Caracal Global Daily
Caracal Global Daily is a human-curated global intelligence briefing that connects geopolitical developments, economic trends, and strategic business insights.
February 4, 2026
Detroit, MI
*** Ross Rant ***
The Musk merger: Why vertical integration is the new geopolitical strategy
When SpaceX acquired xAI this week to create a $1 trillion vertically-integrated behemoth spanning artificial intelligence, rockets, satellite internet, and social media, Elon Musk framed it as humanity's march to the stars. CEOs should read it differently. This is an MBA case study on how geopolitical complexity forces companies to consolidate control across supply chains, government relations, and other areas to avoid fragmentation risk.
Musk's memo to employees promised "the most ambitious, vertically-integrated innovation engine on (and off) Earth."
Strip away the sci-fi diction about "sentient suns" and Kardashev scales (a hypothetical method for ranking civilizations by their energy consumption), and the business logic becomes clear. In an era where AI development requires massive capital, regulatory approvals span multiple jurisdictions, and government contracts determine competitive advantage, controlling the entire tech stack, from hardware to software to distribution to political influence, this move isn't megalomania. It's risk management.
The deal reveals three strategic imperatives for how US businesses must operate in today's environment.
First, supply chain sovereignty matters more than efficiency. Musk plans to launch up to 1 million satellites for orbital data centers, claiming that space will offer lower computing costs within 3 years. Whether that's technically feasible is debatable. What's not debatable is the strategic logic: controlling your entire supply chain—from launch capabilities to energy sources to computing infrastructure—insulates you from trade wars, export controls, and geopolitical disruption. Companies that relied on "just-in-time" global sourcing learned this lesson painfully during the pandemic and Team Trump's tariffs. Musk is betting that vertical integration from Earth to orbit is the next evolution.
Second, government relationships are infrastructure, not incidentals. SpaceX is a principal defense contractor. xAI faces international investigations over Grok's content violations. Starlink wields geopolitical influence that makes world leaders nervous. The merger doesn't resolve these tensions; it amplifies them and strengthens Musk's long-term ambitions. For CEOs, the lesson is direct: When your business model depends on government contracts, regulatory approvals, and international operations, stakeholder engagement isn't a communications function. It's a strategic infrastructure requiring continuous investment, sophisticated coordination, and executive-level attention.
Third, expect persistent volatility, not temporary disruption. Musk's $250 billion acquisition of xAI comes as rival AI companies race to go public, investors speculate about an eventual Tesla integration, and SpaceX pursues both a public offering and lunar factories. This week's merger isn't an endpoint; it is just the start of Musk's plans for continuous consolidation and reconfiguration.
Companies that build strategies assuming a return to stability are planning for the wrong future.
Caracal Global is a geopolitical business communications firm specializing in Globalization + American Politics, providing Intelligence + Strategy + Communications services for Fortune 1,000 senior executives navigating today's interconnected business environment where commerce and statecraft have become inseparable.
The Musk merger won't be the last time a billionaire consolidates private empires to navigate geopolitical complexity.
The question for every CEO is whether your company has the capabilities, relationships, and strategic flexibility to compete in this new hyper-geopolitical environment, or whether you're still optimizing for a world that no longer exists.
-Marc
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
Should globalists give up? A riveting and depressing argument is tackled in a new book, “The Doom Loop.” Economist
The world is more equal than you think: Rich and poor consumers are seeing their spending patterns converge. Economist
Countdown to an arms race: The last significant nuclear-arms-control treaty is about to expire, and Trump isn’t putting anything in its place. Tom Nichols
A new nuclear arms race beckons: America wants more nukes to deter Russia and China. Economist
The hero who betrayed his country: An ethnic Russian serving in Estonia’s military had something to hide. Now he’s in prison as a convicted traitor. Michael Weiss
Ukraine seeks countermeasures against Russian drones equipped with Starlink: Le Monde reports that a wave of highly accurate and deadly strikes on civilian and military targets far from the front lines has led the Ukrainian government to ask Elon Musk for help. Musk claims to have taken the necessary steps to disable Starlink terminals being used by the Russian military.
US-Iranian talks are still expected after Gulf flare-ups: WSJ reports Iranian gunboats try to stop a US-flagged ship, and a drone flies close to an aircraft carrier.
US jet downs Iran drone but talks still on course: Le Monde reports Central Command spokesman Captain Tim Hawkins said in a statement that 'An F-35C fighter jet from Abraham Lincoln shot down the Iranian drone in self-defense.' The aircraft carrier was dispatched to the Arabian Sea last month amid a buildup of US forces.
Trump’s UAE chip deal is a national security risk Timothy L. O'Brien
+ The United Arab Emirates has been seeking access to advanced US chips to help cement its position as a technology hub and fuel its AI aspirations, but the Biden administration has rebuffed them due to concerns that the chips might end up in Beijing.
+ The Trump administration, however, sealed a deal with the UAE that included advanced chips, with the number of chips shipped annually to the UAE set to quintuple, and a portion destined for a company with business relationships with Chinese tech companies.
+ The deal has raised concerns about conflicts of interest, with reports that an enterprise backed by Sheikh Tahnoon secretly agreed to pay $500 million for a 49% stake in a Trump family-backed company, and that Trump's family has benefited financially from the transaction.
The US says it has deployed a small military team to Nigeria to strengthen the fight against jihadists: Le Monde reports Trump has alleged there is a 'genocide' of Christians in Nigeria, a claim rejected by the Nigerian government and many independent experts, who say the country's security crises claim the lives of both Christians and Muslims, often without distinction.
America’s critical-minerals strategy looks increasingly Chinese: WSJ reports the plan for the newly created US Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve borrows from Beijing’s longstanding playbook.
Nvidia AI chip sales to China stalled by US security review: FT reports the state department has pushed for close scrutiny before approving export licences.
Ruptures in China’s leadership could be due to paranoia and power plays: US intelligence analysts say that Xi Jinping, China’s leader, has a remarkable level of fear. He has carried out mass purges and surprised many by removing his top general. NYT
Xi’s military purge might be dangerous for the US James Stavridis
Can Sanae Takaichi govern Japan on star power alone? The new prime minister has revived the LDP, which had appeared poised to collapse. But if she wins this week’s elections, she will face harsh realities. FT
Power in Thailand now runs through a soccer-mad rural strongman: Bloomberg reports Bangkok’s royalist establishment is looking to Newin Chidchob to help fend off pro-democracy reformers and form a government in the Feb. 8 election.
WSJ: Milan takes the lead as Europe’s hottest housing market
Toronto Star: France dumps Zoom and Teams as Europe seeks digital autonomy from the US
Fernández wins Costa Rican presidency, steering Latin America further right: Guardian reports right-wing populist elected in landslide after promising to crack down on rising violence linked to cocaine trade.
Venezuela’s authoritarian grip eases. But for how long? NYT reports a weeping amnesty proposal, tests of censorship limits, and opposition leaders emerging from hiding are fueling hopes for democratic changes. But skepticism abounds.
Canada viewed as most positive leader on world stage: Ipsos survey for Halifax International Security Forum finds Iran, Israel are considered least likely to have a positive impact on world affairs over the next decade.
Mark Carney, a prime minister seeking to free Canada from US dominance: As the international order weakens, the Canadian leader has moved on from the Trudeau era, when his predecessor was seen as naive on the world stage, and to assert himself against hegemonic powers – starting with his American neighbor. Eliott Dumoulin
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Politico: Congress ends shutdown, approves $1.2T in funding — and sets up DHS cliff
House approves measure to end partial government shutdown: WSJ reports Trump signed the bill into law, setting the stage for immigration enforcement talks.
The Epstein rot goes deep: America must now ask itself if it can restore a culture of shame. Edward Luce
Express: Epstein was 'probably a Russian spy', Polish PM says - 'He has compromising material'
Epstein was probably a Russian spy, says Tusk: Telegraph reports Poland to examine ‘increasingly likely possibility that paedophilia scandal was co-organised by intelligence services’ in Moscow.
Express: Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor reported to police amid Epstein allegations
The Times: ‘Humiliated’ Andrew moves out of Royal Lodge
The Times: Sarah Ferguson ‘suggested woman for Epstein to marry’ in email
The Times: Mandelson faces full criminal investigation over Epstein emails
+ JD Vance has ratcheted pressure on Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor to testify before US lawmakers over his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein.
+ @MattSunRoyal: Andrew Mountbatten Windsor has been moved out of Royal Lodge under the cover of darkness and begun his exile in Sandringham.
House cancels contempt vote as Clintons agree to testify on Epstein: NYT reports the move comes after Bill and Hillary Clinton agreed to be deposed on camera this month and requested that they be allowed to do so at public hearings.
After Republicans push Clintons to testify on Epstein, Democrats warn they'll haul in Trump: NBC News reports Democrats say Republicans have set a new precedent with subpoenas of an ex-president and first lady. "We will follow it ... Donald Trump, all of his kids. Everybody," Rep. Maxwell Frost said.
Bloomberg: Goldman defense of lawyer’s Epstein ties provokes unease at bank
Trump is doubling down on all the wrong things: Republicans are worried about the midterm elections, but the president doesn’t seem to be. Jonathan Lemire
Donald Trump has built a clicktatorship: Even the administration’s budget proposals read like Truth Social posts. Donald Moynihan
How Stephen Miller stokes Trump’s boundary-pushing impulses: The White House aide has been an architect of aggressive immigration sweeps in US cities and deadly boat strikes in the Caribbean. WSJ
Thank God for Melania Trump: Imagine the harm her husband could do with an Evita by his side. Economist
Trump doubles down on calls for Republicans to nationalize elections: WSJ reports resident says federal government agents should be involved in counting votes, a role the Constitution explicitly grants to states.
Senate GOP Leader John Thune says he disagrees with Trump that Congress should 'nationalize' elections: NBC News reports Trump said Monday that Republicans "ought to nationalize the voting," but Thune said the current system of states' running elections has "worked pretty well."
Mamdani’s surprising spirit animal: Mike Bloomberg: Politico reports the new mayor puts in long hours and is laser-focused on public relations.
Republicans are freaking out about Hispanic voters after a Texas upset: Politico reports Democrats flipped a deep-red state senate district over the weekend that has the party worried about November.
3 Florida House Republicans are exiting Congress. Now the mess begins. The Sunshine State is expecting to see three open House seats heading into the 2026 cycle. Politico
FL-GOV: Florida gubernatorial candidate James Fishback (R) said he joined the dating app Tinder “to meet young female voters where they are, and share my plan to make it easier for them to get married, buy a home, and raise a family.”
Gavin Newsom is playing the long game: California’s governor has been touted as the Democrats’ best shot in 2028. But first, he’ll need to convince voters that he’s not just a slick establishment politician. Nathan Heller
Gavin Newsom is setting his own rules Maya Singer
CNN: Jill Biden’s ex-husband faces murder charge in death of his current wife
Citadel’s Ken Griffin says Trump White House has ‘enriched’ family members: FT reports Wall Street figure and Republican donor offers rare public criticism of perceived administration’s self-dealing.
Netflix leader pushes Warner deal before skeptical lawmakers: NYT reports Senators asked Ted Sarandos about whether the acquisition would raise prices, squeeze talent, and degrade the moviegoing experience.
NYT: Trump scolds CNN’s Kaitlan Collins for ‘not smiling’
Anger is deadly to moderate politicians: AI-driven disruption is about to make the world a more resentful place. Economist
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
Space tourism raises ‘urgent’ fertility questions, NASA says: As more people travel beyond Earth, scientists have warned that the risks to reproductive health from zero-gravity and radiation remain little understood. The Times
Artemis is a throwback to the golden age of lunar exploration: This US programme must contend with the difficulties of returning humans to the Moon for the first time in more than 50 years. Anjana Ahuja
How Elon Musk used SpaceX to rescue xAI and build a $1.25tn colossus: Billionaire folds rocket maker into a loss-making AI start-up, betting scale and control can beat rivals to blockbuster IPO. FT
The out-of-this-world reasons for Elon Musk’s SpaceX deal: The billionaire is turning to his old playbook to keep his AI ambitions aloft. Tim Higgins
Elon Musk’s mega-merger makes little business sense: The AI economy’s dealmaking keeps getting wilder. Economist
WP: Paris police raid X offices as part of expanded criminal probe
Why French prosecutors investigating X summoned Elon Musk: Le Monde reports that the French investigation that led to a raid on the Paris offices of X on Tuesday is examining a wide range of alleged offenses.
+ Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, said his government would seek to ban social media for under-16s.
FT: US stocks drop on fears AI will hit software and analytics groups
+ Tech stocks fell after Anthropic, an artificial-intelligence firm, launched an AI tool that can automate some legal work. Shares in legal and data-services companies plummeted first, including those of Thomson Reuters
You won’t find salvation in AI Catherine Thorbecke
+ People are turning to artificial intelligence for guidance, with uses including therapy, companionship, and finding purpose.
+ AI is being treated like a deity, with platforms like DeepSeek and GitaGPT becoming popular, and some people even worshiping AI in a pseudo-religious way.
+ Religious leaders are pushing back against the trend, with some calling for regulation to protect against emotional attachments to chatbots and the spread of manipulative content.
Bloomberg: Nvidia nears deal to invest $20 billion in OpenAI round
WSJ: Microsoft’s pivotal AI product is running into big problems
The political cost of America’s surging electricity bills: Data centres powering the AI boom are straining grids and causing price rises that could hurt Trump. FT
PayPal replaced CEO Alex Chriss, who led for two and a half years, with Enrique Lores, the longtime HP executive and current board chair, effective March 1.
Disney said that Josh D’Amaro will become its chief executive on March 18th.
Disney’s future now depends on the ultimate theme park insider: WSJ reports shareholders will be looking for Josh D’Amaro to generate value after the company has underperformed the broader stock market for years.
Disney’s new boss must not forget its creative magic: Josh D’Amaro faces a tricky balancing act. Economist
A new ruler for the Magic Kingdom: Disney’s pick to replace Bob Iger reflects the iconic brand’s urgency to evolve or die. WP-Editorial
Disney's next C-suite task is keeping Dana Walden in the empire: A new title and expanded duties could go a long way to retain the Hollywood power player. Bloomberg
WP: PepsiCo cuts prices on Lays, Doritos amid high food costs, GLP-1 growth
Walmart joins tech giants with a $1 trillion market valuation: WSJ reports that the company’s rapid e-commerce growth and push into automation and artificial intelligence have propelled its stock into the trillion-dollar club.
The $20 side dish is here Adam Reiner
Private jet sellers rattled by Trump threats on Canadian-made aircraft: FT reports US president’s vow to ‘decertify’ planes and impose tariffs of 50% hits Bombardier’s shares.
Kalshi + Polymarket are using the promise of free groceries to win over New Yorkers, with Kalshi offering $50 in free groceries to customers and Polymarket planning to open a free grocery store.
*** Culture ***
Transparent toilets take Tokyo’s vulture of hygiene to the next level: Don't worry—once their doors are locked, smart glass technology ensures the exteriors become opaque. AD
+ @readswithravi: Books are so cool because there are NO FUCKING ADS IN THEM.
‘The Odyssey’ director Christopher Nolan takes on the industry’s troubles as DGA president: Variety reports: 'The loss of a major studio is a huge blow,' the Oscar-winning director says in his first interview in the role of union leader.
One last Sundance in Park City: The most important film festival in America bade farewell to its Utah roots. Justin Chang
*** Sport ***
Winter Olympics host Italy fires up snow cannons for alpine skiers: Bloomberg reports artificial snow has become an essential insurance policy for ski resorts worldwide as global warming shortens winter seasons and makes conditions increasingly unpredictable.
Lindsey Vonn will compete at the 2026 Winter Olympics despite a torn ACL.
Deadline: Donald Trump to sit down with anchor Tom Llamas for Super Bowl pregame and ‘Nightly News’ interview
WSJ: NFL again grapples with a lack of diversity in its latest hiring cycle
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Global Daily | February 3
Caracal Global Daily
Caracal Global Daily is a human-curated global intelligence briefing that connects geopolitical developments, economic trends, and strategic business insights.
February 3, 2026
Detroit, MI
*** Ross Rant ***
The business case for a Chief Geopolitics Officer
When JPMorgan Chase launched its Center for Geopolitics in May 2025, naming Derek Chollet, a counselor to former Secretary of State Antony Blinken and chief of staff to former Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, to lead it, CEO Jamie Dimon was blunt: "Our greatest risk is geopolitical risk." The unit's advisory board reads like a national security all-star roster: former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, and former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mark Milley.
This move wasn't corporate theater. It was recognition of a fundamental shift in global business.
Citigroup followed suit, bringing on Robert Lighthizer, Trump's former trade representative. McKinsey and Russell Reynolds report surging demand among Fortune 500 companies for executives with geopolitical expertise, often recruited from military, intelligence, and government backgrounds. These moves signal that the assumptions underpinning global commerce for three decades have shattered.
The data confirms what boardrooms increasingly understand. The Geopolitical Risk with Trade Index has surged approximately 30% since 2020, compared to the previous two decades. The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index has nearly tripled. The use of sanctions has more than tripled since 2019. Restrictions on exports of industrial raw materials increased fivefold between 2009 and 2023, now targeting not just military items but also cutting-edge technologies such as semiconductors, AI, and quantum computing.
Companies that once worried primarily about exchange rates and regulatory compliance now navigate trade wars, sanctions, export controls, nationalist boycotts, and populist leaders who prize political theater over economic rationality. In this environment, ignorance of geopolitics isn't just risky, it's reckless.
We have entered an era defined by geoeconomic fragmentation and exponential innovation. Established cooperative frameworks are under pressure, requiring more dialogue, imagination, and entrepreneurship to maintain momentum. Technology deploys at unprecedented speed, with companies playing ever-greater roles in shaping outcomes.
As Edward Fishman, author of Chokepoints: How the Global Economy Became a Weapon, observes, companies are increasingly "instruments of geoeconomic policy." Yet they retain agency through advocacy and compliance efforts, thereby shaping how policy is developed and implemented.
The challenge extends beyond managing discrete crises. Rupert Younger, who founded Oxford University's Centre for Corporate Reputation, notes: "Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, we have lived in a world characterized by remarkably stable geopolitics. Now geopolitical complexity and unpredictability are back, but today's boards, executives, and corporate-affairs teams have little muscle memory for navigating these volatile conditions."
Karthik Ramanna, professor of business and public policy at Oxford, captures the strategic dilemma: "If you don't play the short game, you're not around to play the long game, but if you only play the short game, you'll find yourself outcompeted by your peers in the long term."
Consider Apple. The company built an empire on "Designed by Apple in California. Assembled in China," A subtle geopolitical message suggesting the real innovation remained American while mass assembly leveraged Chinese efficiency. That model is breaking down. The company is expanding into India and Vietnam, enhancing supply chain resilience while courting US allies.
Even pedestrian regulations carry geopolitical weight. When Brussels mandated USB-C ports across consumer electronics, Apple lobbied hard, arguing that "strict regulation mandating just one type of connector stifles innovation." Brussels was unmoved. Apple SVP Greg Joswiak acknowledged reality at a WSJ Tech Live conference: "Governments get to do what they're gonna do. Obviously, we'll have to comply. We have no choice."
He's right. Governments have changed the rules, and companies have no choice but to comply.
Despite mounting evidence, most corporations remain woefully unprepared. Geopolitical advisory units and risk analysts too often occupy ancillary roles peripheral to core decision-making—consultants writing reports that gather dust, government affairs departments focused on tactical lobbying rather than strategic anticipation.
What's needed is fundamental restructuring: a Chief Geopolitics Officer (CGO) at the C-suite level with a seat at the table where decisions get made daily. This isn't about adding another layer of compliance. It's about integrating political intelligence into every major business decision, whether capital allocation, supply chain design, or market-entry strategy.
The CGO role addresses systemic risks that traditional risk management cannot handle. This executive must understand how governments think, how regulators operate, how political crises unfold, how voters respond, and how to navigate all four simultaneously. They require sophisticated intelligence capabilities, scenario-planning expertise, and the authority to shape corporate strategy in real time as geopolitical conditions evolve.
Rising expectations of corporate patriotism add another dimension. Business leaders who spent careers in hyperglobalization must now balance global operations with alignment with home-country geoeconomic agendas. In Europe, "lobbying" carries negative connotations and is replaced by "advocacy" or "active engagement." You're packaging the same activities differently to be culturally effective.
US businesses must prepare for an era of endless tit-for-tat tariffs, restructured supply chains, and elevated interest rates driven by geopolitical instability. This requires four strategic imperatives:
First, integrate geopolitical intelligence into core strategy. This means elevating political risk analysis from a compliance function to a strategic driver. Every significant investment, partnership, and market decision must account for regulatory shifts, sanctions risk, and diplomatic tensions.
Second, build supply chain resilience through geographic diversification. The era of optimizing purely for efficiency is over. Companies must balance cost considerations with geopolitical stability, cultivating supplier relationships across multiple jurisdictions and political alignments.
Third, proactively engage governments and stakeholders. Reactive crisis management no longer suffices. Companies need sustained dialogue with policymakers in Washington, Brussels, Beijing, and other power centers, shaping policy before it shapes them.
Fourth, develop internal capabilities for scenario planning and rapid response. The CGO must lead war-gaming exercises that stress-test business models against various geopolitical shocks, including sanctions escalation, intensification of trade wars, and regional conflicts that disrupt critical supply routes.
This interconnected geopolitical business environment demands specialized expertise.
Caracal Global is a geopolitical business communications firm that lives at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics—home of the world's most savvy participants. The firm specializes in Globalization + American Politics, providing Intelligence + Strategy + Communications services for senior executives, board members, and CEOs responsible for geopolitics, corporate affairs, public affairs, stakeholder engagement, and communications. Led by a Michigan-born, DC-based global business advocate with experience in US and UK national political campaigns, US-China commercial relations, NATO, and media engagement, Caracal Global helps Fortune 1,000 companies navigate today's interconnected business environment where commerce and statecraft have become inseparable.
Geopolitical risk has crossed the threshold from manageable concern to core strategic challenge. The most forward-thinking companies already recognize this reality and are acting accordingly. The question for every other CEO is simple: Will you establish the capabilities to navigate this new landscape before your competitors do, or will you learn these lessons the expensive way?
Alan Turing wrote in 1950: "We can only see a short distance ahead, but we can see plenty there that needs to be done." In today's geopolitical environment, that short distance requires constant vigilance, sophisticated analysis, and strategic agility. The companies that build these capabilities now will define the winners in tomorrow's geoeconomic competition.
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*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
The middle-power dilemma: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's call for the rest of the world to join forces to manage a new era of economic and geopolitical turmoil will resonate with national leaders worldwide. But the path to unity among middle powers is fraught, because interests within such a broad grouping rarely align. Eswar Prasad
The dilemmas for the UK created by a rupturing world: New priorities are needed to succeed amid unreliable and competing great powers. Martin Wolf
A world without nuclear arms control begins this week: New Start treaty, which expires on Thursday, capped the number of missiles and warheads in US and Russian arsenals. FT
US and Iranian officials to meet as Trump’s threats loom: NYT reports President Trump’s Middle East envoy and his son-in-law were expected to meet Iran’s foreign minister in Istanbul on Friday amid tensions between the countries.
Iran's proxy groups are ready for a wider existential war: Unlike 2025 conflict with Israel, 'Axis of Resistance' primed for bigger role. Vali Kaleji
AP: A Kremlin official confirms that US-brokered Russia-Ukraine talks are resuming this week
Germany arrests 5 over violation of Russia sanctions: DW reports five German, Russian, and Ukrainian nationals were arrested in Lübeck for allegedly exporting goods to Russian defense companies.
