Canada just assembled a trade war cabinet

Mark Carney did not name an advisory committee. He named a trade war cabinet.

Twenty-four names. Cross-partisan. CEOs from BMO, CN Rail, TC Energy, Nutrien, and Teck Resources. Leaders from steel, auto parts, dairy, lumber, mining, and indigenous business. Former Conservative leader Erin O'Toole is sitting across the table from former Liberal finance minister Ralph Goodale. Former Quebec Premier Jean Charest is in the same room as Unifor's national president.

In Canadian politics, that kind of lineup is not consultation. That is mobilization.

The Canada-US-Mexico Agreement, known as CUSMA in Canada and USMCA in the United States, is up for review this year. And if you run a company with meaningful North American exposure — supply chain, sourcing, manufacturing, logistics, sales — you should be treating this moment with the same seriousness Ottawa just signaled it deserves.

The backdrop is not subtle

Start with the numbers. The US has imposed a broad tariff regime on Canada since Trump returned to office. Products traded under USMCA rules are nominally exempt, but that has not shielded Canadian steel, aluminum, or autos from damaging levies. Industries that employ hundreds of thousands of workers on both sides of the border are already operating under structural uncertainty.

Now layer in the rhetoric. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called CUSMA a "bad deal" for Americans that could "lapse" this summer. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has publicly stated that Canada is lagging Mexico in resolving trade irritants. Mexico has already scheduled a formal bilateral negotiating round with the US for late May. According to its own opposition leader, Canada has not had substantive negotiations in five months.

Meanwhile, Carney recorded a video address telling Canadians that the country's dependence on the US has become a "weakness." He did not mention Trump by name. He did not need to.

The Canadians are not panicking. They are positioning.

What the advisory committee reveals

When a G7 government assembles this kind of stakeholder foundation, it is not a signal of confidence. It is a signal of complexity. Carney's team has looked ahead and concluded that no prime minister's office can manage the CUSMA renegotiation unilaterally. They need sectoral intelligence. They need political cover. They need to know which industries can absorb pain and which ones will break.

That is exactly the kind of intelligence your board should be building right now.

The CUSMA review is not a background event. It is a potential restructuring of the North American trade architecture that has governed supply chains, investment flows, and competitive positioning for more than thirty years. The last time this agreement was renegotiated, companies with formal stakeholder engagement processes were better positioned to flag risks, adapt sourcing decisions, and communicate credibly with investors. Companies that had been watching from the sidelines were surprised.

The US-Canada bilateral tension also has a China dimension that matters for your strategy. Lutnick publicly attacked Carney for pursuing trade diversification with China, calling it "nuts." Canada's response has been to accelerate that strategy anyway, including new space-launch legislation designed to reduce reliance on foreign launch capacity. Ottawa is building optionality. The question for your board is whether you are doing the same.

What your company should be doing right now

First, map your CUSMA exposure specifically. Rules of origin, tariff classifications, sector-specific carve-outs — this is not generic trade policy. It is your cost structure.

Second, do not assume the exemptions hold. "USMCA-compliant" is a legal status, not a political guarantee. Steel and aluminum proved that. Autos may prove it again.

Third, watch Mexico. The US-Mexico bilateral round in late May is a structural signal. If the US and Mexico advance without Canada, the trilateral framework fractures in ways that will reshape North American supply chain decisions for a generation.

Fourth, build your government engagement function now, before the pressure peaks. The companies with stakeholder relationships in place will shape outcomes. The companies without them will read about outcomes in the news.

Carney just put 24 serious people at a table to defend Canadian economic interests. Your competitors are watching. Your supply chain is exposed.

Are you responding reactively?

Caracal Global is your fractional Chief Geopolitical Officer. We monitor geopolitical signals daily — tariff announcements, military movements, policy shifts, trade negotiations, export control changes, and competitive positioning. We translate these signals into what they mean for your business. And we help your board move from reaction to strategy.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc.

You can always reach me @ marc@caracal.global.

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Marc A. Ross is a geopolitical strategist and the founder of Caracal Global, a fractional Chief Geopolitical Officer service for Fortune 1,000 companies and private equity firms. He publishes the Caracal Global Daily — what a Chief Geopolitical Officer monitors every morning. Subscribe at caracal.global/contact.