“WTAF is happening in American politics?”

My thoughts from a communications strategist perspective on recent developments in American politics:

One - In the high-stakes arena of American politics, we're witnessing a clash of Dem factions.

This political situation is the Cuban Missile Crisis of our time but on the home front.

President Biden is determined to secure a second term, a hallmark of the greatest presidents. Despite firey tensions between the Obama and Clinton factions, his team is fiercely committed to continuing the campaign.

The principle of inertia—Newton's first law—aptly describes Biden's current trajectory.

An object in motion stays in motion unless acted upon by an external force.

As long as Biden remains on the ticket, his momentum builds, making his continued presence more likely unless a significant external event intervenes.

An op-ed from Hollywood prince Geoge Clooney isn't the significant external event that will change Biden's motion.

Two: Last night's Biden press conference highlighted a fascinating contrast between political and foreign policy reporters.

Political reporters focused on style, poll numbers, and the horse race of politics, much like ESPN covers the college football playoffs. In stark contrast, foreign policy reporters delved into policy, world knowledge, and the geopolitics of the global game, like Miranda Priestly's question about cerulean blue.

This difference underscores the varied lenses through which news is interpreted and reported.

Political reporters often focus on the immediate public interest and drama of electoral contests, while foreign policy reporters provide a deeper analysis of international relations and strategic implications.

Three: George Clooney's op-ed has sparked a significant conversation and is a cross-over communications moment about Joe Biden's candidacy.

Clooney's perspective, while well-intentioned and well-encouraged by certain Dem factions, the comments do not resonate with the everyday American worker.

As Chris Matthews pointed out on MSNBC, Biden's strength lies in his resilience and deep connection with key Democratic constituencies, including minorities, Hispanics, and labor unions.

Biden's journey, marked by personal loss and recovery, has endeared him to many.

His ability to connect with voters personally is a crucial asset as he navigates the political landscape. Calls for Biden to step aside often come from those still reeling from past political defeats and may not reflect the sentiment of the broader Democratic base.

George Clooney might have just saved Joe Biden's job.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

AI rides the "Hype Cycle"

Parmy Olson, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering technology, is out with a must-read post.

Her column says recent surveys indicate a cooling of enthusiasm for AI in the business world.

Concerns about accuracy, expenses, and data protection have led many companies to scale back their adoption of cutting-edge AI solutions.

Lucidworks reports that the percentage of global firms planning to boost AI spending in the coming year has dropped from 93% to 63%. In the US, AI adoption remains low, with only 5% of companies utilizing the technology, according to Census Bureau data.

This trend aligns with the "trough of disillusionment" phase in Gartner's Hype Cycle, suggesting a period of reassessment following initial excitement.

Leading AI companies like OpenAI and Google continue to set ambitious goals, from generating wealth for humanity to addressing global challenges like climate change and disease. However, these lofty aspirations may be disconnected from practical business needs.

Implementing broad-spectrum AI across an entire workforce often proves challenging. Tech giants promoting AI tools should set realistic expectations about adoption timelines and focus on specific, targeted applications.

AI currently excels in specialized domains rather than as a universal solution. Business leaders who recognize its potential for niche applications, rather than viewing it as an all-encompassing answer, are more likely to leverage AI effectively within their organizations.

The bottom line is that AI's practical business adoption is facing a reality check.

While the technology shows promise, it's not a universal solution.

Companies are becoming more cautious and selective in their AI investments, focusing on specific, targeted applications rather than broad implementation.

For AI to be truly useful in business, leaders need to recognize its strengths in niche areas and avoid treating it as a cure-all technology. This shift represents a more mature, pragmatic approach to AI adoption, moving away from hype and towards finding concrete, valuable use cases.

You can read Olson's full opinion column here.

—Marc

The situation determines the tactic.

A proper tactic is not only about what job needs to be done; it is also about comprehending the environment of the situation.

David Snowden and Mary Boone formulated a useful framework that considers the situation's environment and determines which tactic is best for the job.

On the framework, Harvard Business Review writes: "Many executives are surprised when previously successful leadership approaches fail in new situations, but different contexts call for different kinds of responses. Before addressing a situation, leaders need to recognize which context governs it—and tailor their actions accordingly."

Snowden and Boone called their tool the Cynefin framework.

Cynefin, pronounced ku-nev-in, is a Welsh word that signifies that multiple factors in our environment and our experiences influence us in ways that we can never fully recognize or understand.

Snowden explains that the literal translation of cynefin means “habitat or place, but what it actually means is the place of your multiple belongings.”

By this, Snowden means our perspectives and responses to a situation result from multiple factors, including our multiple experiences, memberships, associations, and surroundings. This mashed-up cocktail influences us in ways we don’t fully recognize or understand.

Unlike other models, the Cynefin framework is a sense-making model and not a categorization model.

A categorization model is the classic 2x2 matrix where the framework precedes the data.

A sense-making model is where the data precedes the framework.

You can watch him discuss the concept of the framework here.

The Cynefin framework allows you to sort a situation into one of five environments:

Simple.

Complicated.

Complex.

Chaotic.

Disorder.

So, depending on your situation, you should respond differently and with a tactic that is proper and proportional to it.

Each situation requires a different tactic. Of the five situations, the first four are the clearest and most obvious.

Still, for the globally ambitious executives reading this, you will most often find yourself in a disorder situation.

The first problem you will face in responding to a disorder situation will occur without you even knowing it.

Your top-of-mind response will be based on your personal preferences and previously most successful tactic shaped by your multiple experiences, memberships, associations, and surroundings.

Your top-of-mind response will be based on accessing the situation based on your preferred tactic.

The danger you will face is your favorite tactic which worked swimmingly in the past for a clear and obvious situation, won’t work now because there is a new reality. A new situation. A new disorder.

The Cynefin framework allows you to recognize that your actions must match the reality you find yourself in through a sense-making process.

If you need help determining the proper tactic for your situation, Caracal is here to help.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc