Caracal ITK | Sep. 30

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1. How Xi Jinping lost Australia: Politico reports that Australia thought it was on the cusp of a beautiful friendship with China nearly ten years ago. It opened up its economy to Beijing, wanted to teach Mandarin in schools, and invited the Chinese president to address parliament.

Now, that's all over.

These days, Australia is buying up nuclear-powered submarines to fend off Beijing, barring the country from key markets and bristling at its relentless attempts to coerce Australian politicians and media.

In part, the head-spinning shift reflects the rising global wariness of China's increasingly pugilistic behavior.

Xi's "Wolf Warrior" tactics pushed Australia right back into its traditional military nexus, with the US and UK, costing Beijing a potentially valuable partner in the region.

2. Xi Jinping's crackdown keeps growing: Nikkei reports billionaires banished. Celebrities canceled. Private businesses were wiped out overnight with the stroke of the ruling communist party's pen, along with a ban on the once-common practice of raising money offshore.

All of which has been prompting officials, investors, and indeed anyone with a stake in the future of the world's largest country to ask — what on earth is going on in Xi Jinping's China?

The new 'common prosperity' doctrine hearkens back to the Mao era.

3. No nation building for Americans: Six in 10 Americans now say the most critical lesson from Afghanistan is that the US shouldn't be involved in nation building. The poll, conducted by the Eurasia Group Foundation, also found that 76 percent of respondents agreed with the statement that "unless the country is under attack, the president of the United States should be required to seek approval from Congress before ordering military action overseas."

4. Borris Johnson to India to talk climate? Word on the street is that PM Johnson wants a diplomatic win leading into COP26. That could include a potential trip to New Delhi, which a UK official said the PM wants to visit before countries begin arriving in Glasgow in November. "He is keen to travel, hear different perspectives and see how countries can be helped to raise their ambition for COP," said the official. No. 10 wouldn't confirm the trip.

It makes sense as India is currently the fourth-largest carbon emitter and has not submitted an updated climate goal for this decade, one of the core tasks of COP26.

5. Biden's foreign policy is more similar to Trump's: Richard Haass opines: "Trump was supposed to be an aberration—a US president whose foreign policy marked a sharp but temporary break from an internationalism that had defined seven decades of US interactions with the world. He saw little value in alliances and spurned multilateral institutions. He eagerly withdrew from existing international agreements, such as the Paris climate accord and the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, and backed away from new ones, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. He coddled autocrats and trained his ire on the United States' democratic partners."

"At first glance, the foreign policy of US President Biden could hardly be more different… But the differences, meaningful as they are, obscure a deeper truth. There is far more continuity between the foreign policy of the current president and that of the former president than is typically recognized."

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Demystifying the global politics, power, and policies shaping commerce

Caracal ITK | Sep. 29

1. How China plans to avert an Evergrande financial crisis: Officials believe that controlling the banking system gives Beijing the tools to stop a broader collapse. At the same time, censorship and police powers can stifle protests. Censorship of the press and social media makes it hard for the general public to know about the extent of Evergrande's troubles and for Evergrande home buyers and investors to organize.

2. China and Evergrande ascended together. Now one is about to fall. As Xu Jiayin's company, China Evergrande Group, became one of the country's largest property developers, he amassed the trappings of the elite. With trips to Paris to taste rare French wines, a million-dollar yacht, private jets, and access to some of the most influential people in Beijing.

From eating potato flour to drinking rare French wines in Paris in one's lifetime, with such a transformation of one's life, you could understand why one would be down with the CCP running China.

But, when China's economy began to cool down, the damage caused by Evergrande's voracious appetite for debt became impossible to ignore. There are nearly 800 unfinished Evergrande projects in more than 200 cities across China.

3. Gas crisis shows why we must stop demonizing fossil fuels: The engineering challenges around renewables mean we need to be realistic while waiting for the green transition. Merryn Somerset Webb writes, in 2019, 33 percent of our new power generation needs were met by renewable energy. That's a start. But 40 percent were met by natural gas.

4. Carbon taxes are the next big political battle: Carbon taxes are arguably the most cost-effective weapon of cutting emissions by 45 percent by 2030. But the moment carbon pricing raises the price of carbon, it will terrify politicians. Carbon pricing versus voters' wallets is the next political battle of our time.

5. Australia, welcome to the 2024 GOP presidential primary: Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) questioned Tuesday if the United States should rethink its diplomatic relationship with Australia given its strict, military-enforced COVID-19 lockdowns.

Speaking at the International Boat Builders' Exhibition and Conference in Tampa, DeSantis said, "You know, you guys, look what's going on in Australia right now. You know, they're enforcing, after a year and a half, they're still enforcing lockdowns by the military."

"That's not a free country. It's not a free country at all. In fact, I mean, I wonder why we would still have the same diplomatic relations when they're doing that. Is Australia freer than China, communist China, right now? I don't know.

QOTD: "You can't lose four elections and not change." -- Sir Keir Starmer when asked if he is moving the Labour party away from 'the left.'

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Demystifying the global politics, power, and policies shaping commerce