Caracal Daily | Dec. 21

WATCHING TODAY:

1. Davos is dead: The world’s most elite conference is postponed, again.

2. Pelosi announces plans for observance of one-year Jan. 6 anniversary: WP preparations are underway for “a full program of events,” including talks with historians, an opportunity for members to share their experiences and a prayerful vigil, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said.

3. How your schedule can make or break you.

4. North Fork vineyard? Check. Long Island properties with wineries, grape-growing operations, or enough open land to build them, are becoming the hot new status symbol for acquisitive millionaires.

5. Why did the WTA risk everything for Peng Shuai? It has to do with tanks in Shenzhen, mariachi bands in Guadalajara, and a legacy passed down by players for 50 years.

GLOBALIZATION

Palantir to reshore all UK data processing from US before regulatory ‘tsunami’ hits: FT reports the defense-oriented American firm among first to localize data operations fully as companies Balkanise their activity.

+ Watch this space: More regulation is coming as all companies will need to demonstrate they are using data responsibly and complying with local/national laws.

DISRUPTION

The new triple-double: Triple vaxxed + Double masked.

The pareto funtier: Web3 is a vortex for talent, money, culture, and brain space.

Not Boring

+ "that stone in the shoe of economists: humans aren’t as rational as the textbooks would suggest. People often choose to do things that aren’t particularly fun or financially fruitful. Humans gonna human."

The 'To the Moon' crash is coming: A longtime venture capitalist sees the religious dedication to Elon Musk, hype, and YOLO investing as almost a dot com-style pyramid scheme in the making.

Vice

+ "...remember, technologies change and companies change and markets change and governments change. But just human nature is a constant."

+ "the only thing the stock price measures is what other people believe. It doesn't measure fundamental value or intrinsic value"

+ "So, price is only a measure of belief and expectations. Fundamentals are a measure of value. That discrepancy between fundamentals and expectation is where great investors are made."

+ "Religions only exist based on the strength of their believers. And as soon as people stop believing in a god or religion, it disappears."

Brian Eno is not a fan of NFTs: 'Right now, I mainly see hustlers looking for suckers,' says the ambient music pioneer.

The Verge

How crypto could be like the music industry: The future of cryptocurrency could depend on whether people focus on the artist, the label, or the venue.

Tyler Cowen

+ "One conclusion here is that to know where crypto is headed, sociology is as important as economics. Crypto will continue to be surprising because people see it not just as a way to make money, but as a way to make meaning of their lives."

@jack: You don’t own “web3.” The VCs and their LPs do. It will never escape their incentives. It’s ultimately a centralized entity with a different label. Know what you’re getting into…

+ Yeah. Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.

Can indoor farms reach skyscraper height? A proposed Shenzhen skyscraper would include a 51-story hydroponic farm, as hopes grow that vertical farms can help address food insecurity.

Bloomberg

+ The future is farmscraper.

The most popular Wikipedia article for every day in 2021

Quartz

+ Death. Sport. Pop culture.

POLITICS

Do you think that Boris Johnson is doing well or badly as Prime Minister?

Well: 23% (-6)

Badly: 71% (+7)

Via @YouGov, 20 Dec. Changes w/ 22 Nov. HT @ElectionMapsUK

+ Balliol College, we have a problem.

How Boris Johnson can survive his MPs' cold anger: After being deserted by Lord Frost and failed by his chief whip, the PM needs frank and loyal advisers to restore order.

William Hague

Biden approval rating at historic low in NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll

The Hill

+ They can only go...

PERFORMANCE

Ping. Ding. Chirp. Notifications are driving us crazy. With workplace tools multiplying and personal messages creeping in, it can be hard to get anything done.

WSJ

+ Outside of a nuclear attack or a loved one needing assistance, nearly all notifications are a distraction and only serve the software/app/code/computer and not the human.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

Curation and commentary by Marc A. Ross | Founder @ Caracal

More @ caracal.global

Guest Column: Get Ready for the Beijing Splinter Olympics

December 6, 2021

Marc A. Ross

In 60 days, the Winter Olympic Games will start in Beijing, and few are excited.

Better to be called the Splinter Olympics Games.

Corporate sponsors are saying no comment, democratically elected politicians are scoring points with domestic voters, and China’s wolf warrior diplomacy is on full display.

Without question, this is shaping up to be the most controversial Olympics in decades.

Calls for diplomatic boycotts are being discussed in Brussels, Ottawa, and Washington over Beijing’s human rights abuses against the Uyghur Muslims, increased censorship, and suppression of free expression.

In addition, the build-up to the event is witnessing a worsening pandemic with a new variant and lingering questions over Beijing’s mishandling of the initial COVID-19 outbreak.

Even with all this noise, the games do not have to splinter the world. In fact, America can be the global leader in making these games a success and a positive turning point for fair competition and sporting values.

Here is how America’s business leaders, elected officials, and diplomatic corps should respond to Beijing hosting these games.

