The Knowledge meets the algorithm

On May 17, 60 Minutes returned to a story I first wrote about back in 2019. The framing then was simple. Uber's mapping technology could not find my house in Old Town Alexandria, and London's cabbies, with their 161-year-old test called the Knowledge, were running circles around Silicon Valley.

Seven years later, the analog and digital sides of that fight are still in the ring, but the stakes have shifted. Waymo, owned by Alphabet, says it is now five times safer than a human driver and clocks more than two million miles per week across eleven US cities. Wayve, a British startup backed by Nvidia and Microsoft, is training its AI on London's roundabouts without first mapping the city. Both are racing to put robotaxis on London's streets later this year.

Meanwhile, London's licensed cab fleet has shrunk from 25,000 drivers a decade ago to 16,000 today. 60 Minutes followed cabbies as they worked to pass this grueling test. In the story, Steven Fairbrass has been studying for the Knowledge for eight years and just failed his 20th attempt. Anshu Moorjani finally passed on his 41st try after five years of trying. The exam still requires memorizing 25,000 streets and 6,000 points of interest. A University College London neuroscience study holds up after all this time. The posterior hippocampus, the brain's memory center, physically enlarges over the course of a cabbie's career.

So who wins?

That is the wrong question. The right question is who is communicating effectively, because the analog-digital fight in London is not really a technology story. It is a communications story, and both sides are losing it.

Three things this means for global executives operating in any category where deep tradition meets exponential technology:

The cabbies have a great story and no platform: The Knowledge is one of the world's most extraordinary professional credentials. It changes the brain's literal structure. It dates to 1865, when horse-drawn cabmen first sat for it. It requires roughly 50,000 miles of preparation on foot, by bicycle, and on a motor scooter before a candidate ever gets near a steering wheel. Tom Scullion, a 34-year veteran of the cabbie trade, put it wryly on camera. His Knowledge is to Google Maps what Gordon Ramsay is to a hot dog vendor.

That is great copy. It is also nowhere near the volume or reach of what Alphabet and Nvidia can put behind their case. The cabbies are speaking through individual interviews, union pickets, and word of mouth. Waymo is speaking through five-times-safer data points, polished co-CEO appearances on national television, and billions of dollars in marketing infrastructure. London's cabbies are functionally a heritage brand with terrible distribution. Heritage brands without distribution lose, regardless of product quality.

The robotaxi companies have great data and a credibility problem they refuse to address: Waymo's safety numbers are real. The sensor stack of 29 cameras, 6 radars, 5 microphones, and 5 lidar units is genuinely superhuman. The simulation training is impressive. None of that, however, is what shows up in the public record when a Waymo drives through an active police scene in Los Angeles, blocks emergency responders, or illegally passes a stopped school bus, leading to a software recall and a federal investigation.

The sector treats these incidents as edge cases and statistical noise. To regulators, mayors, transit unions, parents, and Transport for London, those incidents are the entire conversation. The communications failure here is not denial. It is tone. Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana, on camera, referring to Waymo as a driver with three lifetimes of experience per week, is technically accurate and emotionally tone-deaf. Voters and policymakers do not want a three-lifetime statistical entity making decisions about their streets. They want accountability with a name and a face. The robotaxi sector has not solved that problem, and pretending it does not exist is itself a strategic choice with consequences.

The regulators will resolve this fight, not the technologists: Transport for London has not yet approved driverless commercial pickup. Waymo and Wayve are testing under human supervision. Whichever side of this argument, analog or digital, captures the regulator's confidence first will set the terms for the next decade. That is a communications and stakeholder engagement contest. It is decided in select committee hearings, City Hall briefings, op-ed pages, transit safety boards, and the careful management of every single edge-case incident that makes the evening news.

The same pattern is playing out across every category where deep tradition meets exponential technology. Legal services. Medical diagnostics. Education. Manufacturing. Financial advisory. Aviation. In each case, the analog incumbents have brand equity, cultural standing, and stories of mastery that they fail to translate. In each one, the digital challengers have scale, data, and capital, but cannot speak the language of regulators, employees, and the affected public.

Seven years ago, I wrote that Uber could not find my house. The mapping has gotten better. The communications challenge has gotten harder. The Knowledge, in 2026, is no longer just about memorizing streets. It is about knowing who you need to convince, and in what order.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc.

You can always reach me @ marc@caracal.global

*****

Caracal Global is your communications partner for global business, at the intersection of commerce and governments. We monitor geopolitical signals daily: tariff announcements, military movements, policy shifts, trade negotiations, export control changes, and competitive positioning. We translate those signals into messages that your boards, investors, employees, customers, regulators, and the broader public understand.

Geopolitics + Communications. Intelligence, Strategy, and Communications for Fortune 1,000 companies, private equity portfolio firms, and founder-led businesses operating in an environment of permanent disruption. Detroit-born, with deep roots in the Global Great Lakes region. Active in Washington, DC, and London.

Most companies treat communications as the function that explains decisions after they are made. We treat it as the function that shapes how decisions are understood, before, during, and after.

Caracal Global is your Chief Communications Strategist.

Always Be Communicating.

Learn more at caracal.global.

24 books on China that global executives should read

China is all over the news. Tariff exposure. Supply chain rerouting. Hormuz and Malacca shipping math. Taiwan contingency planning. AI and semiconductor export controls. Rare earths concentration. Capital flow restrictions. Global executives are fielding harder questions about China than at any point since Nixon went to Beijing, and most are answering them based on headlines and cable news talking heads.

Headlines are not a strategy. They are weather reports. Strategy requires depth, the kind that comes from reading the people who spent careers inside the country, inside the Party, inside the deal rooms, and inside the supply chains.

I initially crafted this list in December 2020. Six years on, the environment has shifted dramatically. Xi has consolidated power. Trump has returned. The PLA has been purged, with roughly 20 Chinese generals removed since March 2023. The Belt and Road has changed shape. American sentiment on China has hardened across both parties. AF1 has landed in Beijing under a second-term president working with a weaker hand than he played in 2018. But the books on this list still work. They explain how China got here, how the Party actually thinks, how the economy functions beneath the official statistics, and how Beijing engages the rest of the world.

This is not a list for graduate students. It is for the senior executive who has to answer a board question on Tuesday, a customer question on Wednesday, and a reporter question on Thursday. It cannot answer any of them with a press release.

Three on the Party itself and how it runs the country:

The Party: The Secret World of China's Communist Rulers by Richard McGregor. Still the best opening text on how the CCP operates inside the state. Read this first.

The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State by Elizabeth C. Economy. The Xi consolidation thesis was written before most analysts had caught up.

China Goes Global: The Partial Power by David Shambaugh. A disciplined assessment of how much China actually projects abroad versus how much it claims to.

Four on the economy beneath the headline GDP number:

Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise by Carl Walter. The plumbing. Painful, technical, essential. The book that made the Evergrande story predictable.

The China Strategy: Harnessing the Power of the World's Fastest-Growing Economy by Edward Tse. The operator's view of the inside of the multinational China strategy.

Dealing with China: An Insider Unmasks the New Economic Superpower by Henry M. Paulson Jr. The dealmaker's memoir. Useful for understanding how senior Beijing relationships were actually built during the engagement era.

Beijing Jeep: A Case Study of Western Business in China by Jim Mann. The original cautionary tale. Every foreign CEO entering China should read this before getting on the plane.

Three on China going global:

China's Second Continent by Howard French. Chinese migration, investment, and influence across Africa. The book that reframes the Belt and Road conversation.

China's Silent Army: The Pioneers, Traders, Fixers, and Workers Who Are Remaking the World in Beijing's Image by Juan Pablo Cardenal. Reporting from the field across the developing world. Where the New Silk Road actually touches the ground.

Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power by Robert D. Kaplan. The maritime theater. If you do not understand the Indian Ocean, you do not understand Chinese energy security or American national security.

Four on the American policy conversation, in its own words:

Obama and China's Rise: An Insider's Account of America's Asia Strategy by Jeffrey A. Bader. The Pivot to Asia from inside the Situation Room. Useful for tracing the origins of the current China policy.

On China by Henry Kissinger. Necessary context for the diplomatic logic that built the engagement framework. Read it knowing the framework has evolved.

The World America Made by Robert Kagan. The case for American primacy. The intellectual scaffolding under the current China hawkishness.

Blaming China: It Might Feel Good, But It Won't Fix America's Economy by Benjamin Shobert. The contrarian read from a one-time Brigadoon Utah speaker. Sharpens your thinking by attacking the easy narrative.

Four on the long view:

The Penguin History of Modern China: The Fall and Rise of a Great Power, 1850 to 2009 by Jonathan Fenby. The single-volume history. Start here if you are starting at zero.

Will China Dominate the 21st Century? by Jonathan Fenby. The companion analytical volume. Useful even if the answer has shifted since publication.

The Dragon and the Foreign Devils: China and the World, 1100 BC to the Present by Harry Gelber. The deepest historical lens on the list. Reminds you that China was a great power long before it was a developing one.

When America First Met China: An Exotic History of Tea, Drugs, and Money in the Age of Sail by Eric Jay Dolin. The earliest chapter of the US-China commercial relationship. Useful for executives who think the relationship started with Nixon.

Four on China at street level:

Age of Ambition: Chasing Fortune, Truth, and Faith in the New China by Evan Osnos. The best single book on what Chinese citizens actually believe and want. Won the National Book Award. Earns it.

China Road: A Journey into the Future of a Rising Power by Rob Gifford. Route 312 across China. The country at ground level.

The Forbidden Game: Golf and the Chinese Dream by Dan Washburn. China, through the lens of an industry that the Party officially banned and unofficially built. Better business reportage than most business books.

