBC: China to USA: 'Stop deliberately distorting' our global strategy

#EvergreenTalkingPoint

Boris Johnson faces cold reception on Russia trip: FT reports, relations at ‘zero-level’ for first visit by foreign secretary in five years.

CNN: Russia-UK relations at 'a very low point' - Lavrov

Theresa May says she wants to see a female James Bond.

Cuba: Raúl Castro will step down as president in April.

QOTD: “I didn’t want this job. I didn’t seek this job… My wife told me I’m supposed to do this.” – US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson

NEXT CHINA

Make plans to attend the NEXT CHINA conference hosted by SupChina.  

The event will be held on Wednesday, January 17, 2018, at The Times Center in New York City. 

The conference will have five sessions covering Technology, Economy, Healthcare, Politics, and Philanthropy, followed by a live Sinica Podcast recording on “Cracking the China Conundrum."

RSVP for the NEXT China conference here:
https://goo.gl/5UZUhr

Use code HOLIDAY for a $300 ticket.

AMERICAN POLITICS

Dispute over political strategy erupts inside the White House: NYT reports, an Oval Office meeting involving President Trump and his top advisers on Wednesday devolved into a heated exchange between his former campaign manager and the White House political director, people briefed on the discussion said.

FNC: Trump deputy chief of staff Rick Dearborn to step down

Republicans warn Trump of 2018 bloodbath: Politico reports, the White House knows the midterm election will probably be bad. Behind the scenes, top aides are scrambling to avoid the worst.

Republicans plan mega marketing push to sell unpopular tax plan: Politico reports, 'When [voters] start to see what happens to their paychecks,' said one conservative, 'they will change their minds.'

US government funding has been extended until January 19. 

Bots will sway an election near you: Bloomberg reports, the key to political victory may lie in code. Automated software, known as bots, can fire out non-stop social media messages backing a particular candidate or campaign. The phenomenon goes beyond Russian-linked Facebook accounts aiming to influence foreign elections. Researchers in the and US found Twitter bots weighing in on Brexit and the US vote. 

“I have power”: Is Steve Bannon running for President?Vanity Fair reports, on a whirlwind tour around the globe, Trump’s former aide and alter ego reveals what really went down in the White House, his unfettered thoughts on Javanka, his complicated relationship with his erstwhile boss—and his own political ambitions. https://goo.gl/fkvonf

ENTERPRISE

Boeing is seeking to buy the Brazilian aircraft maker Embraer to try to gain a bigger foothold in the regional jet market.

Eric Schmidt steps down as executive chairman of Google's parent, Alphabet.

269 billion = The number emails sent and received daily

NYT: Apple is the most valuable public company
ever https://goo.gl/PX5VWt

Bloomberg's the year in money: Market highs, a venture capital boom, and record-low unemployment were just some of the defining moments for investors in 2017. https://goo.gl/nWhCMC

Bloomberg: Long Island Iced Tea soars after changing its name to Long Blockchain

$19,511 = Bitcoin Sunday

$13,577 = Bitcoin Friday

Facebook signed a deal with Universal Music Group that lets its platforms carry songs from the music label’s artists.

Qualcomm has gotten a permit to test self-driving cars on public roads in California.

Daimler buys France’s alternative to Uber: FT reports, the deal for Chauffeur Privé shows German group seeking to attract vehicle-less consumers.

Volvo, Cadillac, and Porsche drive subscription model growth: FT reports, carmakers are launching rental services even as peer-to-peer car lending platforms gain traction.

CULTURE

RIP: Dick Enberg, award-winning US sports broadcaster, dies at 82

#OhMy!

AP Poll: Sexual misconduct allegations voted top news story

Guardian's best albums of 2017 https://goo.gl/QQz5Pe

Guadian's top 50 films of 2017 https://goo.gl/wdLH7i

SPORT

In an unforgiving sport, they minister to hearts and souls: NYT reports, a chaplain is part of the team for about three-quarters of England’s professional teams, offering spiritual or secular counseling to the players. https://goo.gl/tJoXeZ

Figure skating in Detroit is aiming to change the color of the sport: The Undefeated reports, this girls-only program uses figure skating to build self-esteem and academic achievement. https://goo.gl/BNybhm

5 things to know about the 2018 Winter Olympicshttps://goo.gl/sHfhbQ

WP: Florida State may not be eligible but is still expected to play in Independence Bowl

FOX College Football: Way (WAY) Too Early Top 10 for 2018

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan
4. Miami
5. Ohio State
6. Georgia
7. Oklahoma
8. USC
9. Stanford
10. MSU