First, athletes will compete, full stop. No one should advocate for a policy banning athletes from competing.

Penalizing athletes who have no choice in where the games are held is unfair. They did not decide the location of these games.

All they can do is train, prepare, compete, and play fair. Making athletes choose not to compete would be a disservice to these world-class athletes and will accomplish little in the way China operates in the short term.

Second, America’s business leaders should not shy away from their corporate support of the International Olympic Committee and the ethos of the games. They should get in front of gotcha political reporting and reports from special interests looking to embarrass them.

America’s business leaders should affirm they recognize international tensions and the challenges of operating in China while at the same time reminding their various stakeholders that they stand behind the Olympic Movement and sponsorship arrangements are multi-year commitments — sometimes Beijing but also Tokyo, Paris, and Los Angeles.

Third, I more than most fully recognize the political points that can be scored with domestic voters when it comes to China. Uniquely I have worked on US presidential campaigns and was communication director for a group advocating for more US-China commercial relations. Trust me. When it comes to China and globalization, I have seen and heard it all and appreciate that the American public wants their elected officials to act. According to an Axios | Momentive survey, 61% of Republicans and 50% of Democrats say China shouldn’t be allowed to host the 2022 Olympics.

With those bipartisan numbers, it is not surprising that strange bedfellows like Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) are finding common ground in China hosting these games.

It’s easy to ask black and white poll questions and for politicians to speak harshly on China — it all makes political sense — but once you decide to boycott the Beijing Winter Games, then what? And finally, when it comes to America’s diplomatic corps and engaging China’s punk rock-inspired wolf warrior diplomacy, we should not lead a diplomatic boycott of the games.

We should embrace the games and send the most amazing, diverse, and talented diplomatic corps our nation can assemble.

China might be big, sure. And it might be developing dangerous weapons technology and treating its citizens less equally than we aspire to in the West. But in no way can China match America’s soft power and diplomatic savvy.

China wants a diplomatic boycott. The Chinese Communist Party thrives on a narrative that China is a victim of outside forces and globally misunderstood.

We should overwhelm China with diplomacy and not shy away from a global event of such importance just because of where the event lands on a map. America’s business leaders, elected officials, and diplomatic corps have the power to make sure these are the Winter Games and not the Splinter Games.

America’s business leaders, elected officials, and diplomatic corps should not shy away from this event with no comment, pithy political talking points, and a boycott that keeps our soft power skills on the sidelines. Sitting on the sidelines of these games might feel good in the short term, but it will do little to how the Chinese Communist Party governs China.

You need to play games to win games.

America can be the global leader in making these games a success and a positive turning point for fair competition and sporting values.

Let’s say no to the Splinter Games and yes to the Winter Games.

Marc A. Ross was communications director for the US-China Business Council and has worked on political campaigns for the highest offices in the United States and the United Kingdom. He is now the founder and chief strategist of Caracal, a global business intelligence firm. Follow him on Twitter: @marcaross

Soft power

Joseph Nye coined the term soft power in the late 1980s.

Simply put, soft power is a nation's ability to persuade others to do what it wants without force or coercion.

Nye states the world's most successful nations need both hard and soft power -- the ability to coerce others as well as the ability to shape their long-term attitudes and preferences.

Nye initially set out three primary sources of soft power: political values, culture, and foreign policy.

Traditionally, power in international relations is easily measurable metrics in inflexible terms - think military and economic might.

Soft power makes use of tactics that are often hard to measure, can take years to bear fruit, and aren't as sexy as a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.

But today, soft power matters more than ever and shuns carrots and sticks.

Soft power succeeds in building relationships, using communications and storytelling, operating under universal international rules, and harnessing a nation's unique resources that make a country attractive to the greater world.

The United States can undoubtedly dominate others through money and might, but America has excelled in using soft power.

From companies like Apple, foundations like Charity Water, universities like Stanford, to sports leagues like the National Basketball Association, America is a soft power hothouse.

When I read about the Thucydides Trap leading the US and China down a path to increased competition and possibly even war, I think no.

If the US can't succeed with Walt Disney World, Levi's, Tesla, Harvard, Serena Williams, Coca-Cola, Run DMC, Kelly Slater, and Detroit-style pizza, then what are we doing?

Sitting in London Heathrow a few years back, I was observing a family from Norway. The kids dressed in Under Armour, the parents were wearing smart casuals from the GAP, and the entire crew was teched-out in designed-in California Apple swag.

It was the all-American family living in Oslo.

US culture and aspirations have been influential in helping the US government secure partners and enhance alliances.

Sure there are limits of soft power: it tends to have diffuse effects like jello, and sometimes it is not skillfully wielded to achieve specific outcomes.

However, US economic success and security hinges as much on winning hearts and minds as it does on winning wars.

Plus, with more of the world easily accessed by trans-continental flights and the internet, countries like Germany, Canada, South Korea, India, and China are all using the same tools and tactics to improve their strength and influence.

Game on.