Caracal Global Daily
February 18, 2026
Detroit, MI
Here's what a Chief Geopolitical Officer should be monitoring today.
Hiatus alert: Caracal Global Daily will be off next week. Marc will attend and curate Brigadoon @ Sundance Mountain Resort 2026. Back Monday, March 2.
*** Today's Focus ***
Item 1: Iran and the US agree on "guiding principles" for a nuclear deal in Geneva
Why this matters: For the first time in years, the two sides are operating from a shared framework rather than trading threats. That's not a deal—but it's the architecture one gets built on. Companies with Middle East exposure, energy-sector players, and defense contractors should update their scenario planning: a near-term military confrontation has become significantly less likely, even as significant gaps remain.
Item 2: Ukraine-Russia peace talks begin in Geneva under heavy US pressure—Moscow isn't budging
Why this matters: Russia is absorbing casualties and economic pressure, yet its negotiating team is led by a Kremlin aide who has publicly questioned Ukraine's sovereignty. That tells you everything about Moscow's real position. Companies with European operations should not interpret "talks are happening" as stability—Russia's maximalist demands and continued strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure signal this drags on. Watch European defense spending acceleration as the real hedge.
Item 3: Canada formally pivots from the US—on defense, on autos, on trade partners
Why this matters: This isn't symbolic. PM Carney has launched a multi-billion-dollar defense industrial strategy explicitly designed to reduce US dependency, is courting Chinese EV investment, and his government is threatening Detroit automakers who accepted Canadian subsidies but cut Canadian jobs. For US manufacturers with cross-border supply chains and for any company watching the North American trade architecture, the long-held stability of the US-Canada relationship is no longer assured. This is a structural shift, not a negotiating tactic.
*** Ross Rant ***
AOC's Munich stumble reveals a geopolitical knowledge gap in America's leaders
When Democrat New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) fumbles over her words, pauses blankly at the Munich Security Conference—one of the world's premier foreign-policy events—and won't commit the United States to defending Taiwan if China ever invades, the stumble reveals a geopolitical knowledge gap among America's leaders. Jim Geraghty in the Washington Post called the moment "strategic incomprehensibility."
"Um, you know, I think that this is such a, you know, I think that this is, this is of course a very longstanding policy of the United States," Ocasio-Cortez said as she struggled to answer the question from moderator Francine Lacqua of Bloomberg TV. "What we are hoping for is that we want to make sure that we never get to that point," she added.
Yikes.
AOC, long known for her communications, was instantly hurt by this stumble, and her presidential aspirations will suffer. Her answer to Lacqua revealed that it takes more than being a progressive princess to become the leader of the free world.
Executives in corner offices in Chicago, Houston, and Atlanta shouldn't be gleeful in AOC's stumble. They should draw a very different lesson from this uncomfortable moment: if one of America's most prominent politicians couldn't answer the Taiwan question clearly, what does that say about how prepared your company is for the scenario itself?
Munich was revealing precisely because it was supposed to be a showcase. AOC arrived as the brightest star of the American progressive movement, a potential 2028 presidential candidate testing her foreign policy credentials before an audience of world leaders. Instead, she struggled to articulate a coherent position on the most consequential geopolitical flashpoint of our era. Even sympathetic voices in her own party conceded the stumbles. What was a surefire presidential soft launch venue turned into a hard landing, aka a crash.
But here is the harder truth: most corporate leadership teams would fare no better if pressed on the same question in a board meeting.
The Taiwan Strait is not an abstraction.
Approximately $3 trillion in global trade passes through those waters annually. Taiwan produces the majority of the world's most advanced semiconductors. A Chinese military action against Taiwan, whether a blockade, a missile campaign, or an amphibious assault, would immediately disrupt supply chains, freeze financial markets, trigger emergency sanctions regimes, and force every multinational corporation with Asia-Pacific exposure to make decisions for which most have no playbook. The question AOC couldn't answer is one your risk committee should be rehearsing quarterly.
The conference was ostensibly about security, but the underlying current was geopolitical fragmentation at scale. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio worked to reassure jittery European allies about America's commitment to NATO. At the same time, AOC offered a class-based internationalist framework that left even friendly observers uncertain about its policy implications. The result was a conference that produced more anxiety than clarity, a signal executives should internalize.
We are operating in a world where American foreign policy is being challenged by both foes and allies, where the traditional rules-based order is under strain from multiple directions simultaneously, and where the next administration, regardless of party, will inherit a geopolitical landscape fundamentally different from that of a decade ago. The business environment your company navigated in 2019 is not returning.
What does this mean operationally?
It means the persistent volatility your procurement teams are managing around tariffs is not a negotiating tactic to be waited out. It is structural. Tit-for-tat trade measures between the United States and its major economic rivals have become a durable feature of the global commercial landscape rather than an anomaly. Supply chain strategies built around cost optimization in a stable geopolitical environment need to be rebuilt around resilience in an unstable one. Capital expenditure decisions that once turned primarily on interest rates now must account for jurisdictional risk, sanctions exposure, and the political durability of bilateral relationships.
The boardrooms that will navigate this era successfully are those that treat government relations and geopolitical intelligence not as communications overhead but as operational infrastructure. Companies need to know which legislators are driving trade policy, which regulatory bodies the Trump administration is weaponizing, and which alliances are under stress before those dynamics produce a crisis that forces a reactive response.
AOC's Munich moment was a preview of the debates that will define the next presidential cycle, and by extension, the policy environment your business will operate within through the end of the decade. Taiwan, NATO burden-sharing, sanctions architecture, export controls, and industrial policy are all live questions with direct revenue implications for multinational corporations.
Caracal Global serves as a fractional Chief Geopolitical Officer for Fortune 1,000 companies and private equity portfolio companies, providing intelligence, strategy, and communications at the intersection of globalization and American politics. Michigan-born and DC-based, Caracal's leadership brings experience in US-China commercial relations, NATO affairs, and national political campaigns on both sides of the Atlantic.
The Taiwan question isn't going away.
The executives who answer it strategically, before the crisis forces the issue, will be the ones still standing when it does.
-Marc
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
Iran offers nuclear concessions as US talks make progress: WSJ reports Tehran floated enrichment pauses and business deals to encourage a nuclear deal amid military threats. Both sides now acknowledge a "set of guiding principles"—the first structural framework since talks collapsed. This reduces near-term conflict risk, but Tehran's foreign minister cautioned it "will take time to narrow" the gap, and VP Vance noted Iran hasn't acknowledged all of Trump's red lines.
+ For energy traders and companies with Gulf operations: adjust conflict risk premium downward for Q1, but don't price out volatility. The deal isn't done.
Russia presses demands, and faces pressure, as Ukraine talks move to Geneva: WP reports high casualties and economic trouble signal time may no longer be on Russia's side—but Moscow isn't backing off political and territorial demands.
Ukraine made its fastest territorial gains since 2023 in the past five days, while disrupted Starlink access is creating Russian command-and-control problems. And yet: Russia's negotiating team is led by a Kremlin aide who has questioned Ukraine's sovereignty, and Moscow carried out fresh strikes on Odesa's power grid the night before talks. This is not a party that believes it's losing.
+ For European-exposed companies: don't reduce risk posture based on Geneva optics alone.
Zelensky says it's unfair Trump is pressing him more than Putin: The Times reports Ukraine's president says his people would never forgive a deal surrendering the Donbas. The political pressure on Kyiv from Washington is real and escalating. Zelensky is being asked to make concessions that Putin isn't being asked to make. That asymmetry tells you something about how Trump's team has calibrated leverage.
+ Companies planning European investment or infrastructure exposure should model a scenario where a deal is reached on unfavorable terms for Ukraine—and what that means for European security architecture afterward.
NATO defense spending gap widens: France lagging, UK "going faster": Germany—which greenlit a debt-fueled military expansion—is calling out France for falling behind its NATO commitments. British PM Starmer says the UK must also accelerate its path toward 3% of GDP for defense. Both are hampered by weak economies.
+ The headline number at Munich was 5% of GDP pledged last June. The reality is a patchwork of capability gaps, political constraints, and economic headwinds. For defense contractors and European government affairs teams: Germany is the spender. France is the laggard. Identify who's buying.
Germany asks Ukraine to train its soldiers in drone warfare: The Times reports Ukrainian troops will instruct Bundeswehr counterparts in battlefield technologies under a new defense deal. Germany is acquiring institutional knowledge from the only force that has actually fought peer adversaries with modern drone systems at scale.
+ This is smart—and signals Berlin is preparing for a long-term strategic posture independent of US cover. Defense technology companies should be in this conversation.
Russia dirty tricks 'pave the way for attack on Baltics': The Times reports Russia and Belarus are promoting a fringe historical theory that could be used to justify a future invasion of Lithuania.
+ Information operations precede kinetic operations. This pattern is consistent with how Russia prepared narratives in the lead-up to the 2014 and 2022 elections. Baltic exposure deserves a watch.
Finland's President Stubb has a plan for the liberal world order: A shared golf relationship with Trump has given Stubb unusual access. His calm realism on Arctic security and transatlantic tension is worth understanding. Watch his interview with David Rennie, The Economist’s geopolitics editor, at the Munich Security Conference to explain his approach to diplomacy, disagreement, and the changing world order. Economist
Giorgia Meloni's mission: Playing bridge between Trump and Europe: WSJ reports Italy's leader is trying to prevent the transatlantic rift from becoming a permanent divorce—even as European voters sour on the alliance.
+ Meloni is the most strategically positioned European leader right now—credible to both Washington and Brussels. Companies managing government relations across the Atlantic should watch her as a signal of where the middle ground lies.
Poland extends war reparations campaign to Russia: FT reports Warsaw has already sought €1.3tn from Germany and is now adding Russia to its ledger.
Germany's population shrinking faster than expected: The Ifo Institute revised Germany's population down from 85m to 83m, with a 12% decline expected in the working-age population over 25 years.
+ Labor market and pension pressure ahead—and a structural argument for AI-driven productivity investment.
Japan plans $36 billion in US investments under Trump administration deal: WSJ reports the first tranche of Japan's $550 billion commitment includes a $33 billion gas plant in Ohio, a deepwater crude export facility in the Gulf, and a synthetic diamond manufacturing facility.
+ This is what a successful Trump trade negotiation looks like: visible, investable commitments that generate domestic jobs. For the US energy infrastructure and critical minerals sectors, Japanese capital is becoming a significant new variable.
US and Taiwan ink trade pact to slash tariffs and bolster semiconductor supply chains: Semafor reports the agreement is a "needed boost" to US-Taiwan ties as China hawks worry the Trump administration is softening its commitments to Taipei.
+ The semiconductor supply chain just got a degree of formal backing it didn't have yesterday. For tech companies managing Taiwan-exposed supply chains: this reduces—but does not eliminate—the vulnerability. China's reaction will be the watch item.
US to deploy more cutting-edge missile systems to the Philippines: The Straits Times reports both Washington and Manila committed to increasing US deployments of "cutting-edge missile and unmanned systems."
+ The South China Sea deterrence architecture is being reinforced in real time. This accelerates the de-risking calculus for companies with China-dependent manufacturing.
US faces 'decade-long' road to loosening China's grip on rare earths: Nikkei reports refining remains the critical hurdle even as Washington deploys billions and builds Asian partnerships.
+ The upstream mining problem is solvable. The downstream refining bottleneck is not in the near term. Supply chain resilience planning that doesn't account for this gap is incomplete.
Beijing offers 53 African countries tariff-free access: Semafor reports that China will scrap tariffs for 53 African countries from May 1, moving in the opposite direction from US trade policy.
+ China is systematically locking in African trade relationships while the US raises barriers. For companies operating in or sourcing from Africa, the competitive landscape for Chinese players just improved. Eswatini—which recognizes Taiwan—is the only country excluded.
Macron's India charm offensive: $30 billion Rafale deal on the table: AFP reports Macron is in Mumbai to close a 114-jet Rafale sale and deepen defense, tech, and trade ties with Delhi.
+ France is executing a sophisticated pivot—using defense hardware to pull India closer to Europe, away from its historic Russian supplier relationship, and offering an alternative to US F-35 dependency. India is buying leverage, not just jets.
India warns over AI's threat to its youth workforce: Semafor reports India's chief economic advisor warned the country must create 8 million jobs a year to sustain expansion, but coding and call-center jobs (its core exports) are highly AI-vulnerable.
+ Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei acknowledged the brief window of human-AI productivity partnership directly at the New Delhi summit.
+ For companies with Indian technology outsourcing relationships: start modeling the transition now.
Canada is embracing Asia to preserve its auto heartland: Bloomberg reports that Canada is courting Chinese EV investment and restructuring trade policy as Detroit automakers cut Canadian production.
+ This is a pivotal signal for Detroit. Canada is doing what was unthinkable 15 months ago: inviting BYD and Chery into its auto industry. GM, Ford, and Stellantis are rapidly losing leverage in Ottawa.
+ The US-Canada auto supply chain that has existed since the 1960s is being renegotiated in real time—not at a negotiating table, but through investment decisions.
+ Industry Minister Joly has threatened to go after GM and Stellantis for money, accusing them of breaking past subsidy commitments after cutting Ontario jobs.
A data leak at the Abu Dhabi Finance Summit exposes politicians and business leaders: FT reports that personal documents, including the passports of hundreds of ADFW attendees, were found online.
+ Elite information security remains a persistent vulnerability. Board vetting and conference security protocols need to be reviewed.
Peru ousts its eighth president in ten years: WSJ, NYT, FT all report Congress removed interim President José Jerí—four months into his tenure—for failing to disclose meetings with a Chinese businessman.
+ The China connection is the detail that matters. Peru's political fragility is well established; what's new is that the disclosure of foreign national relationships is now a trigger for impeachment. For companies operating in Latin America, Chinese business relationships are increasingly politically toxic, not just commercially complex.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Anthropic vs. the Pentagon—and it's getting ugly: Axios reports Defense Secretary Hegseth is "close" to designating Anthropic a "supply chain risk"—the same classification used for foreign adversaries—over its refusal to allow Claude to be used for mass surveillance or autonomous weapons without human oversight.
+ This is the most significant corporate-government AI standoff in US history. Anthropic's Claude is currently the only AI model in classified military systems.
+ The Pentagon's position is that Anthropic's ethical guardrails are "unacceptable." Anthropic's position is that it won't allow its technology to fire weapons without human involvement or surveil Americans en masse.