Russian captain found guilty in North Sea tanker collision: DW reports Vladimir Motin has been convicted for manslaughter after a deadly collision last year off the coast of the UK.
Epstein scandal sends shockwaves through the British establishment: WSJ reports the British prime minister urged ex-US Ambassador Peter Mandelson and former Prince Andrew to cooperate with US authorities.
Police look into Jeffrey Epstein ‘leaks from Peter Mandelson’: The Times reports Lord Mandelson is accused of sending the disgraced financier a private email from an adviser to the then prime minister Gordon Brown.
This is what a proper Brexit looks like: Prosperity and security will be driven by removing unnecessary barriers that hold businesses back. Nick Thomas-Symonds
International companies cut off business in the US because of ICE: WP reports French multinational Capgemini moved to distance itself “immediately” from ICE after criticism from French officials; a Canadian company has also canceled a sale to the agency.
France spirals down EU wealth list towards ‘third-world status’: The country used to be among Europe’s richest economies but it’s being overtaken and critics warn there is no recovery on the horizon. The Times
Rome brings in €2 tourist charge to see the Trevi fountain: Visitors will have to splash out for their Emily in Paris moment at the landmark but will the fees stop it turning into a battlefield at high season? The Times
In Italy, church and state investigate the appearance of a cherub seemingly modeled on Meloni: AP reports the diocese of Rome and the Italian Culture Ministry both launched investigations into the recent renovations at the Basilica of San Lorenzo in Lucina, after photographs of the Meloni-esque cherub were published in Italian newspapers this weekend. Their swift and harsh reactions indicated little tolerance for the profane in a sacred place.
Costa Rican president-elect looks to Bukele for help against crime: AFP reports Costa Rican President-elect Laura Fernandez on Monday welcomed guidance from El Salvador's gang-busting Nayib Bukele in her own country's fight against a surge in drug-related violence.
How a Silicon Valley startup became a crypto lifeline for Venezuela: WSJ reports cryptocurrency fintech Kontigo, which recently raised $20 million from Coinbase and others, is under fire for its role in helping Venezuelans avoid sanctions.
Argentines snap up Lego and Apple computers as Javier Milei opens economy: FT reports Amazon, Shein and Temu gain a foothold after libertarian president cuts import tariffs.
Canada should keep options open on acquiring nuclear weapons, former top soldier says: G+M reports retired general Wayne Eyre says the question of whether to develop a nuclear deterrent is not an immediate concern.
China is the main beneficiary of Trump’s Arctic antics: As the US redeploys its navy and alienates allies, Beijing is filling the void. Isaac Kardon
+ The writer is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of ‘China’s Law of the Sea: The New Rules of Maritime Order.’
China eyes reshaping global order as US influence wanes: As the Trump administration pulls the US back from international institutions, China is stepping up its diplomatic outreach while pursuing leadership roles in selected areas. DW
Xi’s ominous purge of his top general: Xi’s power play bodes badly, whether it is a sign of strength or weakness. FT-Editorial
China’s opacity brings Pekingology back into vogue: What, for example, is behind Xi Jinping’s sweeping military purge? Economist
+ Ross Rant Flashback: When Beijing purges generals, what CEOs should know. Read the post here.
Trump announces long-awaited trade deal with India: Politico reports the US will lower its duty on India from 25 percent to 18 percent as part of the agreement, the president said in a social media post.
Trump announces initial trade deal with India: NYT reports the agreement was short on details, but President Trump said India had promised to stop buying Russian oil and would buy more US products for a reduction on tariffs.
Trump says US and India reached trade deal, will lower tariffs immediately: CNBC reports Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed to “stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela,” Trump said on Truth Social.
+ Ross Rant Flashback: When Europe and India trade: What the world's largest trade pact means for US business. Read the post here.
Trump administration to create $12 billion rare earth stockpile to counter China: WSJ reports president’s move comes after Beijing used its dominance over the minerals supply chain to squeeze US industries.
US to launch $12bn critical minerals stockpile to counter China’s dominance: FT reports US Export-Import Bank will provide $10bn in debt financing for effort named Project Vault.
America is alienating what could become a superpower: If Europe and Asian democracies coordinate, they can reshape the global balance. Max Boot
The stablecoin war: Wall Street vs crypto over the future of money: Banks say rules governing the digital currency are a risk to financial stability. Are they just trying to stamp out competition? FT
Capitalism has already ended and we don’t even know it, Yanis Varoufakis warns: Speaking to Euronews after his panel at Web Summit Qatar, the former Greek finance minister said the world could be heading toward another crisis like 2008, driven by the rise of stablecoins and powerful tech platforms. Euronews
*** US Politics + Elections ***
How Mike Johnson is scrambling to keep the shutdown short: Politico reports conservatives want the SAVE Act, a partisan elections bill, added to the $1.2 trillion spending package.
House GOP searches for votes to end shutdown with razor-thin majority: WP reports House Democrats have indicated privately that they do not plan to support the plan, leaving Republicans to go it alone.
CNN: Justice Department expected to ramp up efforts to deliver on Trump’s ‘weaponization’ priorities
Trump wants to ‘nationalize the voting,’ seeking to grab states’ power: WP reports Trump, who continues to falsely claim that he won the 2020 election, has baselessly alleged widespread fraud.
Trump, in an escalation, calls for Republicans to ‘nationalize’ elections: NYT reports the comments, made on a conservative podcast, follow a string of moves from his administration to try to exert more control over American elections.
Trump had unusual call with FBI agents after election center search: NYT reports Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, brokered the call and President Trump directly questioned frontline agents on the inquiry, The Times has learned.
CBS: Georgia's Fulton County to file motion after FBI seizes 2020 election ballots
Classified whistleblower complaint about Tulsi Gabbard stalls within her agency: Congress hasn’t seen the complaint, which was filed eight months ago with the US intelligence community’s watchdog office. WSJ
‘It’s been brutal’: Twin Cities economy suffers under ICE crackdown: NYT reports immigration raids have scared off customers and workers, a pattern repeated in other cities where federal officials have arrived in force.
Wanted: CEOs with backbone: The killing of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis is a moment for leaders to challenge America’s direction. Rana Foroohar
ICE agents hate being filmed: FT reports Trump administration accused of trampling First Amendment by targeting Americans recording immigration raids.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said today that the January jobs report will be delayed due to the shutdown, per Bloomberg.
‘Hot mess’: Former Trump cyber leader slams DHS leadership void: Politico reports Bridget Bean, the former acting director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, said in an exclusive interview that without permanent leadership, agencies under DHS are “not working.”
Trump says not 'ripping' down Kennedy Center -- much: AFP reports Trump said Monday he would not demolish the Kennedy Center but hinted at major changes, a day after announcing he is closing the famed Washington arts venue for two years for renovations.
This famed architect says Trump’s plan for Kennedy Center is ‘absurd’: FC reports that Steven Holl, architect of the ‘much loved’ national cultural center’s recent expansion, has thoughts on its proposed 2-year closure.
‘Crisis’: The fallout from Trump’s surprise plan to close Kennedy Center: WP reports the president’s announcement shocked artists and staff. A letter obtained by The Washington Post brought the National Symphony Orchestra’s future into focus.
How the Supreme Court secretly made itself even more secretive: Amid calls to increase transparency and revelations about the court’s inner workings, the chief justice imposed nondisclosure agreements on clerks and employees. NYT
Trump’s AI push exposes a divide in the MAGA movement CNN
The real reason Silicon Valley won’t stand up to Trump Aaron Zamost
+ Zamost is a tech communications consultant and former head of communications, policy and people at Square.
The Hill: Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene: MAGA ‘was all a lie’
Tina Smith endorses Peggy Flanagan over Angie Craig in Minnesota Senate race: Politico reports the retiring senator is choosing a fellow progressive and lieutenant governor as her successor over moderate Rep. Angie Craig.
Nancy Mace is not okay: “Something’s broken. The motherboard’s fried. We’re short-circuiting somewhere.” Jake Lahut
AFP: Epstein files: AI photos circulate of Zohran Mamdani’s mother at party
Clintons capitulate on House Epstein inquiry, agreeing to testify: NYT reports former President Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton, the ex-secretary of state, agreed to depositions they had long resisted days before the House was to vote to hold them in contempt.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
SpaceX has acquired xAI, in a deal that encompasses the billionaire’s increasingly costly ambitions to dominate artificial intelligence and space exploration.
Elon Musk merges SpaceX with his AI start-up xAI: The deal further intermingles Musk’s companies and creates the most valuable private company on earth. NYT
SpaceX buys xAI to unite crucial parts of Musk’s empire: Rocket company and AI model builder to combine as billionaire envisions data centres in space. FT
SpaceX is requesting permission to launch as many as 1 million satellites into the Earth’s orbit in order to pull off Elon Musk’s latest grand vision of putting data centers in space to do complex computing for artificial intelligence.
Musk merges xAI into SpaceX in bid to build space data centers: AFP reports Elon Musk's SpaceX has taken over his artificial intelligence company xAI in a merger aimed at deploying space-based data centers, a statement said on Monday.
OpenAI accused Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company of “systematic and intentional destruction” of evidence in xAI’s lawsuit accusing the ChatGPT maker of trying to thwart competition in emerging markets.
A social network for AI bots only. No humans allowed. NYT reports a new website called Moltbook has become the talk of Silicon Valley and a Rorschach test for belief in the state of artificial intelligence.
A social network for AI agents is full of introspection—and threats: How worried should you be about Moltbook? Economist
The church of molt is not for humans: The rise of Crustafarianism has confounded many tech users, but what if AI agents are merely mimicking human behavior? Jessica Karl
SoftBank, Fanuc turn to partners as robotics and AI merge: Nikkei reports Japan's robotics industry struggles to catch up to physical AI technology.
Hyundai Motor to deploy AI robots at US plants as Trump tariffs hit profit: Nikkei reports humanoids by Boston Dynamics can run 24 hours a day.
Palantir shares jump 7% on rapid revenue growth: FT reports data intelligence group predicts 61% boost in sales this year.
Oracle plans to raise $45 billion to $50 billion this year through a combination of debt and equity sales to build additional cloud infrastructure capacity, reflecting the scale of financing needed to feed AI’s growth.
AI is not the only threat menacing Big Tech: Are Meta and Google ads really recession-proof? Economist
Waymo raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation, a funding round that reflects its rapid ascent as a robotaxi pioneer.
EU companies adopt BYD, Yutong buses despite China security fears: Nikkei reports German, Belgian, Austrian transport groups cite low price, superior electric tech.
Indonesian coffee chains brew stronger overseas ambitions: Slow domestic growth and robust regional demand drive expansion strategies. Nikkei
McDonald's is offering McNugget Caviar kits.
Eddie Bauer is closing stores as list of struggling mall retailers grows in 2026: FC reports the company that operates the outdoor recreation brand’s US stores is expected to seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, a source confirmed.
The wild markets behind Polymarket’s ‘truth machine’: Shayne Coplan has built the crypto-based betting platform into a $9 billion company; Justice Department probe gets shelved. WSJ
*** Culture ***
The real reasons Sundance’s legendary film fest is done with Park City: Next year’s move to Boulder was foreshadowed by red flags and rising costs. WP
The GRAMMYs: The only show where I have to Shazam every single performance just to know what’s going on.
*** Sport ***
Between the sheets at the college Excel championships: One of the most unusual — and fun — events in college sports is a high-stakes spreadsheeting competition in Las Vegas. WP
The half-billion dollar offseason that rebuilt the Patriots winning machine: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are long gone. But a new coach, a rising star at quarterback and an enormous offseason investment in the franchise has New England back in the Super Bowl. WSJ
Is football doomed? Chuck Klosterman thinks so. In his new book, the writer goes deep on a sport that dominates American cultural life — but possibly not for long. NYT
Do they call it a 'Quarterback with Cheese' over there? NFL's first game in France will be Browns-Saints in Paris on October 25.
It’s way too early to discuss Carlos Alcaraz as an all-time tennis great. Let’s do it anyway. The 22-year-old from Spain remains on a historic pace after winning his first Australian Open—and seventh major overall. Jason Gay
United by soccer, not mountain sports: Italians offer tepid enthusiasm for the Winter Olympics Eric Reguly
FIFA president Infantino defends giving peace prize to Trump: AFP reports FIFA chief Gianni Infantino defended his controversial decision to award a peace prize to United States president Donald Trump as he dismissed calls for a World Cup boycott.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Global Daily | February 2
Caracal Global Daily
Caracal Global Daily is a human-curated global intelligence briefing that connects geopolitical developments, economic trends, and strategic business insights.
February 2, 2026
Detroit, MI
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
In an age of superpowers, geography is still destiny: The world is a battleground again. The post–Cold War moment of great-power peace and borderless globalization has ended. Fracture, rivalry, and disorder are defining themes of our age. Hal Brands
US attack would plunge region into war, warns Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei: The Times reports the 86-year-old leader said Tehran would ‘deliver a strong punch to anyone who attacks and harasses it’ after Trump sent a navy armada to the region.
Donald Trump says Iran negotiating ‘seriously’ on nuclear weapons: FT reports US president demands Tehran accept ‘no nuclear weapons’ as regional allies try to de-escalate tensions.
The violence in Iran could lead to civil war: As America amasses an armada, the regime’s response to recent protests is radicalising Iranians. Economist
Israel to end Doctors Without Borders work in Gaza: Le Monde reports Israel said Sunday it would end the work of Doctors Without Borders in Gaza after it failed to provide a list of its Palestinian staff.
Why is taking the rest of the Donetsk region so important to Putin? Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the question “the one remaining item” in Abu Dhabi peace talks. Russia disputed that. NYT
+ SpaceX has stopped the “unauthorised use” of its satellite network, Starlink, by Russia’s armed forces.
Europe’s future depends on whether it can embrace hard power, says Germany’s Merz: The chancellor also joined other European leaders in condemning US President Donald Trump’s dismissal of NATO sacrifices in Afghanistan. Politico
Frederik X, a monarch embraced by Greenlanders: Deeply attached to Greenland – where he once undertook a four-month expedition under extreme conditions – the king of Denmark is set to visit the island this month. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has not abandoned his ambition to claim it as American territory. Le Monde
Why the US needs Diego Garcia: Trump can block the UK deal to hand the Chagos Islands to a friend of China. WSJ-Editorial
The new bipolar world of AI: Only the US and China are ‘sovereign’ in that they can produce and maintain control of frontier systems. Tom Tugendhat + Christopher Ahlberg
China’s genius plan to win the AI race is already paying off: A network of ultra-competitive high-school talent streams has been turning out the leading lights of science and tech. FT
Xi Jinping calls for China’s renminbi to attain global reserve currency status: FT reports latest commentary details ambitions for ‘powerful currency’ to play a greater role in trade and forex.
China has launched a huge free-trade experiment: Will reforms on a big southern island kick-start changes elsewhere? Economist
China’s Middle East moment is stalling out: Beijing’s rise as a regional power broker at the US’s expense has lost momentum amid its reluctance to take on a sustained political or security role. Bloomberg
‘Spy Sheikh’ bought secret stake in Trump company: $500 million investment for 49% of World Liberty came months before UAE won access to tightly guarded American AI chips. WSJ
Abu Dhabi royal bought big stake in Trump family crypto venture: FT reports investors backed by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan put half a billion dollars into World Liberty Financial.
The secret Egyptian air base behind Sudan’s drone war: The covert base offers new evidence of how the Sudanese conflict is morphing into a theater for high-tech warfare, driven by foreign interests. NYT
Over 300 people thought missing in Mediterranean as shipwrecks continue: Le Monde reports in mid-January, eight vessels that had departed Tunisia were reported in distress. As many as 380 people were on board these boats, according to one radio station. All are now considered missing.
Carney’s Davos speech has a big hole in it Adrian Wooldridge
How Canada should operate in a TACO world Jaime Watt
Has America hit “peak tariff”? Uncle Sam’s take may go downhill from here. Economist
Bitcoin price slides to lowest level since 2025 tariff shock: FT reports drop comes after gold and other precious metals sold off sharply.
The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline: America’s population wasn’t expected to start falling until 2081. Trump’s immigration crackdown means it could happen as soon as this year. Bloomberg
*** US Politics + Elections ***
House’s Bid to End Partial Shutdown Gets Tougher: WSJ reports Democrats pushing for immigration-enforcement changes say they won’t help GOP pass funding measures.
House speaker ‘confident’ partial shutdown will end by Tuesday: WP reports Speaker Mike Johnson says he’s prepared to pass funding measures, already approved by the Senate, with the sole support of House Republicans.
Judge denies effort to bring temporary halt to ICE operation in Minnesota: MST reports the order comes after the matter was argued in federal court.
Judge ordered 5-year-old released, but data shows ICE has been detaining more kids: WP reports that as family detentions spike, the Trump administration is increasingly ensnaring the youngest and most vulnerable, lawyers and advocates say.
Target’s new CEO faces hometown crisis as he begins turnaround effort: Michael Fiddelke takes the top job at the struggling retailer amid continued unrest in the Twin Cities. A new boss also steps in at Walmart, where things are quieter. NYT
Americans have drawn a red line in Minnesota: The Trump administration’s partial retreat will not mend the damage to trust and lives. FT-Editorial
Canadian company cancels sale of Virginia warehouse to ICE: NYT reports Jim Pattison Developments said the sale of an industrial building, which was planned to become an Immigration and Customs Enforcement processing facility, would not go forward.
WSJ: President’s lawsuit against IRS puts him on both sides of the same case
WP: Trump wants to build a 250-foot-tall arch, dwarfing the Lincoln Memorial
WSJ: Trump says Kennedy Center will close for two years for renovations
Trump plans to close Kennedy Center for about two years in July for construction: WP reports his proposal comes amid a series of cancellations and internal upheaval since he took over the storied institution nearly a year ago.
The Hill: Trump questions if GOP can overcome voters’ ‘psychological’ midterms hurdle
Toronto Star: Texas stunner: Democrat Taylor Rehmet flips Republican state Senate district Trump won by 17 points
Texas election upset is a ‘wake-up call’ for future elections, Republican says: WSJ reports a state-level Democratic win in a region that had voted decisively for President Trump threatens to diminish Republicans’ hopes for the midterm elections.
Democratic upset in deep red Texas district rattles Republicans: NYT reports a Democrat won a state legislative special election in a district that President Trump carried by 17 percentage points, unnerving Republicans in Texas and beyond.
A Texas election jolt to the GOP: Stephen Miller’s mass deportation strategy is backfiring at the polls. WSJ-Editorial
Lame duck no more? Trump stockpiles hundreds of millions ahead of midterms. Politico reports that all together, a web of campaign accounts, some of which he controls directly and others under the care of close allies, within the president’s orbit have $375 million in their coffers.
RNC enters 2026 with nearly $100 million edge on DNC: NYT reports Democrats have struggled to raise money, as is often the case for the party out of power, but the depth of their financial hole against the Republican National Committee is noteworthy.
NH-SEN: Trump endorsed former Sen. John E. Sununu (R-NH) over former Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) in the Republican primary for the New Hampshire US Senate seat.
Michigan’s 3-car pileup of a primary has Senate Democrats worried: The race is a crucial test for what the next generation of Democrats will look like — and whether they can prevail in a must-win race for their Senate chances. Politico
Democrats to shake up primary map, as 12 states vie to be among the first: The party’s national committee plans to select up to five states to hold the first nominating contests for its 2028 presidential nominee. WP
The blue state population bust: WSJ-Editoral writes Democratic-run states could lose at least 10 House seats after 2030 based on migration trends.
For the first time in 50 years, college grads are losing their edge: WP reports Historically, US workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher have enjoyed better employment outcomes. That’s starting to shift, labor data shows.
Is the personal political? Five takeaways from Gavin Newsom’s new book: His introspective memoir tries to challenge the conventional wisdom about his upbringing, explores his marriages, and airs a little dirty laundry — but says relatively little about politics. NYT
‘Melania’ promises to take us behind the scenes. There’s nothing to see. Monica Hesse reports that the new documentary about the enigmatic first lady mostly celebrates her zealous dedication to her external presentation.
‘Melania’ arrives with strong box office showing for a documentary: NYT reports Amazon backed up the Brink’s trucks for the vanity film, resulting in weekend ticket sales of about $7 million in North America, enough for third place.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
7 reasons teens say no to AI: Some young people only turn to artificial-intelligence chatbots as a last resort, citing concerns about relationships, creativity, the environment, and more. Julie Jargon
How big a threat is AI to entry-level jobs? And what should companies do in response? Economist
An AI clone and a publicly traded company: The irresistible rise of TikToker Khaby Lame: The Senegalese-Italian influencer has sold his company for nearly $1 billion in a deal that includes the creation of a digital twin powered by artificial intelligence. Le Monde
Inside Moltbook: The social network where AI agents talk to each other: An online experiment has Elon Musk believing that we are reaching the ‘singularity’. Is that really true? FT
The AI boom is coming for Apple’s profit margins: WSJ reports parts for iPhones will cost more, owing to surging demand from AI companies.
On LinkedIn, everyone’s an AI detective now: As AI-generated writing spreads across the platform, users are scrutinizing em dashes, emojis, and repetitive phrasing to call out inauthenticity. Bloomberg
Ford held talks with China’s Xiaomi over EV partnership: FT reports deal would open US market to Chinese carmakers.
+ @mtruby: Our statement: “This story is completely false. There is no truth to it.”
Disney board is close to picking parks chief D’Amaro as next CEO: Bloomberg reports the board of Walt Disney Co. is aligning on promoting theme-park division chairman Josh D’Amaro to the role of chief executive officer and will vote on naming a new leader next week, according to people familiar with the matter.
Super Bowl ad slots hit record prices as brands return to TV marketing: FT reports broadcaster NBC says some brands are paying more than $10mn for a 30-second slot.
*** Culture ***
The truth about what men and women really desire: Leonardo DiCaprio with his younger girlfriend, Lauren Sánchez Bezos with her rich man. Is this the way of human desire? No, Paul Eastwick, a researcher into love, tells Helen Rumbelow. The Times
AFP: Venice kicks off 15 days of Carnival festivities
*** Sport ***
WSJ: Carlos Alcaraz Takes Down Novak Djokovic to Win the Australian Open
G+M: Carlos Alcaraz becomes youngest man to complete a career Grand Slam
CBS: Trump announces IndyCar race will come to DC streets for America's 250th
Trump, IndyCar plan Freedom 250 race around National Mall, but it’s going to be tough lift: Athletic reports the race, officially named the Freedom 250 Grand Prix of Washington, DC, is scheduled for Aug. 23 and will be part of the America 250 celebrations later this year to mark the 250th anniversary of the founding of the US on July 4, 1776. There has never been a professional motorsports race at the National Mall.
+ It’s one thing to announce a street race, but it’s another thing to pull it off. Jeff Gluck, senior motorsports writer for The Athletic, said, “This would be one of the most ambitious announcements in American motorsports history, given the short timeframe, but perhaps the executive order will cut through the typical red tape.”
WP: LeBron James makes record 22nd All-Star Game — this time as a reserve
WP: ESPN closes deal for NFL Network following regulatory approval
Personal training for 11-year-olds? It’s happening. NYT reports that as youth sports become increasingly competitive, more preteen athletes are working with private coaches to level up.
Pope says Winter Olympics 'rekindle hope' for world peace: AFP reports Pope Leo XIV said Sunday that the Winter Olympics -- starting in less than a week's time in northern Italy -- were an opportunity to "rekindle hope for a world at peace."
Sports betting is blurring the lines between gaming, gambling, and investing: Legalization unleashed explosive growth in US sports betting. In Everybody Loses, Danny Funt argues that it’s made watching (and playing) worse. Bloomberg
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal