Tariff Delay, Itlay, Scotland, Singapore, Apple, Spider-Man, AI, HNA

Tariff Delay, Itlay, Scotland, Singapore, Apple, Spider-Man, AI, HNA

Marc Ross Daily
May 1, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia

Marc Ross Daily  = Global Business News at the Intersection of Politics + Policy + Profits

Subscribe here: https://goo.gl/bSQKwA

TOP FIVE

✔️ Trump delays steel tariff decision for EU, other U.S. allies

✔️ Italy’s governing options diminish

✔️ Scotland leads world with start of minimum alcohol pricing

✔️ U.S. weighing Singapore, Korean DMZ for Trump-Kim summit

✔️ Apple is aiming to release an AR/VR headset in 2020

GEOECONOMICS

WSJ: Trump delays steel tariff decision for EU, other U.S. allies

Trump will give Canada, Mexico and the European Union another 30-day reprieve from steel and aluminum tariffs.

Reuters: Benefit of Trump tax cuts overshadowed by technology and misplaced policies: Milken conference speakers

The Milken Institute Global Conference — an annual confab for investors, researchers and policymakers — kicked off Monday in Beverly Hills.

NAFTA: Representatives from Canada, Mexico and the United States agreed to meet May 7 in Washington to resume negotiations for a revised North American Free Trade Agreement.

Italy’s governing options diminish: The two-month search for a new government was thrown into disarray as leaders of the anti-establishment Five Star and the center-left Democratic Party said dialogue was impossible, extending the gridlock in the euro area's third-biggest economy. 

President Trump will be our greatest ally after Brexit: Freed from ties to the EU, Britain can build a truly special relationship with this US president.
The Times - Jacob Rees-Mogg

Scotland leads world with start of minimum alcohol pricing: AFP reports, Scotland on Tuesday became the world's first country to introduce minimum pricing for alcohol, in what its government expects will be a trailblazing move following years of legal battles. "Scotland is the first country in the world being bold enough and brave enough to introduce minimum unit pricing," Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon told AFP.

AFP: Pacific and China on agenda as Macron arrives in Australia

China woos another Taiwan partner, diluting island’s support: WSJ reports, China established formal relations with the Dominican Republic, peeling away another of Taiwan’s dwindling diplomatic partners as Beijing tries to pressure Taipei to accept Chinese terms for political engagement.

Reuters: Taiwan says China dangled $3 billion to grab ally Dominican Republic

2022: The year when China is projected to surpass the U.S. as the largest air travel market, according to a International Air Transport Association forecast.

White House considers restricting Chinese researchers over espionage fears: NYT reports, he Trump administration, concerned about China’s growing technological prowess, is considering strict measures to block Chinese citizens from performing sensitive research at American universities and research institutes over fears they may be acquiring intellectual secrets, according to people familiar with the deliberations. The White House is discussing whether to limit the access of Chinese citizens to the United States, including restricting certain types of visas available to them and greatly expanding rules pertaining to Chinese researchers who work on projects with military or intelligence value at American companies and universities. https://nyti.ms/2FuqbI5

Reuters: U.S. Treasury chief: 'Cautiously optimistic' on China trade talks

Bloomberg - Michael Schuman OpEd: In trade talks, China is too clever by half: As is often the case in China, how things appear on the surface is not actually how they are. That’s especially true with China’s recent market reforms. Beijing isn’t groveling before a tariff-rattling Washington, nor honestly addressing the frustrations of international CEOs. That’s just not how China works. https://bloom.bg/2rcIUCB

Cui's puzzlement: 'Is America still there?': CD reports, Chinese ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai is puzzled about a country where he has lived and worked for 11 years. "Is the America I used to know -- an open, confident, optimistic America -- still there?" he asked in a speech at Harvard University's Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies on April 17. What perplexes Cui, Beijing's longest-serving ambassador to the US, where he was once a student and UN employee, perhaps also is confounding many others, who are either coming to visit, seeking to study or doing business in the country.

In Beijing they ask, who lost America?!?

U.S. weighing Singapore, Korean DMZ for Trump-Kim summit: WSJ reports, Trump said he was considering Singapore and the demilitarized zone on the Korean Peninsula as the site for his summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.

AMERICAN POLITICS

NBC News: Kelly thinks he's saving U.S. from disaster, calls Trump 'idiot,' say White House staffers

"Some current and former officials said they expect Kelly to leave by July, and that Trump and Kelly seem to have tired of each other."

LAT: Chief of Staff John Kelly calls ‘BS' on report he called Trump an idiot

Mueller outlined over 40 questions for Trump in potentialinterview: WSJ reports, special counsel Robert Mueller earlier this year outlined for President Trump’s legal team more than 40 questions he planned to ask as part of his investigation into Trump associates’ ties to Russia.

The House and Senate are out this week.

NYT: Trump’s role in midterm elections roils Republicans

"Congressional and party leaders and even some Trump aides are concerned that the president’s boundless self-assurance about politics will cause him to ignore or undermine their midterm strategy. In battleground states like Arizona, Florida and Nevada, Trump’s proclivity to be a loose cannon could endanger the Republican incumbents and challengers who are already facing ferocious Democratic headwinds."

WP: Democrats were looking at suburban districts. Now they’re glancing toward rural ones too.

"Democrats suggesting that the 2018 field is dramatically larger than anyone could have guessed last year, including in some more rural spots that they once thought of ceding to Republicans."

The lobbying firm CGCN Group emails clients: “Republicans are headed for a tough midterm election … It’s normal that sitting presidents lose many seats in midterm elections … Democratic voters continue to express significantly more interest in the upcoming midterms … enthusiasm gap compounded by the retirements of 46 House Republicans.”

Pompeo dives into NATO diplomacy as allies confront Russia: AP reports, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo rebuked Russia on Friday for what he called aggression beyond its borders, and vowed to restore relevance to a badly demoralized State Department in his new role as the top American diplomat. 

Today: Trump presents the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy to the U.S. Military Academy Football Team.

Trump’s China tariffs risk costing U.S. jobs, new study shows: Bloomberg reports, the tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese imports that Trump has proposed, plus promised retaliatory duties by China, would reduce U.S. gross domestic product by $2.9 billion and cost almost 134,000 U.S. jobs, according to a study commissioned by the Consumer Technology Association and the National Retail Federation, which oppose the tariffs. That includes more than 67,000 jobs in agriculture.

ENTERPRISE

Reuters: Disney to create live sports, entertainment shows for Twitter

Apple is aiming to release an AR/VR headset in 2020.

Huawei probe risks bigger shock to smartphone industry: Nikei reports, a ban similar to ZTE's would choke off supplies to the world's third-ranked vendor

Tesla is burning through more than $6,500 a minute.

Tesla has over 300 Chinese startups hot on its tail.

Toyota pushes forward launch of electric vehicle in China.

Reuters: China's HNA drops bid to buy Scaramucci's SkyBridge due to regulatory hold-up

Royal Bank of Scotland is to cut around 792 jobs and shutter 162 branches following a review of its branch network in England and Wales.

TRENDS

How much are “free” digital products worth to you? According to surveys of what consumers would have to get to give up various online services by Erik Brynjolfsson, Felix Eggers and Avinash Gannamaneni. Consumers would have to be paid $17,530 per year to give up Internet search, $8,414 for email, $3,648 for maps, $322 for social media and $155 for messaging. The fact they pay nothing suggests they reap substantial “consumer surplus” from these services that does not show up in measured gross domestic product. Of course, consumers may get even more surplus from more mundane non-digital products. How much would you have to be paid to give up indoor plumbing?

The AI arms race: China and US compete to dominate big data: Algorithms trained on mountains of Chinese data may soon be making decisions that deeply affect the lives of people in the US. Beijing plans to be the world leader in the technology by 2030. The contest will come down to who can better manipulate the data. https://on.ft.com/2KtNbdW

Big Data > Big Oil

The world's wealthiest companies are powerhouse data collectors and data users.

The bullshit job phenomenon — are you in one? More than a million people have read David Graeber’s essay arguing that many jobs are pointless. Now he’s expanded his theory into a book. http://bit.ly/2I3Ofqp

"A poll revealed that 37 percent of British workers believe that their job makes no meaningful contribution to the world"

Here's the original essay: On the phenomenon of bullshit jobs: A work rant http://bit.ly/2w52nLg

CULTURE

The spy who came home: Why an expert in counterterrorism became a beat cop. http://bit.ly/2FsJWzL

RIP: Larry Harvey, the founder of the Burning Man festival, has died at the age of 70 after suffering a stroke earlier this month. Harvey kicked off the festival in 1986, when he and about a dozen others burned a wooden man on a San Francisco beach.

SOTD

Friendly Fires - Jump In The Pool http://bit.ly/2jmAo0z

SPORT

A week inside a soccer club when the money runs out: NYT reports, every year, through careless management or reckless ambition, a handful of soccer clubs drift uncomfortably close to collapse. In February, Denmark’s Lyngby B.K. came closer than most. https://nyti.ms/2JKO1lo

AFP: Rangers sack Murty as Gerrard speculation swirls

Champions League - Semi-Finals:

Today: Real Madrid v Bayern (Aggregate 2-1) 

Wednesday: Roma v Liverpool (Aggregate 2-5)

Brand marketing in a direct marketing world

Pop quiz: What was the top Super Bowl 2018 ad according to USA Today’s Ad Meter?

Heck, if you can name one of the top ten, I will give you bonus points.

The reason you can’t remember the best ad or any ads from the big game, it’s not the best tool.

It’s not the best tool because it doesn’t connect, make an impact, or leave a mark. 

You see brand marketing doesn't work in the direct marketing world.

Brand marketing is from a different age. A different business environment. A different communication era.

Brand marketing was created when John Wanamaker’s statement “half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don't know which half” worked because it could work. 

It could work because advertisers created a mass broadcast communications environment to serve its needs.

Radio was created to sell ads.

Television was created to sell ads.

Brian Millar, co-founder of the Emotional Intelligence Agency, writes "traditional advertising went after ‘share of mind’–the idea was to get you to associate a brand with a single idea, a single emotion. Volvo: safety. Jaguar: speed. Coke: happiness. The Economist: success. Bang, bang, bang, went the ads, hammering the same idea into your mind every time you saw one.

"Advertising briefs evolved to focus the creatives on a single unique selling position and a single message. Tell them we’re the Ultimate Driving Machine. Tell them in a thrilling way. It worked when you saw ads infrequently on television, in a Sunday magazine, or on a billboard on your morning commute."

This type of advertising worked because it was a communications environment of one to many with only a handful of vehicles to reach an audience.

But that is not today.

Today we are living in a direct marketing world powered by the WWW.

Now we have micro-media and personalized broadcast communications environment which serves the needs of the end user.

The internet was not created for ads.

The internet is not mass media.

To better understand this new communications environment the Emotional Intelligence Agency conducted a study to understand what kind of content works. The firm found communications which used funny, useful, beautiful, and inspiring content delivers the best results. Not surprising the most successful brands do all four.

Also not surprising these are the adjectives used by any top storyteller. She knows they are best words when executing micro and personalized communications.

Yet most of us communicate using only one type of emotionally compelling content - if at all - employing brand marketing techniques that are closer to the days of Mad Men them to the present day of Laundry Service.

We still communicate like once a day, or worse just a few times a month. Instead of using tools that follow and engage our most active supporters in their media diet.

When it comes to the WWW and the direct marketing communications environment, being multidimensional beats being single-minded. 

Surprise beats consistency. 

Emotion beats fact.

Funny beats dour.

Useful beats sales. 

Beautiful beats boring. 

Inspirational beats directional.

The best communicators have always understood this instinctively.

By the way, USA Today’s Ad Meter ranked Amazon's "Alexa Loses Her Voice" as the best 2018 ad.

I don't remember the ad either. But I do remember my friends telling me a story or two about Alexa that used funny, useful, beautiful, and inspiring words to describe their experiences.

-Marc A. Ross

Marc A. Ross is the founder of Caracal Global and specializes in global communications and thought leader management at the intersection of politics, policy, and profits. Working with boardrooms and C-Suite executives from multinational corporations, trade associations, and disruptive startups, Marc helps business leaders navigate globalization, disruption, and American politics.
 

China, Germany, Brexit, Ohio, Sprint, T-Mobile, Kentucky Derby, Giro d'Italia

China, Germany, Brexit, Ohio, Sprint, T-Mobile, Kentucky Derby, Giro d'Italia

Marc Ross Daily
April 30, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia

Marc Ross Daily  = Global Business News at the Intersection of Politics + Policy + Profits

Subscribe here: https://goo.gl/bSQKwA

TOP FIVE

✔️ China eases rules on foreign investment in securities firms

✔️ Expect tough talk when US trade hawks visit, not an end to the row

✔️ Brexit talks could collapse over Irish border issue

✔️ In battle to be Ohio governor candidate, it’s left vs. left

✔️ Less than a week until the Kentucky Derby
 

GEOECONOMICS

China eases rules on foreign investment in securities firms: FT reports, China has revealed new regulations that allow foreign investors to take majority control of local securities firms, after President Xi Jinping called for an intensification of financial reforms in the midst of a bitter trade row with the US. After years of complaints about Beijing blocking foreign access to its fast-growing financial markets, the China Securities Regulatory Commission at the weekend published the new rules, which raise the cap on foreign ownership on stockbroking firms from 49 percent to 51 percent, effective immediately.

For China, the American team of trade rivals won’t be easy to please: WSJ reports, China is looking to dazzle a visiting U.S. trade delegation this week, arranging a session with President Xi Jinping and planning pledges to cut tariffs and ease regulations. It will likely take more than that to impress the visiting Americans and head off a looming trade war. It will be a high-stakes meeting, starting Thursday. U.S.-China economic relations have sunk to their lowest point in decades with the U.S., angry over alleged Chinese pressure on U.S. firms to transfer technology to Chinese partners and other misdeeds, threatening tariffs on $150 billion in Chinese goods and prohibitions on Chinese purchase of U.S. technology. The trade mission gives both sides a chance at easing those tensions, but chances of a quick resolution are slim.

Expect tough talk when US trade hawks visit, not an end to the row: SCMP reports, expectations are low that China’s trade squabbles with the US can be easily resolved, as three of the biggest hawks in US President Donald Trump’s administration prepare for a joint trip to Beijing next week. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, National Economic Council head Larry Kudlow, and White House trade adviser Peter Navarro will accompany US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to Beijing on Thursday and Friday, where they are scheduled to meet Chinese officials including President Xi Jinping and Vice-President Wang Qishan.

NYT: China prepares a hard-line stance on U.S. trade demands

"China will refuse to discussTrump’s two toughest trade demands in talks with U.S. negotiators this week, people involved in Chinese policymaking say."

"Beijing feels its economy has become big enough and resilient enough to stand up to the United States."

U.S. allies brace for trade war as talks on Trump tariffs stall: NYT reports, days before tariffs on steel and aluminum take effect, it’s dawning on foreign leaders that decades of warm U.S. relations carry little weight with a president dismissive of diplomatic norms.

Germany wants wider trade talks with U.S. even if tariffs hit: Reuters reports, Germany on Monday dampened hopes that an exemption from U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum could be extended for European Union countries, but called for trade negotiations to continue regardless of whether the levies are applied.

FT: Hunt intensifies to solve Irish border dilemmahttps://on.ft.com/2HGLxYI

"Hybrid models, fallback measures for UK as a whole and other proposals in the mix" 

The Times: Brexit talks could collapse over Irish border issue, says EU negotiator

Banks seem oddly unconcerned about Brexit: They keep doing more business from the U.K.
Bloomberg - Mark Whitehouse

"Is the U.K. really going to leave the European Union? Judging from their lending activity, bankers might be having some doubts."

Sajid Javid named home secretary: The Times, Sajid Javid was today promoted to become the first Asian politician to hold a great office of state as Theresa May tried to shore up her government after Amber Rudd’s resignation. 

The home of British democracy is rotting from within. The cost to fix Westminster? $5 billion. WP reports, British lawmakers approved one of the most ambitious restoration projects of the modern age, a scheme that would see the entire Parliament decamp to nearby buildings for six years while the Palace of Westminster gets a much-needed makeover.

AMERICAN POLITICS

‘Ready, shoot, aim’: Trump’s loyalty tests cause hiring headaches: WP reports, the failed nomination of Ronny L. Jackson to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs was the latest example of the sometimes haphazard way President Trump unilaterally elevates people with whom he has a personal rapport. “Trump decides who he wants and tells people,” said a strategist who works closely with the West Wing. “That’s the vetting process.”

In battle to be Ohio governor candidate, it’s left vs. left: NYT reports, Senator Elizabeth Warren has endorsed one candidate for Ohio governor. Senator Bernie Sanders calls the other an old friend. Which is the true progressive? https://nyti.ms/2ragQQh

OH-GOV: The Democratic primary next week pits Richard Cordray, a onetime director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, against Dennis Kucinich, a former congressman, and presidential candidate.

Democrats lose ground with millennials: poll: Enthusiasm for the Democratic Party is waning among young voters as its candidates head into the crucial midterm congressional elections, a Reuters/Ipsos poll reports. https://reut.rs/2HG1j1Q

This rural Wisconsin county is famous in China. A trade war could take it all away. WP reports, there are ginseng farms in this remote corner of Wisconsin where phones are answered in Mandarin. Others have opened storefronts or retrofitted spare rooms to welcome busloads of Chinese tourists and businesspeople. This rural area built an important local industry as a purveyor of a premium product for China’s rising middle class, where its ginseng is sold in boxes bearing the American flag and the line, “Something Special from Wisconsin.” Now trade tensions between the United States and China threaten a niche market that employs hundreds of workers and supports dozens of family farms in a rural community where other options are limited.

Trump's steel tariffs are squeezing U.S. businesses — and things could get worse: LAT reports, the tariffs have already brought higher prices for many American manufacturers and construction firms, and exemptions granted to some of the biggest steel and aluminum exporters to the U.S. are set to expire on Tuesday.

These are the industries Trump should protect from China if he wants to win elections: WP reports, tariffs can be powerful political weapons, and Donald Trump is about to give himself plenty of ammunition. The administration has listed about $50 billion in Chinese goods it plans to tax, and it announced plans to impose tariffs on an additional $100 billion in the near future. Assuming the tariffs go forward, we can use research and trade data to consider where they could be deployed for maximum political gain. https://wapo.st/2vNlHfQ

ENTERPRISE

Walmart to sell U.K. arm amid shift in overseas strategy: WSJ reports, Walmart said it would sell its British arm Asda to rival J Sainsbury, a deal that values the chain at about $10 billion and would, if successful, create the largest player in the U.K.’s fiercely competitive grocery market.

Sainsbury's in $10 billion swoop on Asda to create top UK supermarket: Reuters reports, Sainsbury's has agreed to buy Walmart's Asda for about 7.3 billion pounds ($10 billion) to create Britain's biggest supermarket group by market share, overtaking long-standing industry leader Tesco.

Marathon Petroleum agreed to buy pipeline and refining company Andeavor for $23.3 billion.

WSJ: Volkswagen, Didi Chuxing to unveil ride-hailing joint venture

FT: T-Mobile and Sprint agree all-stock merger

NYT: Sprint and T-Mobile agree to merge. Will the FCC allow it?

Reuters: T-Mobile, Sprint say $26 billion deal would give U.S. tech lead over China

Playing the US vs. China card...... Horserace + global business + headlines = New M&A strategy

SPORT

Kentucky Derby: The race runs on Saturday, May 5 with a post time at 6:50 p.m. ET. Justify, who won this year's Santa Anita Derby and is trained by Bob Baffert, is the 2-1 favorite at William Hill US. Right behind Justify is Magnum Moon, who's going off at 4-1 and is trained by Todd Pletcher. Eleven horses are getting 20-1 Kentucky Derby odds or better.

Less than a week until the Kentucky Derby.

NBA begins to address mental health and athletes: AFP reports, The NBA is joining forces with the players' union to launch a mental wellness program with the hope that athletes will see it as a way to open up about their struggles with mental health. Toronto Raptors DeMar DeRozan and Cleveland Cavaliers Kevin Love are helping to jump start the program, which begins in part this week with a website and public service ads encouraging mental wellness for its athletes. "We always preach eating healthy, exercising, being an elite athlete," DeRozan told the Toronto Globe and Mail newspaper.

Israel hopes for revelation by hostingstart of Giro cycling race: AFP reports, Often in the news as the epicentre of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Jerusalem will later this week become the backdrop of the start of one of cycling's biggest races, the Giro d'Italia. The race's "Big Start", beginning Friday, marks the first time any of cycling's three major races -- the Giro, Tour de France and Vuelta a Espana -- will begin outside of Europe.