+ Every company using AI in government contracts needs to understand: this fight is going to define the terms of the entire industry's relationship with the defense sector. Palantir—which sits in the middle as a contractor—is immediately exposed.
+ WP editorial on AI and automation ran the same day. The convergence of Pentagon pressure and public debate about AI's reach is not coincidental.
AOC stumbles on Taiwan at Munich—a warning signal for the 2028 left: NYT Magazine's Ross Barkan frames the fumble clearly: she couldn't answer a yes-or-no question on US defense of Taiwan. For a potential 2028 contender, this is a gap that matters.
+ Foreign policy credibility is a real prerequisite for the presidency. AOC performed well in Munich on most fronts—but the Taiwan moment reveals the left hasn't fully worked through its China-security framework. Watch how she course-corrects. That correction will define her viability.
Jesse Jackson dies at 84: WP, NYT, WSJ, Politico all mark the passing of the civil rights leader and two-time presidential candidate.
+ Jackson's 1984 campaign created the template for coalition-based insurgent Democratic candidacies—every left-of-center primary challenge since has operated in his shadow. His death closes a chapter of Democratic Party history that directly shaped the political infrastructure AOC, Bernie Sanders, and others have inherited.
DHS spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin exits Trump administration: Politico notes the departure comes as public opinion has shifted on the administration's immigration policies.
+ Communication staff turnover at DHS is a signal of internal tension around the policy's political sustainability. Watch for messaging recalibration on immigration ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Britain's monarchy can't escape the Epstein shadow: WSJ, The Times, and WP all advance the story as new email evidence deepens questions about Prince Andrew's ongoing relationship with Epstein after the "cut ties" date.
+ The Epstein network continues to generate political and reputational exposure for global elites. Board vetting standards should account for this.
+ Hillary Clinton has called for Andrew to testify before Congress; the Clintons are due to give their own testimony next week.
New Mexico launches investigation into Epstein's Zorro Ranch: The Times reports legislators are examining claims about deaths at the property. This is no longer just a financial or trafficking story.
Warren Buffett slashes Amazon stake by 75%, builds position in NYT Co.
+ The Amazon reduction is the headline; the New York Times investment is the signal.
+ Buffett is betting on legacy media brand value at a moment when trust in information is becoming a strategic asset.
Obama oral history: he didn't see Trump coming: NYT publishes a new oral history documenting how Obama's team missed the country's shifting mood.
+ His advisers describe Trump as a "con man" and "clown"—language that reveals how badly the Democratic establishment misread the 2016 environment.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
Anthropic/Pentagon standoff: The AI governance fault line breaks open. The core issue: Anthropic refuses to allow Claude to be used for autonomous weapons or mass surveillance of Americans. The Pentagon, under Hegseth, considers those terms "unacceptable."
+ Every AI company with government contracts needs to assess where its own terms of service create similar exposure. This isn't just Anthropic's problem.
Meta deepens Nvidia ties with pact for 'millions' of chips: FT, Bloomberg reports Meta has committed to Nvidia's Grace CPUs and Blackwell/Vera Rubin AI accelerators in a multiyear deal.
+ Nvidia continues to consolidate its position as the infrastructure layer of the AI economy. The companies developing competing hardware—Meta included—are also the largest buyers of Nvidia's products. That dependency is structural, not temporary.
Apple is developing a trio of AI wearables: Smart glasses, camera AirPods, and a pendant. The wearable AI form factor race is accelerating.
+ Apple's three-track strategy positions it across every price point and use case in ambient computing.
Google and CTC Global launch an AI-driven grid optimization product that can increase grid capacity by up to 120% through existing power lines—without adding new generation.
+ For energy infrastructure investors: this is the kind of technology that changes the economics of the AI power buildout.
Ford's Universal EV Platform: competing on physics, not marketing: Ford's skunkworks team in California has developed a midsize pickup starting at $30,000, launching next year—20% fewer parts, 50 additional miles of range from aerodynamics alone. CEO Jim Farley frames it directly: "This is how we will compete and win against China."
+ For Detroit and the broader US auto industry: this is the most credible response to Chinese EV competition that any US OEM has produced. Watch the launch closely.
EV carmakers register $65 billion in write-offs globally: Semafor reports the US's elimination of the $7,500 federal tax credit in September accelerated industry-wide restructuring. Companies are reverting to gas-powered vehicle production.
+ The US pivot away from EVs is real and measurable. Supply chain players who positioned heavily for all-EV timelines need to reassess. Hybrid remains the durable middle ground.
Palantir relocates headquarters to Miami, Florida.
+ The symbolism is intentional. Miami has become the default landing zone for companies signaling alignment with the current political environment in Washington. Palantir's government business depends on those relationships.
Warner reopens talks with Paramount after sweetened offer: WSJ reports Warner's board has given Paramount a seven-day window. The media consolidation wave continues.
OpenAI and Anthropic deals power Abu Dhabi's $100 billion AI bet: Bloomberg reports MGX plans to spend up to $10 billion annually on AI infrastructure over the next several years.
+ Gulf sovereign wealth is becoming a major structural force in AI infrastructure buildout. This capital operates on longer time horizons and faces fewer political constraints than US or European institutional investors.
Spain to probe X, Meta, TikTok over AI-generated child sexual abuse material: The Spanish government has ordered prosecutors to investigate. European regulatory pressure on big tech is multi-fronted and accelerating.
*** Culture ***
Chinese kung-fu robots steal the show at Lunar New Year gala—watched by 600 million viewers: Le Monde reports CCTV's annual gala served as a showcase for China's robotics and AI advances.
+ This is soft power deployment at scale. Six hundred million viewers—the world's most-watched annual broadcast—and China used the moment to showcase technological capability, not cultural heritage. The message to global audiences: China's AI and robotics advances are real, they are national priorities, and they are being normalized as sources of pride. US tech leadership cannot be assumed.
Why your most creative ideas come after a night of sleep: WP reports REM sleep meaningfully improves problem-solving. For executives running on limited sleep during high-intensity periods—note taken.
*** Sport ***
One tiny country dominates the Winter Olympics—again: Norway, with the population of Minnesota, is racking up gold medals at Milan-Cortina. The WSJ explores the infrastructure, culture, and investment model behind consistent dominance.
+ The Norwegian model—long-term investment in youth development, elite infrastructure, and the cultural normalization of elite sport—is a competitive-advantage framework. The countries that win consistently aren't the richest. They're the most systematically invested.
Russian and Belarusian athletes permitted to compete under national flags at 2026 Paralympics: Le Monde reports that six Russian and four Belarusian athletes have been cleared to compete under their own flags in Milan-Cortina. Ukraine's Paralympic Committee is "very angry and outraged."
+ The IPC's decision fractures the unified Western position that sports governing bodies maintained post-Ukraine invasion. For companies sponsoring Paralympic athletes or the Games: reputational exposure requires a clear public position.
Athletes from Africa push for Winter Olympics inclusion: Six skiers representing Jamaica, Kenya, Eritrea, Madagascar, South Africa, and Benin gathered in Bormio to advocate for greater access.
