On a spy balloon.

I don't think Xi Jinping approved this, and I think this is a People's Liberation Army (PLA) inside hatchet job.

This spy balloon incident reminds me a lot of when Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited China in 2011, and the PLA revealed a new stealth jet.

"China conducted the first test flight of its stealth fighter just hours before US Defense Secretary Robert Gates sat down with President Hu Jintao here to mend frayed relations, undermining the meeting and prompting questions over whether China's civilian leadership is fully in control of the increasingly powerful armed forces."

Here's The Wall Street Journal article from January 2011: China shows its growing might: Stealth jet upstages Gates, Hu WSJ

And this from today's Financial Times:

"One question that could suggest how China will respond is whether Xi approved the mission or was unaware of it. In 2011, the US assessed that then Chinese president Hu Jintao was unaware that the PLA had tested a stealth fighter hours before he met then US defense secretary Robert Gates."

And more from today's Financial Times:

"Some experts (like me) believe the regret that came from China on Friday suggested that Xi had been caught off guard. One theory is that the Chinese president would have been unlikely to approve such a mission at this time because he is on a charm offensive to woo business back to China and needs to secure better relations with Washington."

Here's the Financial Times article: Violent end to spy balloon flight dashes chance of US-China reset FT

And this from today's Washington Post:

“In 2011, hours before receiving Defense Secretary Robert Gates in Beijing, the People’s Liberation Army staged a test flight of a new stealth fighter jet. When US officials raised the issue with President Hu Jintao, the leader, and his retinue appeared caught off guard.”

Here's the Washington Post article: China rushes to cap damage over suspected spy balloon as Blinken delays trip WP

It is important to note that China doesn't have a like-for-like National Security Act structure that the United States implemented after WWII.

In many ways, it is still the Wild West in Beijing, leading to questions on who really is in control of China's military.

At the same time, it is possible the spy balloon wasn't approved but encouraged, but when things went south, Xi Jinping could say, "I don't know anything."

Until proven otherwise, I don't think Xi knew or approved.

Frankly, it just seems too dumb that Xi would be all "we're open for business" in January to a few weeks later, let's send a balloon before America's secretary of state lands for a meeting.

Bottomline: Helluva of a system, the Chinese Communist Party.

If you need help navigating today's interconnected business environment with geopolitical intelligence, Caracal is here to help.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

Sound More Interesting at Cocktails Memo | February 3, 2023

25 talking points for better conversation at cocktails from news of the past week.

1. Russia has more than 320,000 soldiers in Ukraine.

2. The head of the Wagner group is known as a "general without epaulets."

3. US opens embassy in Solomon Islands amid China threat.

4. The US government has 18 intelligence agencies.

5. QOTW: "Who is this Tucker Carlson? All these wonderful Republicans seem somehow terrified of his perspective." -- Boris Johnson speaking at the Atlantic Council

6. US Senate Election 2024: All four border states that touch Mexico – Arizona, California, New Mexico, and Texas – have Senate races next year.

7. On average, White House chiefs of staff last eighteen months.

8. Arkansas Republican Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders will deliver the GOP response to Biden's SOTU.

9. Nikki Haley plans to announce her presidential run in Charleston on February 15 officially.

10. According to the The Canadian Automobile Association, the prices of EVs currently available in Canada can range from $39,498 to $189,000.

11. Canada moves to make one-fifth of all vehicle sales electric starting in 2026.

12. General Motors will invest $650 million in a US lithium mine to secure EV battery materials.

13. TravelCenters of America will partner with Electrify America to install 1,000 EV chargers at truck stops.

14. Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft broke their lobbying spending records last year as they fended off heightened scrutiny.

15. Apple's advertising unit generates about $4 billion annually.

16. Boeing delivers its last 747 after producing more than 1,500 planes.

17. ExxonMobil notched a record $59 billion in 2022 profit.

18. China's tourists are back: Gaming revenue in Macau jumped 82.5%.

19. More than 50% of employees in major cities are now working in person, according to building-security company Kastle Systems.

20. Scent-a Fe: New Mexico could be the first state with an official aroma.

21. The Sierra Nevada snowpack has been at its highest since 1995.

22. Nike's Jordan Brand brought in $5.1 billion in fiscal 2022.

23. The Seattle Sounders FC will celebrate its 50th anniversary next year, making them the oldest American club in MLS.

24. Marty Walsh, the labor secretary, has reportedly been approached to run the National Hockey League (NHL) players' union.

25. Trump courses will host three tournaments for Saudi-backed LIV Golf.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

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ITK Daily is geopolitical business intelligence for senior executives with global ambition.

ITK Daily curates news @ the intersection of globalization, disruption, politics, culture, + sport and provides actionable insights and sharp commentary.

Build your idea flow.

What makes a venture capitalist successful is that smart and creative people bring them new ideas.

A lot of new ideas.

A venture capitalist calls this process “deal flow.”

Deal flow describes the rate at which new business proposals drop into their inbox or the number of meetups they have.

Deal flow isn't a rigid measurement.

Deal flow is about access to new ideas.

But the better the deal flow, the better the venture capitalist.

What’s true for the venture capitalist is true for a senior executive with global ambition.

The more ideas that land in your inbox or the number of meetups you have, means more and better insights.

You need a process called “idea flow.”

Here are several tactics to help increase idea flow:

• Choose to be creative - creative people have one thing in common, they decide to be creative. 

• Expose yourself to new ideas and experiences - take an artabout, where you wander around a museum. Artabout, a word I created inspired by the Aussie word walkabout, is an informal stroll among art. The purpose of an artabout is a deliberate act where your brain can experience awe.  

Richard Sima in the Washington Post reports: By becoming less attuned to ourselves and more attuned to the rest of the world, awe helps us spark new ideas. Emerging research shows that experiencing awe may make us more curious and creative.

“It helps make you feel like there’s more going on in the world than just you. And it gives you that sense of being a part of something much bigger than yourself.” -- Paul Piff, an associate professor of psychological science at the University of California at Irvine

• Employ the shower effect - according to a 2022 study, one of the best tactics for sparking new ideas is to employ ʺmindlessʺ tasks that are engaging but not boring —  like walking, showering, or knitting, as opposed to watching ambient videos or doom-scrolling on social media.

• Get into the field - embrace your inner anthropologist and see how people engage with products, share ideas, and spark aha moments. 

• Start with a prompt - empty whitespace can be intimidating. Starting with a prompt, an image, or a letter as the foundation for idea dumps. There is a neurological reason Twitter prompts you with “what’s happening?” as a means to get you tweeting.

• Avoid benchmarking - Too often, executives will look to competitors for ideas. This benchmarking is about the past rather than what is possible. Benchmarking is an idea that has already been achieved and is not about embracing a new idea.

• Use a pencil and draw - Asking someone to describe Spring would be impossible. But asking someone to draw Spring, well, that can be visualized. Some ideas simply appear better on paper and cannot be spoken or described.

• Ask why questions - When presented with an idea or an answer, respond with “why?” Ideally, you can ask “why” five times. This tactic is called the 5 Whys. Watch this video to see it in practice here.

• Reframe the question - “If you change the way you look at things, the things you look at will change.” This quote is the first thing Errol Gerson says to his students at the start of each semester. Gerson has taught entrepreneurship, leadership, and business management at Art Center in Pasadena, CA, for nearly half a century. Gerson's challenge from the start is to get his students to look at the world around them differently. A tactic he calls "reframing" or merely seeing things differently. Sometimes a new idea is just waiting to pop out with a different or reframed perspective.

If you need help building your idea flow, Caracal is here to help.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

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ITK Daily is geopolitical business intelligence for senior executives with global ambition.

ITK Daily curates news @ the intersection of globalization, disruption, politics, culture, + sport and provides actionable insights and sharp commentary.