Brave Dragons: A Chinese Basketball Team, an American Coach, and Two Cultures Clashing by Jim Yardley. The cultural collision compressed into one season. Funny, useful, and a faster read than anything else on this list.

Two on the trade and supply chain frame:

Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization by Stephen S. Roach. The Morgan Stanley view of regional economic integration. The framing still maps onto current supply chain conversations.

The Travels of a T-Shirt in the Global Economy: An Economist Examines the Markets, Power, and Politics of World Trade by Pietra Rivoli. The single best book on how global trade actually moves through a real product, and a foundational text from my GWU class on Globalization and American Politics. If you have one tariff conversation this year, read this first.

Working through the list takes about a quarter if you push it, and about two quarters if you read it like a normal executive. The investment is small. The strategic return is significant. Board members will notice. So will customers, regulators, and journalists who continue to call about your exposure to China.

Caracal Global provides fractional Chief Geopolitical Officer services to Fortune 1000 companies and private equity portfolio firms navigating tariff volatility, China exposure, supply chain disruption, and a US political environment that is reshaping regulatory frameworks on a quarterly basis. Four service tiers, Advisory, Representative, Senator, and Presidential, are calibrated to how deeply you need geopolitical intelligence embedded with your leadership team. 

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly. 

-Marc.

You can always reach me @ marc@caracal.global.

Trump's poor hand for dealing with Xi

Trump arrives in China tomorrow, it will be evening Beijing time when AF1 lands, with the worst political hand any American president has brought into a state visit to China.

His job approval sits at 36%. Inflation sits at 3.8% and is rising due to higher prices for gasoline and groceries. A war in Iran that the administration cannot end and is preparing to rename. A Supreme Court ruling unwinds tariff revenue. A coalition cracking on Hispanic, Black, and young voters. A British ally whose government is disintegrating. A European bloc is fragmenting into national-level Russia diplomacy. A Gulf order that just disclosed covert strikes on Iran from the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Xi Jinping has done none of this. He has only watched and waited.

Beijing did not engineer Trump's vulnerability. The Iran war did. But Beijing will most certainly take advantage of it.

Here is what to expect when Trump and Xi meet.

Big purchase announcements. Hundreds of Boeing aircraft. Agricultural commodities. Possibly LNG and crude. Trade gestures designed to give Trump a victory narrative for the flight home. Carefully ambiguous language on Taiwan that Beijing will read maximally and Washington will read minimally. A request from Xi, both public or private, for the United States to soften arms sales to Taipei.

A possible Chinese signal of cooperation on Iran, calibrated to extract the maximum concession for the minimum delivery, because Beijing is Iran's largest trade partner and the top buyer of its oil, and will not sell that leverage cheaply.

What you will not get from the summit is a structural reset.

Nomura's chief China economist called this meeting more of a risk-management exercise than a relationship-building one. The Council on Foreign Relations called the summit relationship stabilization, not resolution.

Both are right.

Three things this means for global boardrooms:

First, treat any announcement from Beijing as a 60-day political product. The American blue-chip CEO delegation tagging along with Trump, which includes Cook, Musk, Fink, Schwarzman, Fraser, Solomon, Ortberg, et al., is the audience to watch, helping prop up the US-China relationship. The deliverables will be timed for the news cycle, not the operating cycle.

Second, watch the Taiwan language. Any drift from "does not support" Taiwanese independence to "opposes" it is the most consequential commercial signal of the year. That is the shift Xi asked Biden for in 2024 and will ask Trump for this week. It reprices defense procurement, semiconductor sourcing, and Asia-Pacific insurance markets in a single sentence.

Third, the Connected Vehicle Security Act is the commercial reality for Trump. Senators from the Global Great Lakes, Slotkin (D-MI) and Moreno (R-OH), introduced a bill with a matching House companion to enact a Chinese auto ban in the US, regardless of any positive business news from Beijing. Legislators representing auto workers and companies telegraphed their red line in advance of Trump's visit. Your government affairs team should be making the same calculation in your sector this week. What Chinese business opportunities cannot live without?

The Caracal Global scope

This is the moment when intelligence, strategy, and communications stop being three separate functions and become one. Caracal Global provides fractional Chief Geopolitical Officer support for exactly this kind of week. Four tiers. Advisory, Representative, Senator, Presidential. The conversation we should be having starts with how the Beijing summit reshapes your operating environment.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc.

You can always reach me @ marc@caracal.global.

*****

Caracal Global is your fractional Chief Geopolitical Officer. We monitor geopolitical signals daily: tariff announcements, military movements, policy shifts, trade negotiations, export control changes, and competitive positioning. We translate those signals into what they mean for your business. And we help your board move from reaction to strategy.

Michigan-born, DC-based, operating at the intersection of globalization and American politics. Intelligence, Strategy, and Communications — for Fortune 1000 companies and PE portfolio firms that need geopolitical capacity without the overhead of a full-time hire.

Learn more at caracal.global.

*****