+ The geography of elite winter sport is narrowing. The IOC's long-term sustainability depends on genuine global inclusion—not just symbolic. Watch how this pressure translates into structural program investment.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Global Daily | February 17
Caracal Global Daily
February 17, 2026
Detroit, MI
Here's what a Chief Geopolitical Officer should be monitoring today:
*** Today's Focus ***
Item 1: Middle powers construct a bypass around US tariff volatility: Politico reports that Canadian PM Carney is spearheading discussions on the EU-Indo-Pacific trade bloc to insulate businesses from Washington policy whiplash.
Why this matters: Supply chains will actively migrate to non-US-dependent corridors; tariff uncertainty is forcing permanent realignment
Item 2: Trans-Atlantic alliance fractures deeper despite Rubio's warmer rhetoric: The WSJ reports that European officials acknowledge that Secretary of State's Munich message changed tone but not substance—Europe now plans to develop an independent strategic capability.
Why this matters: The US cannot assume European subordination on security; allies are making decisions without assuming American backing
Item 3: AI cost structure advantage shifts to lower-wage geographies: The WSJ reports that India is developing AI capabilities without Western capital burn rates—proving that emerging markets can compete on efficiency, not spending.
Why this matters: US/China AI dominance narrows; talent arbitrage accelerates toward APAC; competitive moat eroding
*** Ross Rant ***
Drop dead, Global Great Lakes: How petty grievances drive Team Trump's economic cabotage
Howard Lutnick, US Secretary of Commerce, met with Matthew Moroun on Monday. Moroun's family owns the Ambassador Bridge, the busiest US-Canada border crossing. For years, they have lobbied against a Canadian-led rival bridge. Within hours, Lutnick relayed the conversation to President Trump. On Tuesday, Trump announced via social media that he would block the Gordie Howe International Bridge, the crossing currently under construction.
The cause-and-effect is unmistakable. The pattern is now familiar.
To understand Team Trump's policymaking, recognize that it is driven by a collection of solo operators animated by petty grievances and zero institutional accountability. No boards. No shareholders. No civic responsibility. Layer in visceral disdain for "globalists," thier outsized egos, chips carried on every shoulder, and a pay-to-play approach to Trump administration pet projects. You arrive at exactly this brand of self-defeating economic nonsense.
This is not incompetence. This is design. And it is about to reshape supply chains, capital allocation, and geopolitical strategy for companies that need to cross US borders and reach international markets.
The Global Great Lakes region, spanning eight US states and two Canadian provinces, generates between $6 trillion and $9.3 trillion in annual GDP. If this region were an independent nation, it would be the world's third-largest economy. The region accounts for roughly 30 percent of combined US-Canadian economic activity, sustains 51 million jobs, and supports 107 million lives.
The Detroit-Windsor border alone moves $300 million in bilateral trade daily through existing infrastructure. This is not theoretical economics. It is the operational backbone of North American manufacturing, agriculture, logistics, and economic security.
Yet Team Trump's response to this economic powerhouse is unambiguous: Drop dead.
Protectionism plays well politically. It performs terribly economically. The promise of protection through isolation is a mirage that obscures harsh realities. Manufacturing supply chains crossing the US-Canada border do not represent abstract trade statistics. They represent real communities, real families, real livelihoods whose prosperity depends on seamless cross-border collaboration.
The Great Lakes region thrives because its manufacturing, agriculture, and logistics sectors have developed integrated, cross-border systems. Blocking a competing bridge does not enhance American competitiveness. It erodes it. It fragments supply chains. It increases transportation costs. It extends delivery times. It invites retaliation from Canada and signals to foreign multinational companies considering investing in America that US infrastructure policy is now subordinate to the real estate interests of Trump administration allies.
Trump's latest move signals the broader economic reality: A new era of persistent tariff volatility and policy uncertainty has arrived.
Three imperatives demand immediate attention from business leaders.
First, supply chain diversification is no longer optional. Companies must develop redundancies across production, sourcing, and distribution. Single-source dependencies become liabilities. Nearshoring, friendshoring, and geographic diversification are operational necessities, not cost luxuries. The era of just-in-time efficiency maximized without redundancy has ended.
Second, interest rates will remain elevated as the US government continues massive deficit spending while tariff policies generate inflationary pressures. Refinancing maturing debt becomes expensive. Capital expenditures require higher hurdle rates. Financial officers must stress-test balance sheets against 5%-8% scenarios.
Third, government relationships function as critical infrastructure. The Lutnick-Moroun example demonstrates that administration access determines outcomes. Border-region companies must actively participate in policy discussions. C-suite executives must allocate time to stakeholder relations.
This is where strategic communications becomes essential operational infrastructure. In an era when petty grievances drive trillion-dollar policy decisions, understanding the political economy of your sector is no longer a luxury. It is core risk management.
The Global Great Lakes region can either become a casualty of Team Trump's real estate vendettas or an anchor of continental resilience. That choice resides with business leadership willing to engage strategically in an era of permanent disruption.
Prepare accordingly.
-Marc
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
NATO + Europe
Rubio appeals to shared values in Munich; European officials see transactional retrenchment: WP, FT, NYT report Secretary of State shifted tone from JD Vance's aggressive framing, but the substance remained: America First. The disconnect reveals a deeper fracture—Europe no longer assumes US security protection is permanent. Julia Ioffe of Puck frames Munich as the moment when the US-led transatlantic order became a mirror for European anxieties that America is becoming a threat, not an ally.
US messaging mismatch between rhetoric and policy underscores the urgent, not optional, need for European independent capability-building. Watch for NATO member defense spending announcements—they will accelerate. This matters for companies with European ops: threats are being reassessed daily. Reconstruction investment in European defense/energy is now a strategic opportunity, not a risk.
German foreign minister challenges France's defense commitment: Le Monde reports Johann Wadephul called Macron's defense spending insufficient even as France champions "European sovereignty." The rebuke signals NATO fissures extend beyond US-Europe relations—intra-European burden-sharing tensions are now public.
NATO 3.0 (Pentagon's pressure campaign for European independence) is fracturing European unity. Expect separate national defense strategies over a unified alliance response.
NATO simulation reveals alliance unprepared for drone warfare: WSJ reports NATO conducted war games showing how far the alliance has to go in learning Ukraine's lessons. Autonomous drone swarms, distributed command structures, and real-time coordination gaps are critical vulnerabilities.
NATO doctrine is reactive. Companies with defense-industrial exposure should model shifting requirements away from platform-centric procurement toward distributed, autonomous systems.
Canada accelerates 'Buy Canada' defense strategy: Bloomberg reports Canada will more than triple defense industry revenue, boost exports 50%, and create 125,000 jobs—reducing reliance on US security procurement. A C$500 billion investment over 10 years is aimed at achieving 70% domestic sourcing for defense acquisitions.
North American defense-industrial integration is fracturing. Companies with cross-border supply chains must audit US-Canada defense dependencies; repatriation and redundancy are now policy, not market preference.
Carney constructs mega-alliance to bypass Trump tariff volatility: Politico reports that the Canadian PM is spearheading discussions on an EU-Indo-Pacific trade bloc (1.5 billion people, harmonized rules of origin) to create stable trade corridors outside US-China competition. Business groups throughout Europe support the rules-of-origin pact—German Chamber of Commerce and British Chambers of Commerce backing the effort.
Middle powers are actively decoupling from Washington tariff whiplash. This is not trade negotiation—it's permanent realignment. Supply chains will seek non-US routes not out of preference, but out of necessity.
China
Xi's military purges signal Beijing's renewed commitment to strategic ambition: Foreign Affairs reports that Xi's continued purging of PLA commanders reflects confidence in forcing Trump into a "truce" last year. Christopher Johnson frames this as stepwise consolidation over Xi's three terms: the removal of commanders who resist the military modernization agenda. The purges aren't chaos—they're purpose-driven.
Uncertainty in Chinese military command is tactical, not strategic. Xi's confidence in his vision is rising, not falling. Corporate intelligence gathering on China should shift from assessing stability to assessing Xi's military modernization timeline. This matters for defense contractors, supply chain security, and technology firms. For tech companies: Xi's military purges validate the justification for nearshoring investments. For defense contractors: accelerate hiring for China-intelligence roles.
American allies flocking to Beijing discover China's reluctance to weaponize leverage: Economist reports allied nations visiting Xi find Chinese leadership not yet deploying its considerable leverage—bilateral meetings are "thin in substance." Signal: Beijing is patient. Alliance pressure on the US is building organically through economic incentives, not coercion. China is letting Trump do the work.
US-allied defection from Washington is driven by self-interest, not by Chinese pressure. That's more durable for Beijing than forced compliance. Watch for trade agreements between allies and China that don't require Chinese arm-twisting.
Chinese bicultural generation signals cultural divergence from official ideology: Chicago Booth reports that young people in mainland China have grown up exposed to Western culture since the 1978 reforms—Hollywood, McDonald's, iPhones—creating what psychologists call a "multicultural" identity. This generation is neither purely Chinese nor Western in orientation.
Official CCP cultural nationalism is at odds with generational reality. Soft power competition in Asia isn't US vs. China—it's multiple competing cultures within China itself. Companies should invest in understanding Chinese youth markets as fundamentally diverse rather than monolithic.
Trade + Global Commerce
Jamieson Greer: The quiet architect rewriting global trade rules: NYT profiles the low-key lawyer from a working-class background engineering Trump's global trade war—reshaping global economy rules at the president's behest. Behind-the-scenes influence without a public profile makes him the actual architect of tariff policy.
Trade policy is now weaponized by true believers, not institutional economists. This is permanent, not cyclical. Companies need government affairs teams focused on understanding Greer's specific policy vector, not generic Trump tariff trends.
Populists losing MAGA tug-of-war over antitrust policy: FT reports Gail Slater's exit from Justice Department signals pro-business Republicans ascendant in Trump antitrust efforts. The fight between populist breakup advocates and business-friendly consolidation supporters is being won by the latter.
Antitrust enforcement will be selective (targeting specific competitors, not broad-based challenges to monopolies). The M&A environment is actually loosening despite Trump's populist rhetoric. Companies should model consolidation scenarios while the antitrust window is open.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Congress
GOP congressional members concede Greenland threat left mark on trans-Atlantic relations: NYT reports lawmakers acknowledged Trump's interest in Greenland harmed US credibility despite hopes for a less bellicose approach. The damage is internalized; repair is long-term.
Congressional allies cannot contain presidential rhetoric that hardens foreign opinion. European strategic autonomy is now a bipartisan concern in Congress—expect pressure on Trump from his own party as infrastructure/trade damage accumulates.
Election 2028
AOC's Munich debut stumbles on class-warfare framing and Taiwan policy gaps: WP editorial reports Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had a high-profile but rocky international debut, championing "working-class" foreign policy while critics characterized approach as divisive populism. She struggled on Taiwan specificity.
The 2028 Democratic field is still searching for a coherent foreign policy alternative to Trump. Expect intra-party debate on economic nationalism vs. progressive internationalism to intensify.
PA Governor Josh Shapiro builds 2028 national network during 2026 reelection: Shapiro is using his book tour and reelection campaign to build a fundraising network for a potential 2028 run—positioning himself as a pragmatic executive alternative.
The Democratic 2028 field is taking shape early. Economic competence and executive experience (not progressive ideology) are emerging as differentiators. Watch for the Shapiro vs. progressive wing conflict over tariffs and trade policy.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
AI + Machine Learning
India's frugal AI strategy proves emerging markets can compete on efficiency: The WSJ reports that India is developing artificial-intelligence capability without the Western capital burn rates—demonstrating that AI dominance isn't purely a function of spending but of talent deployment efficiency.
The US/China AI competitive moat is narrowing. Talent arbitrage accelerates toward lower-cost APAC geographies. Competitive advantage in AI is shifting from capital advantage to organizational efficiency. This validates earlier concerns about AI commoditization faster than anticipated. For tech companies: efficiency audit of AI spend is now urgent. For HR teams: India/Southeast Asia talent acquisition becomes a strategic competitive advantage.
Anthropic's new AI work tools are entering a crowded market of bespoke legal/consulting products: FT reports enterprise AI tools must compete with specialized products already embedded in legal, consulting, and professional services workflows. Plug-in adaptability will determine market share, not raw capability.
Enterprise AI adoption is not monolithic—it's workflow-specific. Companies betting on single-AI-platform dominance are missing the actual market structure: fragmented, specialized, and difficult to dislodge once embedded.
AI doesn't reduce work—it intensifies it, requiring corporate 'AI practice': HBR reports research showing AI tools don't lower workload, they increase intensity. Companies need "AI practice"—norms and standards for responsible use, including intentional pauses, work sequencing, and human grounding.
The promised AI productivity gains are not materializing at scale. Companies are using AI to compress schedules, not reduce labor. This has implications for wage pressures, burnout, and regulatory scrutiny of AI labor impacts.
Voice IP theft: NPR's David Greene sues Google over AI voice replication: WP reports voice actor says he was "completely freaked out" hearing AI replica of his voice used without consent. Legal battle over voice IP and AI replication rights just entered public consciousness.
Voice, image, and likeness IP protection is now a critical regulatory risk for companies training AI models on public data. Expect legislative action on consent-based AI training and right-of-publicity enforcement.
Technology + Markets
Meta planning facial recognition for Ray-Ban glasses—timing launch during "dynamic political environment": The NYT reports that Meta is considering facial recognition for smart glasses, with a launch as early as 2026. Internal memo reveals the company plans to roll out during a "dynamic political environment" when civil society groups are distracted.
Meta is deliberately timing the launch of privacy-intrusive technology to minimize public resistance. This signals a broader industry calculation that the regulatory window is closing. Companies should expect accelerated deployment of surveillance-adjacent technology before regulatory backlash closes the window.
SpaceX competing in Pentagon drone autonomy contest: Bloomberg reports Elon Musk's SpaceX and xAI are competing to develop voice-controlled, autonomous drone swarming technology. Phased development from software to real-life testing for offensive applications.
Autonomous weapons development is accelerating from theoretical to operational testing. Companies with defense contracting exposure should monitor the SpaceX/Pentagon relationship as an indicator of the Trump administration's technology preference.
Business Disruption
Southwest Airlines abandons legendary "bags fly free" policy; customers mourn loss of differentiator: WP reports airline under pressure to boost bottom line has eliminated open seating, added bag fees—abandoning brand positioning that once set it apart. Strategic transformation is eroding customer loyalty.
Companies cannot sustain a competitive advantage through policy alone if the financial model doesn't support it. Southwest's transformation signals a broader trend: legacy differentiation models are unsustainable in the current cost environment. Expect more brand "death by a thousand fees" erosion.
Warner Bros Discovery reopening sale talks with Paramount/Skydance: Bloomberg reports WBD is considering renewed acquisition talks after Paramount and Netflix signaled willingness to raise bids. The media consolidation cycle is accelerating despite broader antitrust concerns.
Media consolidation is still possible under the Trump administration's antitrust environment. Expect continued M&A activity in the entertainment industry as streaming wars commoditize content and drive consolidation. Valuation arbitrage is narrowing—expect transactions to close at higher multiples.
*** Culture ***
Coffee consumption linked to lower dementia risk: Harvard-led research analyzing 130,000+ people finds that 2-3 cups of coffee per day correlate with reduced dementia risk. JAMA publication validates coffee as a functional health intervention.
The food/beverage industry has underestimated the health narrative differentiation of coffee. Companies should invest in coffee origin/quality storytelling as health positioning—not commodity pricing. Global coffee demand will increase as health benefits become more widely known. For beverage companies: this validates premium positioning for specialty coffee; commoditized coffee faces margin compression.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Global Daily | February 13
Caracal Global Daily
Caracal Global Daily is a human-curated global intelligence briefing that connects geopolitical developments, economic trends, and strategic business insights.
February 13, 2026
Detroit, MI
*** Ross Rant ***
The CIA releases a recruitment video. Your business should be taking notes.
How does the CIA conduct spy recruitment today? It posts a video on YouTube, of course.
Not quietly. Not in a classified brief shared with Congressional oversight committees. But loudly, on social media, in Mandarin, aimed at disillusioned Chinese military officers. The message was direct: contact us securely. Tell us the truth about China's leadership. Help us understand what Beijing is hiding.
This wasn't public relations theater. This was a strategic signal wrapped in a recruitment strategy, and it tells corporate America something essential about the world you're operating in right now.
The timing matters. The CIA released "Save the Future" just weeks after China purged General Zhang Youxia, the number two uniformed officer on Chairman Xi's Central Military Commission, along with General Liu Zhenli. Zhang's removal represents the most serious purge of top Chinese military leadership since Mao. But he wasn't the first. Dozens of similar moves against senior People's Liberation Army (PLA) generals have occurred in recent years, all orchestrated by Xi and signaling instability at the highest levels of Chinese military command.
For US intelligence agencies, this creates an opportunity. Extensive purges mean extensive frustration. Qualified officers are being replaced by political loyalists. Career professionals watch unqualified party members leapfrog the merit system. The documentary framing in that CIA video captures this reality: the disillusioned officer watching capable generals removed and replaced by apparatchiks, witnessing how corruption corrodes both institutions and families.
The CIA's message to these officers was telling: your duty is to China and its citizens, not to the Communist Party. Contact us. Help us understand the truth. The subtext was unmistakable: Beijing's instability creates vulnerability.
Here's what this means for global business operating in China:
The United States and China are no longer competitors in any conventional sense. They are strategic adversaries engaged in a permanent competition for intelligence, influence, and advantage. That CIA video wasn't an exception to the rules of geopolitical engagement. It was confirmation that those rules have fundamentally changed. The recruiting video was the tip of a much larger intelligence war now playing out across technology, military capabilities, supply chains, and economic influence.
Your business operates within this context, whether you're a manufacturer reliant on Asian supply chains, a technology firm concerned about China's espionage capabilities, or a global enterprise managing government relationships across multiple jurisdictions. The world your board discussed five years ago was one of managed competition and gradual decoupling. The world you're operating in now is one of rapid, unpredictable disruption.
This manifests in three concrete ways:
First, tariff volatility is now a permanent feature of American trade policy. Team Trump's approach to China, allies, and trading partners suggests that traditional frameworks are finished. Supply chain plans built on assumptions of stable tariff environments are obsolete. You need redundancy, geographic diversification, and strategic planning that assumes tariffs will shift.
Second, supply chain resilience requires government relationships as an essential strategy. Your sourcing strategy must now account for not just cost efficiency but also geopolitical risk, export control regimes, and the need to maintain relationships with multiple governments simultaneously. That's not a communications problem. It's an operational necessity.
Third, interest rate environments will remain elevated and volatile as long as the geopolitical uncertainty persists. Your financial planning cannot assume the near-zero rate environment of the previous decade. Budget for higher costs of capital. Plan for continued pressure on margins.
The common thread?
You cannot navigate this environment reactively.
You need a strategic framework for understanding persistent geopolitical volatility, not temporary disruption.
That requires three things: intelligence on what's actually happening in global geopolitics, not what traditional media reports; a strategy for engaging government stakeholders, competitors, and allies simultaneously; and a communications architecture that helps your board, your teams, and your stakeholders understand the landscape you're operating in.
Caracal Global helps multinational corporations navigate this terrain. Our team, led by a Michigan-born, DC-based strategist with expertise spanning US-China relations, NATO, and national political campaigns, specializes in intelligence, strategy, and communications at the intersection of globalization and American politics. We help you translate geopolitical reality into operational capability.
The CIA's video is a brilliant recruitment strategy. But for you, it's a reminder: the geopolitical ground is shifting beneath your business.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
2026 State of Security: Explore the intelligence from Recorded Future's Insikt Group annual threat landscape analysis: the definitive report on how geopolitical fragmentation, state-sponsored operations, and criminal ecosystem evolution are reshaping global risk. Report
The future of US nuclear weapons policy Alison Fong
CIA releases new video in bid to lure Chinese military officers to spy for US: FT reports the US intelligence agency seeks to tap into frustration over extensive purges at People’s Liberation Army. Watch the video here.
+ The US intelligence agency on Thursday released a video titled “Save the Future” on YouTube and other social media, nine months after it published Chinese-language videos to help recruitment for the first time.
+ The video will also be published on X, Facebook, Instagram, and LinkedIn.
CIA releases new video recruiting spies in China: Le Monde reports that the Chinese text accompanying the clip, posted on the agency's YouTube channel on Thursday, appeals for leaks about Beijing's leaders, military, and other areas. The move is likely to further infuriate China.
America and China at the edge of ruin: A last chance to step back from the brink. David M. Lampton + Wang Jisi
What China is really up to in the Arctic: Its close co-operation with Russia is alarming many in the region. Economist
Trump reins in China tech curbs: The Trump administration has paused several tech curbs aimed at Beijing ahead of President Donald Trump’s visit to China, Reuters reported. The shelved measures include restrictions on the sale of Chinese hardware to US data centers.
Lunar New Year travel: China is expecting a record 9.5 billion trips to be made during the 40-day Lunar New Year travel period, as Beijing targets tourism to boost domestic consumption.
Taiwan warns neighbours ‘you’ll be next’ if China invades: The Times reports President Lai cautions that if Taipei falls, Beijing will continue its crusade across the Indo-Pacific.
North Korea: According to South Korea's National Intelligence Service, Kim Jong Un will designate his daughter Kim Ju Ae as his successor, which would make her the first female leader in North Korea's history.
The world’s most powerful woman: Japan’s prime minister has earned a once-in-a-generation chance to remake her country. Will she seize it? Economist
Today: The Munich Security Conference begins.
AP: Europe warily awaits Rubio at Munich Security Conference as Trump roils transatlantic ties
In Munich, Europe’s leaders wonder if they can ever trust America again: Officials gather on Friday for Europe’s biggest annual security summit, where a speech by Vice President JD Vance last year started an unraveling of trans-Atlantic relations. NYT
Germany and France now publicly display their disagreements over Macron's proposals: Le Monde reports Friedrich Merz's government has criticized the idea of a joint European loan and the push for European preference in goods purchases advocated by Emmanuel Macron. These disagreements come on top of tensions over the Mercosur trade deal and the use of frozen Russian assets.
A German general prepares his country for war—and the clock is ticking: Could Russia launch a war across Europe? The Germans aren’t waiting to find out. WSJ
Poll: Top NATO allies don’t think the US helps deter enemies anymore. The United States' eroding reputation is raising fresh questions about the stability of the global order that has held for decades and about the country's strength on the world stage. Politico
AP: NATO launches Arctic Sentry military effort in seeking to move on from Greenland dispute
Swedish deputy PM: European leaders must ‘toughen up,’ stop waiting for Brussels, US: Politico reports that if member countries take the initiative in certain areas, it would make the EU more agile and less bureaucratic, Ebba Busch says.
Inside Epstein’s network: What 1.4m emails reveal about America’s most notorious sex offender. Economist
Gordon Brown has called for the police to interview Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor over Jeffrey Epstein’s sex-trafficking network.
Honey traps and hidden cameras: All of Epstein’s suspicious ties to Moscow: Telegraph reports from Moscow flights to friendships with Kremlin officials, the late paedophile’s emails raise alarming questions over his ties to Putin.
Russia is looking to the developing world to recruit labor and combatants as its war in Ukraine churns on.
France bets on nuclear as climate policy fractures across Europe: FT reports ambitious solar and wind plans trimmed as government confronts political challenge.
US smuggled thousands of Starlink terminals into Iran after protest crackdown: WSJ reports the Trump administration has denied fomenting public unrest in Iran, but the operation shows it has provided covert support to antiregime efforts.
Bloomberg: Trump says he sees Iran talks resolving ‘over the next month’
Israel charges two over Polymarket bets on military operations: FT reports a civilian and reservist charged with security offences, bribery and obstructing justice after ‘red line’ crossed with online gambling.
American refugees aren’t welcome: Why Canada won’t be a safe haven for US residents fleeing ICE. Greg Willoughby
Mexico seizes huge cocaine haul in rare joint action with US: FT reports operation in the Pacific came hours after border airspace was temporarily closed.
AP: 2 Mexican Navy ships laden with humanitarian aid dock in Cuba as US blockade sparks energy crisis
Cuba’s fate may be in Marco Rubio’s hands: The Economist understands that American officials are considering sending fuel to the island to stave off a humanitarian crisis. Economist
Oil companies in ‘active’ talks over recouping Venezuela losses: Bloomberg reports ConocoPhillips and other energy companies that lost billions of dollars after Venezuela nationalized its oil industry decades ago are in talks with acting Venezuela President Delcy Rodríguez over recouping some ground, according to US Energy Secretary Chris Wright.
Nicolás Maduro is still the 'legitimate president' of Venezuela, acting leader Delcy Rodriguez says: “Cooperation is off to a tremendous start,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright told NBC News as the two countries hammered out details of how Venezuela’s vast oil reserves are to be distributed.
Two US Navy ships collide in waters near South America: WSJ reports two personnel report minor injuries after ship-to-ship refueling.
Cartel drones vs Texas lasers Joshua Treviño
El Paso incident highlights gaps in America’s drone defense industry: The US has spent billions of dollars developing counter-drone technology, but much of it needs more testing in the real world. NYT
US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says: Central bank’s research undercuts Trump’s claims that foreign companies will pay for levies. FT
Americans are paying the bill for tariffs, despite Trump’s claims: Research from the New York Fed confirms that US companies and consumers are bearing tariff costs, despite the president’s assertions otherwise. NYT
On Trump’s tariffs, Supreme Court hurries up and waits: The justices put the case on a fast track at the administration’s urging. But they don’t seem in a rush to rule on the president’s signature economic program. NYT
*** US Politics + Elections ***
The Hill: DHS shutdown imminent after Senate Democrats block Homeland Security bill
+ A Saturday shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security is all but inevitable after the Senate failed to advance a funding bill and headed out on a week-long break without a deal on new limits on immigration enforcement.
MN + ICE: Trump’s border czar said Thursday that the administration is ending its immigration enforcement surge in Minnesota.
SOTU: Trump is scheduled to deliver his State of the Union Address on February 24.
Americans with higher incomes are starting to fall behind on payments: WSJ reports rising debt levels and more missed payments pushed a financial stress gauge to its highest level ever.
CNBC: Realtors report a ‘new housing crisis’ as January home sales tank more than 8%
Trump’s home investment crackdown is all about the suburbs: Wall Street forgives; voters may not. FT
NYT: Trump repeals US power to regulate climate
Trump revokes key climate finding, dismantling legal basis for emissions rules: Le Mode reports the US president is scrapping the landmark 2009 finding that greenhouse gases threaten human life by warming the planet. The move is expected to face swift legal challenges.
AP: Pentagon let CBP use anti-drone laser before FAA closed El Paso airspace, AP sources say
Gabbard Whistleblower complaint based on intercepted conversation about Jared Kushner: WSJ reports the substance of the conversation, which covered in part issues related to Iran, isn’t known.
Intelligence dispute centers on Kushner reference in intercepted communication: NYT reports a whistle-blower has accused Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, of blocking distribution of a report that Jared Kushner’s name came up in an intercepted communication about Iran.
QOTD: “I’m not scared of a germ. I used to snort cocaine off of toilet seats.” -- Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, on a podcast.
Gail Slater steps down as DOJ’s antitrust chief: Politico reports Slater led some of the agency’s most prominent antitrust cases, particularly against the tech industry.
Federal court blocks Hegseth effort to punish Democratic senator: Politico reports the judge said the Pentagon had “trampled” on Sen. Mark Kelly’s First Amendment freedoms.
Judge rejects Hegseth bid to punish Sen. Kelly for video message to troops: WP reports the Trump administration intends to appeal the ruling, which says the retired Navy officer’s right to free speech was under attack.
As the US nears its 250th birthday, dissatisfaction with democracy is widespread: The nation stands out among international surveys of democracy for critical views of leaders and institutions. Richard Wike
Top Republican ends bid for Arizona governor, showing MAGA’s power: NYT reports Karrin Taylor Robson, a wealthy businesswoman, dropped out after trailing in polls to Representative Andy Biggs, who is more aligned with supporters of President Trump.
Politico: House Democrats think Pam Bondi just helped them in the midterms
A tech group is launching a new effort to keep Democrats from falling behind on AI: Tech for Campaigns plans to partner with Democratic groups to test what works. Politico
Anthropic said it would donate $20 million to a super PAC focused on AI safety and regulation, setting up a fight with rival and top political spender OpenAI.
+ Anthropic PBC is donating $20 million to Public First, a political advocacy group that backs congressional candidates who favor safety rules for artificial intelligence.
+ The donation aims to strengthen AI safety advocates' fight against Leading the Future, a super PAC that plans to spend $125 million to support lighter regulation of the technology.
+ Anthropic's contribution is part of its commitment to governance that enables AI's transformative potential and helps proportionately manage its risks.
Anthropic puts $20 million into a Super PAC operation to counter OpenAI: NYT reports Anthropic and OpenAI now have their own well-funded political groups that will square off in the midterm elections over artificial intelligence safety and regulation.
OpenAI pivots its California ballot fight to legislature: Politico reports that should talks with state lawmakers not pan out, the Parents and Kids Safe AI Act campaign is reserving the option to go for the 2028 ballot.
The truth about Tucker Carlson – and it isn’t pretty: Telegraph reports the controversial US pundit is a fascinating and unpredictable figure. But he emerges from a new book as a slick opportunist above all.
This Tucker Carlson biography is a chronicle of an era John Mac Ghlionn
Is Tucker Carlson now too extreme for the MAGA crowd? The pugillistic pundit’s long journey from mainstream conservative to conspiracy theorist is chronicled by Jason Zengerle in Hated By All the Right People. The Times
AP: Trump’s defamation lawsuit against the BBC is set to go to trial in 2027, US judge says
Apple faces new tensions with Trump administration: FT reports US regulator issues warning to iPhone maker about its News platform following controversy over Super Bowl half-time show.
The unflinching hosts of ‘I’ve Had It’ aren’t backing down: Jennifer Welch and Angie Sullivan have emerged as effective political commentators. WP
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
This technology could revolutionize electricity — from space: Wireless power transmission from space was once science fiction. It could soon become a reality. WP
China’s rising AI billionaires: A new generation of entrepreneurs is challenging US dominance — and rapidly building huge fortunes on the back of China’s quest for technological independence. Bloomberg
They want to turn Greenland into an AI powerhouse. Locals aren’t buying it. A former Trump official and a Greenlandic businessman want to hitch the island up to the US through investment. WSJ
AI is getting scary good at making predictions: Even superforecasters are guessing that they’ll soon be obsolete. Ross Andersen
Anthropic finalizes $30 billion fundraising round at $380 billion valuation.
OpenAI rival Anthropic doubles valuation to $380 billion in $30 billion funding round: Le Monde reports the round, led by Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC and hedge fund Coatue Management, is among the largest private fundraising deals on record and comes just five months after the company closed its previous round at a $183 billion valuation.
Anthropic to cover costs of electricity price increases from its data centers: NBC News reports that leading AI company Anthropic said it would upgrade power grid infrastructure, generate new power, and cover consumer price increases to minimize the effects of its data centers.
VCs break taboo by backing both Anthropic, OpenAI in AI battle: Silicon Valley investors are breaking a longstanding taboo by investing in competing startups. Bloomberg
How private equity’s big bet on software was derailed by AI: Dealmakers and lenders are facing a ‘Darwinian moment’ as digital services risk being made obsolete by new technologies. FT
Why the AI attack on software has unnerved so many industries: The battle over the use of agents is starting to come into focus. Richard Waters
Real estate stocks sink as worries about AI risks spread: Bloomberg reports commercial real estate stocks nosedived Thursday as traders worried about risk to demand for office space from higher use of artificial intelligence tools, broadening a selloff that began Wednesday in a small corner of the market.
+ Analysts describe the selloff as part of the "AI scare trade", with some warning that the selling may be overestimating the risks of AI disruption.
Instagram chief says social media is not ‘clinically addictive’ in landmark trial: Adam Mosseri, who leads the Meta-owned app, testified that the company was careful to test features used by young people before releasing them. NYT
Don’t ban teenagers from social media: Restrictions would do more harm than good. Economist
For the first time, X tracked conversation about this year's Super Bowl ads in real time as it seeks to re-cement itself as the dominant digital town square.
Where the battle for Warner Bros. stands now: The situation intensified this week as Paramount CEO David Ellison—and a vocal investor—made new moves to thwart rival Netflix’s planned takeover. WSJ
Compass Coffee had Starbucks-size ambitions. Here’s how it unraveled. The homegrown DC coffee chain’s push to expand its way to profitability ended in a January bankruptcy filing. WP
*** Culture ***
F1 producer Jerry Bruckheimer has confirmed a sequel is in the works.
Sandra Bernhard has been cast in the upcoming fourth season of The White Lotus.
The case for tourist taxes: Milan is hiking up its tourist levy in time for the Olympics. Bustling Canadian vacation towns should get in on the action too. Heather Spearman
Today: Carnival begins in Rio de Janeiro.
The secret to happiness? These experts say it’s feeling loved by others. A happiness researcher and a relationship expert teamed up to write about how we can all feel more loved. They argue it’s the key to happiness. WP
*** Sport ***
The secret edge of the office ‘rock star’ skier: Being an alpine ace can help you stand out at work, especially with company ski outings on the rise. Callum Borchers
Ice hockey at the 2026 Olympics: A mountain sport looks to win over France's big cities: The majority of players on the French national team hail from urban centers. This shift reflects the changing landscape of the sport across the country. Le Monde
Olympics crowd showed ‘European pride’ by booing JD Vance, EU top diplomat says: Politico reports: “Our public also has a pride, a European pride,” foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told an interviewer.
Did controversial judging cost US figure skaters a gold medal? In notoriously subjective ice dance, the Olympic title came down to the Americans, their French rivals, and the only people whose opinions mattered: the nine judges. WSJ
Could AI Judge the Olympics? In elite sports, technology makes competition fairer. Laurel Walzak
AP: Ukraine’s Vladyslav Heraskevych out of Winter Olympics because of banned helmet honoring war dead
Volodymyr Zelenskyy hits out after Olympics bars Ukrainian racer: FT reports Vladyslav Heraskevych wanted to wear helmet honouring compatriots killed in war during skeleton event.
Gold medal in the bag, Breezy Johnson gets more hardware: An engagement ring: WP reports Connor Watkins proposed to the US skier after she crashed out of the super-G, her final event of the Olympic Games.
Slovakian fugitive caught trying to attend hockey game at Milan Olympics after 16 years on the run: Toronto Star reports officers initially issued a warrant for the 44-year-old man in 2010 for a string of shoplifting thefts, which Reuters reports will cost him 11 months and seven days in prison.
NBA: Seattle and Las Vegas are the front-runners for expansion teams, with one current Western Conference team moving to the Eastern Conference.
Cade Cunningham is now a minority owner of the Texas Rangers.
Jim Ratcliffe immigration comments leave Man United hierarchy horrified: The Times reports club distance themselves from co-owner after he said Britain was ‘colonised by immigrants’, with statement saying United has ‘embedded equality, diversity and inclusion into everything we do.’
+ The Football Association is assessing Jim Ratcliffe’s remarks that Britain has been ‘colonised by immigrants.’ The Man United co-owner apologised this morning for his ‘choice of language’, acknowledging that he had ‘offended some people’, but that it was ‘important to raise the issue’ of immigration.
Inside NFL owner Steve Tisch’s ‘brief association’ with Epstein: WSJ reports files show Jeffrey Epstein introduced the New York Giants chairman and Hollywood producer to two women who were caught in Epstein’s web of abuse.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal